2026 Midterm Elections

Alaska Senate — Peltola outperforms. Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) led incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) roughly 48% to 43% (~63,800 to ~56,700) with 98% of precincts reporting. Both advance to the November ranked-choice general along with two others. The controversial “Decoy Dan” — Republican Daniel J. Sullivan of Petersburg, whom the Alaska GOP fought to keep off the ballot — is on track for a top-four spot at ~2.4%, giving voters two candidates named Dan Sullivan on the November ballot. Trump had personally urged Alaskans not to vote for the challenger. The fourth spot remained too close to call, with Democrat David Leslie leading Republican Gerald Heikes by roughly two dozen votes. Peltola outraised Sullivan roughly $18M to $8M in 2026, and she recently rejected fundraising support from Kamala Harris in an effort to hold her crossover appeal.

Florida — matchups set. Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds (47.8%) will face former GOP Rep. David Jolly (61%) for governor. Donalds won the nomination over Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (DeSantis’ pick), James Fishback, and former House Speaker Paul Renner — a clear miss for the governor. Jolly left the Republican Party in 2018 and registered as a Democrat in 2025; he is the second consecutive party-switcher Florida Democrats have nominated for governor after Charlie Crist in 2022. For Senate, appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (75.3%) will face state Rep. Angie Nixon in the special election to complete Rubio’s term. Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, upset former NSC aide Alex Vindman despite being substantially outraised. Nixon becomes the fourth DSA-adjacent progressive to win a major primary this cycle after El-Sayed (MI-Sen), Flanagan (MN-Sen), and Hong’s narrow loss in WI-Gov.

Wyoming — Trump’s pick loses the governor’s race. Rep. Harriet Hageman (R, Trump-endorsed) won the crowded 5-way GOP Senate primary to replace retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis. She faces former state Rep. James Byrd (D). But in the open governor’s race, state Sen. Eric Barlow defeated Megan Degenfelder (state superintendent, Trump-endorsed) and businessman Brent Bien (state party-endorsed). Former state Senate Minority Leader Lisa Kinney is the likely Democratic nominee. This is the first time in 32 years that Wyoming has had open seats for governor, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House at the same time. Wyoming last elected a Democratic senator in 1970; Trump carried the state by 46 points in 2024. Safe R at every level, but the Barlow win is the third Trump endorsement to lose in eight days.

California 14th — Wahab holds off the AIPAC spend. State Sen. Aisha Wahab led BART Board President Melissa Hernandez by roughly 1,300 votes (51%–49%) as of Wednesday morning, in a race where AIPAC’s United Democracy Project spent nearly $2.5 million against Wahab in the closing weeks. Late counting continues in Alameda County and certification is set for September 25. Wahab, the first Muslim and Afghan American elected to the California State Senate, will serve out the remainder of Eric Swalwell’s term (through January 3) if the lead holds, then faces Hernandez a third time in the November general for the full term under California’s new Proposition 50 map. The seat stays vacant until she is sworn in.

Florida-07 — another Trump House incumbent loses. Republican Rep. Cory Mills, Trump-endorsed, lost his primary amid a flurry of probes and negative publicity. Trump’s previously near-perfect House endorsement record in 2026 cracked Tuesday night. Combined with Mike Lindell’s loss in Minnesota (Aug 11) and Megan Degenfelder’s loss in Wyoming, that’s three Trump-endorsed statewide or House candidates defeated in eight days.

South Carolina Senate special — runoff. Appointed Sen. Darline Graham led the ten-candidate field with roughly 33%, short of the majority needed to win outright. Rep. Ralph Norman finished second at about 24%, edging Rep. Russell Fry (~20%). Former Gov. Mark Sanford took about 15% and is eliminated. Graham and Norman meet in an August 25 runoff; the winner faces Democrat Annie Andrews in November.

Minnesota — the progressive wave continues. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated Rep. Angie Craig for the Democratic Senate nomination, roughly 59%–40%. On the Republican side, former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya won the nomination. General: Flanagan (D) vs. Tafoya (R).

Minnesota Governor. With Gov. Tim Walz retiring, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) faces House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R). Demuth beat Trump-endorsed Mike Lindell (~31%) and party-endorsed Kendall Qualls (~21%).

Wisconsin Governor — a photo finish. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong by roughly 3,200 votes — 0.4 points. AP called it at 2:34 a.m. after Hong conceded, foreclosing the recount she would otherwise have been entitled to request. Crowley would be Wisconsin’s first Black governor. Notably, Sanders and AOC sat this one out. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R, Trump-endorsed) won the Republican nomination.

Connecticut. Gov. Ned Lamont turned back state Rep. Josh Elliott’s challenge from the left 68%–32% — the first primary challenge to a sitting Connecticut governor in 48 years. In CT-01, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin defeated 14-term Rep. John Larson about 53.5%–34.7%.

Alabama — the new map’s first test. In AL-02, redrawn roughly 22 points to the right and now the GOP’s top target against freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D), Trump-endorsed state Rep. Rhett Marques was the projected winner.

Sen. Darline Graham — appointed to the seat by Gov. Henry McMaster three days after her brother Lindsey Graham’s death from a torn aorta on July 11 — finished first but could not clear 50% against a field of ten, forcing a head-to-head runoff on August 25.

This is now a direct test of Trump’s endorsement. Trump backed Graham and said he plans to campaign for her in the runoff. Ralph Norman, who placed third in June’s governor primary before pivoting to this race, said he had wanted the endorsement but that South Carolina voters will decide the seat, and has agreed to debate Graham before the runoff.

The eliminated vote is the whole game: Fry’s ~20% and Sanford’s ~15% are up for grabs in a two-week sprint. The nominee faces Charleston pediatrician Annie Andrews (D), who won her primary outright in June. Rated Likely R.

The closest statewide result of the cycle. David Crowley beat Francesca Hong by roughly 3,200 votes out of some 700,000 — four-tenths of a point with 99% counted. Hong conceded in the early hours, and the AP declared Crowley the winner at 2:34 a.m. — the concession removed the recount she could have requested under Wisconsin’s 1% rule.

Hong led public polling for most of the closing stretch and would have been the highest-profile democratic socialist nominee of the cycle. Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, who backed the winners in Michigan and Minnesota, declined to endorse here. Crowley would be Wisconsin’s first Black governor. Tiffany, endorsed by Trump, will run against “Madison socialism” regardless of which Democrat he drew. Trump carried Wisconsin by under a point in 2024. Toss-Up.

Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin defeated Rep. John Larson, who was seeking a 15th term, by nearly 19 points. Bronin had signaled the seriousness of the challenge by beating Larson for the state party endorsement at the May convention. Larson, 78, had faced questions about his health since a 2025 incident on the House floor.

The pattern: Larson is the third House incumbent ousted in a primary this cycle from the Democratic side, after Thomas Massie (KY-04, R) and Shri Thanedar (MI-13, D). CT-01 gave Larson 63% in 2024, so the primary effectively decides the seat.

Gov. Josh Green (D) took about 81% in a four-way primary. In HI-01, moderate Rep. Ed Case turned back a challenge from progressive state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, roughly 57%–34% — one of the few places this month where the establishment candidate held. Rep. Jill Tokuda won renomination in HI-02 with about 83%.

The Senate has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents who organize with Democrats. The House has 431 seated members: 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, one Independent, and four vacancies in CA-14, TX-23, FL-20, and GA-13. CA-14 was decided by the Aug 18 special (Wahab leads narrowly, pending certification and swearing-in); GA-13 is filled by the August 25 runoff. TX-23 and FL-20 still have no scheduled date.

A Cleveland-area Republican seat that was not on anyone’s battleground list in July is now a Democratic target. Rep. Max Miller is the subject of a House Ethics Committee investigation opened August 4 — at his own request — into whether he may have engaged in domestic violence and abuse or illegal drug use. The allegations, made by his former wife in divorce and custody filings, are contested and unadjudicated; Miller denies them.

The political facts are not in dispute. Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, Miller’s former father-in-law, publicly said Miller should not serve in the House. Republican resignation calls followed. Senate Majority Leader Thune declined to weigh in, calling it a family matter.

The mechanical problem: Ohio law requires the nominee to withdraw before county party chairs can name a replacement. Miller refused, the August 10 deadline passed, and Republicans have no way to remove him from the November ballot. Senior GOP House strategists consider the seat lost; his opponent, union ironworker Brian Poindexter, is fundraising on it.

August 25 — : South Carolina Republican Senate runoff (Darline Graham vs. Ralph Norman) — Trump has said he will campaign for Graham; GA-13 special runoff (Marcye Scott vs. Everton Blair, both D); Oklahoma Democratic Senate runoff (N’Kiyla Thomas vs. Jim Priest).
September 8 — : New Hampshire primary — the last competitive Senate nomination on the board (Pappas favored on the Dem side; Sununu vs. Scott Brown on the GOP side).
November 3 — : Election Day.

Still unscheduled: special elections in TX-23 and FL-20.

Michigan Senate. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary despite an 8-to-1 spending disadvantage. Mike Rogers had the Republican nomination locked up. General: El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R).

Michigan Governor: Trump-endorsed Rep. John James won the GOP primary; Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson won the Democratic nomination. Independent Mike Duggan waits in November.

Kansas Supreme Court amendment — REJECTED roughly 62%–38% — the same low-turnout gambit that failed on abortion rights in 2022. Kansas Governor: Senate President Ty Masterson (R) vs. state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D). Kansas Senate: pastor Adam Hamilton won an 11-candidate Democratic primary.

Missouri: Amendment 4 (district-by-district approval for initiatives) was crushed ~80% No; Amendment 5 (income tax for sales tax) rejected ~83% No. MO-01: Rep. Wesley Bell beat former Rep. Cori Bush again, 59%–37%. MO-05: state Sen. Rick Brattin (R) faces Rep. Emanuel Cleaver under the new gerrymander.

Washington: in WA-03, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) and John Braun (R) advanced separated by just 263 votes.

South Dakota Governor (R) runoff: Gov. Larry Rhoden routed Toby Doeden 71%–29%, winning 64 of 66 counties. Faces Democrat Dan Ahlers. Safe R.

GA-13 special: no candidate cleared 50%. Marcye Scott (46.8%) and Everton Blair (36.7%) advance to the August 25 runoff. That winner serves only until January; state Rep. Jasmine Clark takes over after winning the May primary for the full term.

SC Senate filing: twelve Republicans filed; the SCGOP decertified three under a July 1 rule requiring a recent record of voting in GOP statewide primaries. Ten names appeared on the August 11 ballot.

July 21: Andy Biggs won the Republican governor nomination with roughly 74% and will face Katie Hobbs. In the open AZ-01 battleground, Amish Shah won the Democratic primary and will face Republican Jay Feely. Mark Lamb won the Republican nomination in AZ-05. Certified August 6.

Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee. Delegates from Maine’s 16 counties selected the former state Senate president 566 to 5 over Saundra Pelletier. Jackson replaces Graham Platner, who won the June 9 primary with 77.7% and withdrew July 8. General: Jackson (D) vs. Sen. Susan Collins (R) — a three-month sprint in a state Harris won by roughly seven points.

Six sitting members of Congress have now lost renomination this cycle — and the causes split cleanly by party.

Republicans lost to Trump — or fell despite him. Sen. John Cornyn fell to Ken Paxton 62.8%–37.2% after Trump’s endorsement. Sen. Bill Cassidy was knocked out of Louisiana’s May 16 primary, completing the sweep of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict after Jan. 6. Rep. Thomas Massie lost KY-04 to Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein in the most expensive House primary in U.S. history. And on Aug 18, Trump-endorsed Rep. Cory Mills (FL-07) lost his primary amid probes and negative publicity — the first Trump-endorsed House incumbent to fall this cycle.

Democrats lost to their left, and to the calendar. Rep. Shri Thanedar lost MI-13 to Sanders-backed Donavan McKinney on August 4. Rep. John Larson lost CT-01 on August 11 to a challenger running on generational change. Add the Senate primaries in Michigan, Minnesota, and Florida, where establishment-backed candidates lost to progressives in open-seat races.

But the pattern has a hard limit: statewide incumbents are holding. No sitting governor has lost a primary in 2026. Ned Lamont beat a challenge from his left 68–32 on the same night Larson fell. The insurgent wins have come almost entirely in open seats and House districts, not against incumbents with statewide records to run on.

Trump’s primary endorsement record went from nearly unbroken to visibly cracked between August 11 and August 18.

Wins that held: Byron Donalds (FL Gov, 47.8%), Harriet Hageman (WY Sen), Ashley Moody (FL Sen, 75.3%), Tom Tiffany (WI Gov Republican primary), Barry Moore (AL Sen, June).

Losses: Mike Lindell (MN Gov, Aug 11) — beaten by party-endorsed Lisa Demuth by 14 points. Megan Degenfelder (WY Gov, Aug 18) — beaten by state Sen. Eric Barlow. Rep. Cory Mills (FL-07, Aug 18) — the first Trump-endorsed House incumbent to lose renomination in 2026, ousted amid a flurry of probes.

Still to test: Sen. Darline Graham in the August 25 SC Senate runoff. Trump has said he will campaign for her against Ralph Norman.

Georgia Governor (R) runoff: billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson narrowly defeated Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones. General: Jackson (R) vs. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

Georgia Senate (R) runoff: Rep. Mike Collins won handily over Derek Dooley. General: Collins (R) vs. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) — Cook rates Lean D.

Georgia redistricting — SCRAPPED. The legislature convened June 17 and both chambers refused to redraw maps. Georgia uses existing maps for 2026 and 2028.

Alabama Senate (R) runoff: Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore defeated Jared Hudson. Safe R.

Oklahoma Senate: Rep. Kevin Hern won the GOP primary with 67.6%. Democratic runoff Thomas vs. Priest on August 25. Safe R.

CA-14 special primary: Wahab (43%) and Hernandez (17%) advanced; Wahab held on in the Aug 18 runoff.

Maine Senate: Graham Platner (D) won 77.7% and withdrew July 8; Maine Democrats replaced him with Troy Jackson at the July 25 convention.

Maine Governor (RCV): Hannah Pingree won the Democratic nomination on June 19 on ranked-choice transfers; Bobby Charles won the GOP tabulation with 60%. Independent Rick Bennett makes it a three-way.

South Carolina Governor: Wilson won the June 23 runoff roughly two-to-one after consolidating the eliminated field.

South Carolina Senate: Lindsey Graham won the June 9 primary but died July 11. Darline Graham was appointed and now faces Ralph Norman in the August 25 special runoff.

Nevada: AG Aaron Ford (D) was uncontested. General: Ford vs. Gov. Joe Lombardo (R).

Iowa Senate: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) cruised; Paralympian state Rep. Josh Turek (D) defeated Zach Wahls 62.6%–37.4%.

Iowa Governor: Zach Lahn (R) edged Trump-endorsed Rep. Feenstra by under a point and faces Dem Auditor Rob Sand.

Montana Senate: Trump-endorsed Kurt Alme (R) took 76.2%; Alani Bankhead (D) won despite GOP super PAC interference.

California Governor: Steve Hilton (R) and Xavier Becerra (D) advanced from the top-two primary.

NJ-07: Rebecca Bennett (D) won 46% and faces Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R).

New Mexico Governor: Deb Haaland (D) could become the first Native American woman governor; she faces Gregg Hull (R).

Ken Paxton crushed four-term incumbent John Cornyn, 62.8% to 37.2% — a 25.6-point blowout that exceeded every public poll after Trump’s May 19 endorsement. Paxton faces Democratic nominee James Talarico in November, and July NYT/Siena polling had the general tied 47–47.

Full analysis →

Twelve states have actively redrawn or are redrawing congressional maps mid-decade. Cook moved 12 House races on May 8 because of FL, VA, and TN — 11 of those moves favored Republicans. On May 13, Cook moved MO-05 from Safe D to Safe R after Missouri’s Supreme Court locked in the gerrymander targeting Rep. Emanuel Cleaver.

Alabama — first vote under the new map, August 11. AL-02 shifted roughly 22 points right, making freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D) the GOP’s marquee House target; Trump-endorsed state Rep. Rhett Marques was the projected winner of the six-candidate Republican field.

California — Prop 50 in force for 2026. The Aug 18 CA-14 special ran under the old lines because it was for the remainder of the term; November races use the new map, which reshuffles a handful of Democratic-held seats and reshapes the CA-14 boundary Wahab is running for.

Georgia — SCRAPPED (June 17). South Carolina — DEAD (May 27). Virginia — OVER (SCOTUS rejected the Democrats’ emergency application May 16).

Florida’s new map is signed but litigated — Democrats say it eliminates four seats currently or recently held by Democrats. SCOTUS gutted Section 2 of the VRA in Louisiana v. Callais (6-3, Apr 29). Tennessee signed a map splitting Rep. Steve Cohen’s Memphis district. GOP-led states hold a ~17-seat redistricting advantage vs. ~6 for Democrats.

The House has 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, 1 Independent who caucuses with Republicans, and 4 vacancies. With 431 seated members, 216 votes currently form a majority. The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. Democrats have overperformed in every special election since January 2025. Generic ballot polling in July ranged from D+3 to D+11. As of May 2026, 56 House members had announced retirement — 36 Republicans vs. 22 Democrats. Cook House summary (May 13): 184 Solid D, 188 Solid R, 23 Likely/Lean D, 22 Likely/Lean R.

Trump’s approval has settled below 40% across a string of late-July surveys. CBS News/YouGov put him at 39% approve, 61% disapprove; Emerson had 39/57; the RealClearPolitics average stood at roughly 41/57 — a net rating of −18 to −22, near his second-term low. Among independents, approval remains in the low-to-mid 30s.

A newer soft spot: approval of U.S. military action against Iran has fallen to 39%, down from 44% in March (CBS/YouGov), with a plurality expecting the conflict to run for months.

Gas prices reversed course. The AAA national average is $4.086 on August 19, up five cents from a week ago and back near summer highs after a brief mid-August dip. AAA’s own headline: “After Falling for a Week, National Average Climbing Again.” Prices remain sharply higher than a year ago: the year-ago average was $3.13. Hawaii is the most expensive state at ~$5.42; Vermont, New Jersey, and Delaware sit in the $3.85–$4.11 range. Cost of living remains the administration’s weakest issue and the near-term direction has stopped helping.

Generic ballot polling has spread unusually wide: Ipsos/Washington Post D+3 (48–45), CNBC/Hart D+4 (49–45), the FiftyPlusOne aggregate D+5 (49.2–43.9), and Emerson D+11 (53–42). Emerson is the clear outlier; the cluster sits around D+3 to D+5.

State Sen. Aisha Wahab led BART Board President Melissa Hernandez by about 1,300 votes (51%–49%) as of Wednesday morning, with counting continuing in Alameda County. AIPAC’s United Democracy Project spent nearly $2.5 million against Wahab in the closing weeks. Certification is set for September 25. Wahab will serve out Swalwell’s term through January 3 if the lead holds; the seat stays vacant until she is sworn in. Both candidates face off again in November for the full term under the new Prop 50 map.

Marcye Scott (46.8%) and Everton Blair (36.7%) advance to the August 25 runoff. The seat stays vacant until the winner is sworn in, and that member serves only until January. For the full term: state Rep. Jasmine Clark won the May 19 Democratic primary at 58.7% — a safe hold.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) resigned amid a sexual misconduct scandal. Gov. Abbott has still not called a special election — after the vacancy. Texas law gives the governor broad discretion and sets no deadline. The likely matchup is Democrat Katy Padilla Stout vs. Republican Brandon Herrera in an R+7 district. The delay preserves the GOP’s slim working majority.

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) resigned April 21 — ago. D+12 district and a safe Democratic hold whenever Gov. DeSantis calls the election.

The Supreme Court (6-3) struck down Louisiana’s majority-Black congressional district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, severely weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Justice Kagan wrote in dissent that the majority left Section 2 all but a dead letter. Cook moved 12 House races on May 8 — 11 favoring Republicans. Alabama’s cleared map produced its first primaries on August 11.

The Ohio Coalition to End Qualified Immunity needed 413,488 valid signatures by July 1, 2026. As of mid-July no submission had been publicly reported, so the amendment appears unlikely to reach voters this November. National polling shows 63% support for ending qualified immunity (Cato/YouGov). Full analysis →

Democrat Analilia Mejia won NJ-11 on April 16. Republican James Gallagher held CA-01 and was sworn in June 10. Democrat Chedrick Greene won Michigan’s state Senate District 35 on May 5. And on August 18, progressive state Sen. Aisha Wahab held CA-14 for the Democrats despite a $2.5M AIPAC-funded campaign against her. Democrats have overperformed their 2024 presidential margins in every federal special election since January 2025 — the single most reliable indicator on this page.

The Texas Senate primary consumed $125M+ (AdImpact) — the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history. Alaska is now attracting Senate-defining money, with the Senate Leadership Fund committing $17M for Sullivan and the Senate Majority PAC $12M for Peltola. Expect a South Carolina spending spike through Aug 25 as Trump campaigns for Graham in the runoff.