Final Calls made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
For months this site has tracked polls, ratings and money without telling you what we think will happen. This is where that changes. Our Final Call is our own projection for the 25 races most likely to decide control of Congress and the statehouses: 10 Senate seats, 9 House districts and 6 governorships. Each call has a winner, a margin and a confidence level, and each one links to the full case behind it, including what would make us wrong.
- The environment: Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8.7 points in Silver Bulletin’s average (8.2 in RealClearPolling’s), and Trump’s approval is 38.2% approve, 60.3% disapprove in RealClearPolling’s average.
- Senate: We call a 52–48 Democratic majority. Four of those five pickups are toss-ups, so a range of 50 to 53 Democratic seats is plausible.
- Our boldest calls: Talarico in Texas, Hinson holding Iowa against the national tide, Gluesenkamp Perez holding WA-03 despite trailing in every poll, and Republican Rick Jackson winning Georgia’s governorship while Jon Ossoff wins the state’s Senate race.
Senate: every call
| Race | Our call | Margin | Confidence | Seat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | Troy Jackson (D) | +2 | Toss-up, tilt D | D flip |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola (D) | +2 | Toss-up, tilt D | D flip |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | +1 | Pure toss-up | R hold |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | +3 | Tilt R | R hold |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | +2 | Toss-up, tilt D | D flip |
| Texas | James Talarico (D) | +1 | Pure toss-up | D flip |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) | +3 | Lean D | D hold |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper (D) | +11 | Likely D | D flip |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas (D) | +6 | Likely D | D hold |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | +4 | Lean R | R hold |
The Senate is 53–47 Republican today, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. Our calls give them five pickups and no losses. Outside our slate we expect seats to go as forecasters rate them: Jon Ossoff holds Georgia (polling averages put him about 8 points ahead), and Republicans hold South Carolina and Florida. Our math also assumes Republican Pete Ricketts holds Nebraska against independent Dan Osborn.
For comparison, Silver Bulletin put Democrats’ Senate odds at about 75% after an October 19 update, and Polymarket traders had them near 67% on October 29.
House: every call
| Race | Our call | Margin | Confidence | Seat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | +1 | Toss-up | R hold |
| PA-07 | Bob Brooks (D) | +4 | Lean D | D flip |
| PA-08 | Paige Cognetti (D) | +3 | Lean D | D flip |
| PA-10 | Janelle Stelson (D) | +1 | Toss-up | D flip |
| AZ-01 | Amish Shah (D) | +3 | Lean D | D flip |
| NY-17 | Cait Conley (D) | +2 | Toss-up | D flip |
| VA-01 | Shannon Taylor (D) | +2 | Toss-up | D flip |
| WA-03 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) | +1 | Toss-up | D hold |
| OH-09 | Marcy Kaptur (D) | +2 | Toss-up | D hold |
We did not project an exact House seat count. Decision Desk HQ’s forecast gives Democrats an 80% chance of a majority, with a median of 238 seats, and Kalshi and Polymarket price Democratic control at 91% and 93%. Our nine districts are the tests of how big the wave is: if Democrats are losing races like PA-10 and VA-01, the majority will be narrower than the markets expect.
Governors: every call
| Race | Our call | Margin | Confidence | Seat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Rick Jackson (R) | +1 | Pure toss-up | R hold |
| Kansas | Ty Masterson (R) | +5 | Lean R | R flip |
| Nevada | Aaron Ford (D) | +2 | Toss-up, tilt D | D flip |
| Ohio | Amy Acton (D) | +4 | Lean D | D flip |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley (D) | +5 | Lean D | D hold |
| Iowa | Rob Sand (D) | +6 | Lean D | D flip |
How we make the call
Our Final Call is a judgment, not a computer model. For every race we:
- Start with nonpartisan likely-voter polls released in the final weeks, and give less weight to campaign-sponsored and partisan-affiliated pollsters, which we flag in every table.
- Adjust for each state’s polling history. Texas, Ohio and Iowa polls have tended to underestimate Republicans in recent cycles; Susan Collins has repeatedly run ahead of her polls.
- Check the polls against everything else: early-vote data, fundraising and outside spending, candidate-specific strengths, and the ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and Split Ticket.
- Note the prediction markets without deferring to them. We disagree with them in several races, most visibly the Georgia governor’s race.
What our confidence labels mean
| Label | Roughly how often we expect it to hold |
|---|---|
| Pure toss-up | About 50–55%. We’re picking a side, not claiming certainty. |
| Toss-up, tilt | About 55–65%. |
| Lean | About 65–80%. |
| Likely | About 80–95%. |
With 13 of our 25 calls rated some form of toss-up, we expect to get several races wrong. That is the honest math of close elections, and it is why every article includes a “What would make us wrong” section.
On election night, every Final Call on this page gets marked right or wrong as races are called. Races like Alaska (ranked-choice counting can run about two weeks), Maine, Arizona and Washington may take days. See poll-closing times by state →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Senate in 2026?
Our Final Call is a 52–48 Democratic Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four seats from the current 53–47 Republican majority; we project pickups in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska and Texas, with no Democratic losses.
Who will win the House in 2026?
We project Democrats win the House. Of the seven Republican-held seats in our slate, we call six for Democrats; both Democratic seats we examined hold. Decision Desk HQ’s forecast gives Democrats an 80% chance with a median of 238 seats.
How accurate are these predictions?
Each call carries a confidence label. Our pure toss-ups are close to coin flips, and we expect to miss some of them. We will grade every call against the results on election night and keep the scorecard public.
Is Election Tracker Live endorsing any candidate?
No. Our Final Call is an analytical projection of who we think will win, not a statement of who should win.
A Democratic Senate, 52–48. A Democratic House. Democrats net two governorships among the six we called. The national environment is the strongest signal in this election, and in most close races we followed it. Where we didn’t, we explain why.
Sources
- Silver Bulletin: Generic ballot average (Oct. 28)
- RealClearPolling: Generic congressional vote
- RealClearPolling: Trump approval
- Newsweek: Nate Silver revises Democrats’ Senate chances
- Polymarket: Which party will win the Senate
- GV Wire: Who will control Congress? What the polls show (DDHQ forecast)
- DeFi Rate: House control odds
- 270toWin: Cook Political Report House ratings
Race-level sources are listed in each Final Call article.