2026 Midterm Elections

Senate. On October 6, Cook Political Report moved Kansas from Lean R to Toss-Up, New Hampshire from Toss-Up to Lean D, and North Carolina from Lean D to Likely D, widening the range of possible Democratic pickups from two seats to six. Cook rates seven seats as Toss-Ups: six held by Republicans (Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas) and one held by Democrats (Michigan). Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a 51-seat majority. The same day, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Alaska from Toss-Up to Leans Democratic and South Carolina from Safe R to Likely R; its September 22 moves put Michigan at Leans D, Iowa at Toss-Up, and Kansas at Leans R.

Earlier Cook moves: Texas and Iowa from Lean R to Toss-Up (Aug. 20); New Hampshire from Lean D to Toss-Up (Sept. 15, since reversed); Georgia from Lean D to Likely D, Kansas from Likely R to Lean R, and South Carolina from Solid R to Likely R (all Sept. 23).

House. Cook’s October 9 update moved 18 races toward Democrats, two weeks after 15 moved on September 25. Cook now shows 213 seats at least leaning Democratic (185 Solid, 16 Likely, 12 Lean), 201 at least leaning Republican (174 Solid, 18 Likely, 9 Lean), and 21 Toss-Ups, 15 of them Republican-held. Its most likely outcome is a Democratic gain of 9 to 19 seats, for 224 to 234 in total.

Models and markets. Prediction markets priced Democratic Senate control at about 62% on October 13 (Kalshi about 61%, Polymarket about 64%), down from about 66% on October 5, and Democratic House control at about 90%. The Silver Bulletin’s House model gave Democrats about 93% on October 12. Decision Desk HQ’s most recent forecast we could confirm (Sept. 28) gave Democrats a 54% chance in the Senate and 75% in the House.

Michigan (Oct. 8, Grand Rapids). Mike Rogers (R) repeatedly called Abdul El-Sayed (D) a “con man,” questioned his medical credentials, and, without evidence, tied him to terrorist groups; El-Sayed called Rogers “desperate” and “weak.” Rogers also broke with Trump over the 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and the Iran war, which El-Sayed said had “everything to do with his sagging poll numbers.” The moderator said the two kept arguing through the commercial breaks. A Fox News poll released October 1 had El-Sayed ahead 50–49 among likely voters. They meet again October 21.

Georgia (Oct. 8, Atlanta). Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) called Rep. Mike Collins (R) a “bigot” over online white-supremacist posts by a former aide and his son-in-law, which Collins says he has condemned, and pressed him at least eight times to explain how Trump’s tariffs have helped Georgians. Collins said the tariffs are “making it fair” for businesses shipping through Georgia’s ports, backed the Iran war, and cast Ossoff as a “trust fund kid.” He also tried to tie Ossoff to the streamer Hasan Piker and to El-Sayed, whom Ossoff has endorsed.

Maine (Oct. 8, second of four). Democrat Troy Jackson accused Sen. Susan Collins and her husband of profiting from the Iran war. Collins called the charge “absolutely outrageous” and demanded an apology; Jackson did not give one. The debate also covered corruption allegations, ICE, abortion, and energy prices. A Washington Post-Schar poll released October 9 had Jackson ahead 50–46. The third debate is October 13 (WABI and WAGM) and the fourth is October 15 in Bangor.

Iowa (Oct. 7; second debate October 13). Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D) clashed over tariffs, immigration, Medicaid, and Social Security; CNN noted that Trump’s name was rarely mentioned. Two polls since then have Hinson back in front: Emerson (Oct. 5–6, 650 LV) 47–45 and CNN 45–43. Polymarket gave her about a 57% chance on October 9. The second debate is hosted by WHO 13 and Nexstar, and Iowans can start voting October 15.

The most recent public poll we could confirm in nine battlegrounds. Dates are when each poll was released or listed, not field dates.

Maine: Washington Post-Schar (Oct. 9), Jackson (D) 50, Collins (R) 46.
Iowa: Emerson (Oct. 5–6, 650 LV), Hinson (R) 47, Turek (D) 45; CNN (Oct. 8), Hinson 45, Turek 43.
Ohio: CNN/SSRS (Oct. 8), Brown (D) 49, Husted (R) 43.
Michigan: Fox News (Oct. 1, LV), El-Sayed (D) 50, Rogers (R) 49.
Texas: Fox News (Oct. 1, LV), Talarico (D) 51, Paxton (R) 49.
North Carolina: YouGov/Catawba College (Oct. 7), Cooper (D) 47, Whatley (R) 35.
New Hampshire: St. Anselm College (Oct. 7), Pappas (D) 51, Sununu (R) 44.
Kansas: NYT/Siena (Oct. 7), Marshall (R) 47, Hamilton (D) 46.
Minnesota: Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon (Oct. 12), Flanagan (D) 47, Tafoya (R) 43.

Most of these margins sit inside the polls’ 3–4 point error ranges, and sample types differ (LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters).

Cook moved Kansas from Likely R to Lean R on September 23 and to Toss-Up on October 6; Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Leans R. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. Sen. Roger Marshall faces Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of the country’s largest United Methodist congregation. Polls are a coin flip: NYT/Siena (Oct. 7) has Marshall ahead 47–46, YouGov has Hamilton ahead 48–45, Emerson and Wedgewood each had him up two, and co/efficient (Sept. 8–10, 915 LV) had Marshall ahead 49–44. Vice President JD Vance has campaigned for Marshall. Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in 2024.

The September jobs report, released October 2, showed employers added just 29,000 jobs, far below the roughly 84,000 economists expected, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. August was revised down to 133,000 and July to a loss of 10,000, putting the three-month average near 51,000. Wage growth slowed to 3.0% year over year. After the report, futures markets put the odds of another Fed rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting at about 13%, down from 22% before the release. The October report is not due until November 6, three days after the election.

Gas: AAA’s national average is $4.36 (Oct. 12), down about five cents from a week earlier but roughly $1.25 above a year ago, and the highest ever for this time of year. September averaged $4.33 a gallon, 50 cents above the previous September record set in 2023.

Virginia opened in-person early voting on September 18, the same day Minnesota, South Dakota, and Idaho began in-person absentee voting. Illinois followed September 24, and Vermont is also voting. Arizona, Ohio, Maine, Nebraska, Indiana, New Mexico, and Wyoming were set to open by October 7. Iowa’s in-person and mail voting begins October 15, Texas early voting starts October 19 (), and Florida’s runs October 24–31.

Registration deadlines: the October 5 deadline has passed in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas, and North Carolina’s is October 9. Still ahead: Oct. 13 in Kansas, New Jersey, Oregon, and West Virginia (); Oct. 19 in Michigan and Pennsylvania; Oct. 21 in Nevada; Oct. 24 in New York. Several states also offer same-day registration, so check your state’s rules.

Mail ballots: on September 14, the Supreme Court blocked the administration’s U.S. Postal Service mail-ballot rules from taking effect for 2026. The unsigned order found the government unlikely to succeed on the merits; Justices Alito and Thomas dissented.

The Senate has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with Democrats. The House has 433 seated members: 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, and one independent, Rep. Kevin Kiley of California, who left the GOP in March and still caucuses with Republicans. Aisha Wahab (D, CA-14) was sworn in September 2 after winning her special election 53.1%–46.9%, and Everton Blair Jr. (D, GA-13) on September 1. TX-23 and FL-20 remain vacant with no special election scheduled.

Congress passed a stopgap funding bill through December 11 (the House vote was 370–48), so there is no pre-election shutdown. The House left town early on September 16 and is not scheduled to return until after the election.

On September 3, the Missouri Supreme Court unanimously blocked the Trump-backed 2025 congressional map and ordered it put to voters as a referendum on the November 3 ballot. The U.S. Supreme Court declined to reinstate the map on September 8, September 10, and September 25.

November’s House races therefore run on the 2022 lines, and the nominees chosen in the August primary under the new map stay on the ballot. The biggest effect is in MO-05: Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D) now runs in a district covering most of heavily Democratic Kansas City instead of the one drawn to defeat him, and Cook rates it Solid D against state Sen. Rick Brattin (R).

Massachusetts (Sept. 1). Sen. Ed Markey beat Rep. Seth Moulton 64.7%–35.0% in the Democratic Senate primary. He faces Republican John Deaton. Gov. Maura Healey was unopposed, and Mike Minogue won the Republican nomination 75.8%–24.2% over Brian Shortsleeve. Dan Koh won the open MA-06 Democratic primary.

New Hampshire (Sept. 8). Rep. Chris Pappas won the Democratic Senate nomination easily, and former Sen. John E. Sununu beat former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown by a wide margin (about 70%–25% in early returns) for the Republican nomination. Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) faces Cinde Warmington (D). In the open NH-01, Stefany Shaheen (D) narrowly won a three-way primary and faces Republican Anthony DiLorenzo. NH-02 is a 2024 rematch: Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D) vs. Lily Tang Williams (R).

Rhode Island (Sept. 9). Former CVS executive Helena Foulkes beat Gov. Dan McKee 62.5%–37.5%. It is the first time since 1994 that a sitting Rhode Island Democratic governor has lost a primary, and the first incumbent governor anywhere to lose one since 2018. Aaron Guckian won the Republican primary by 259 votes; the Board of Elections rejected runner-up Elaine Pelino’s request for a full manual recount. Independents Ken Block, Jay Gotra, and C.D. Reynolds are also on the November ballot. Sen. Jack Reed was renominated.

Delaware (Sept. 15). Sen. Chris Coons won renomination with 78% and faces Republican Mike Katz. Rep. Sarah McBride (D) faces Joe Arminio (R).

South Carolina Senate — Graham holds. Appointed Sen. Darline Graham beat Rep. Ralph Norman 193,486 to 175,412 (52.4%–47.6%), carrying 34 of 46 counties on about 12% turnout. Trump rallied for her in Myrtle Beach on August 21 and held a tele-rally the night before the vote, and MAGA Inc. spent more than $800,000. Norman conceded on election night and said he would support her. Graham faces Democrat Annie Andrews in November.

GA-13. Everton Blair Jr. beat Marcye Scott 53.2%–46.8% and was sworn in September 1 to finish the late Rep. David Scott’s term. He is the first openly LGBTQ person elected to Congress from Georgia. State Rep. Jasmine Clark is the nominee for the full term.

Oklahoma. N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, a 31-year-old nurse and self-described democratic socialist, won the Democratic Senate runoff with about 60% of the vote over Jim Priest. She faces Rep. Kevin Hern (R). In the Republican governor runoff, Trump-backed Mike Mazzei edged Attorney General Gentner Drummond 50.3%–49.7%, a margin of about 2,000 votes. Drummond conceded without seeking a recount. Mazzei faces state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson (D).

Cook’s October 9 update shifted 18 races toward Democrats, two weeks after 15 moved on September 25. The 21 Toss-Ups: AZ-06, CA-22, CO-08, FL-14, FL-22, FL-25, IA-02, MI-04, MI-07, MI-10, NC-01, NC-11, NY-17, OH-07, OH-09, PA-08, TX-15, TX-34, VA-01, VA-02, and WI-03 — 15 held by Republicans and six by Democrats. Cook’s most likely outcome is a Democratic gain of 9 to 19 seats, for 224 to 234 in total.

Notable moves: Iowa’s 1st District (Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R) moved from Toss-Up to Lean D, and NC-01 (Rep. Don Davis, D) moved from Lean R to Toss-Up. The 18 moves also touched Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Arkansas, and Indiana and open seats in Nebraska, Iowa, Kentucky, and Maine. Cook said a large Republican ad campaign meant to damage Democratic candidates has not moved the needle.

NC-11 became a Toss-Up after Rep. Chuck Edwards ended his re-election bid on August 5 following an Ethics Committee censure recommendation; Republicans replaced him with Jennifer Balkcom.

Other forecasts: The Silver Bulletin’s House model gave Democrats about 93% on October 12, and prediction markets about 90%. Decision Desk HQ (Sept. 28) gave Democrats a 75% chance, and CBS News’s Battleground Tracker (Sept. 8–11) estimated 228 Democratic seats.

Done: ✓ Oct. 2 September jobs report · ✓ Oct. 5 registration deadline (AZ, FL, GA, OH, TX) · ✓ Oct. 6 & 8 Maine debates · ✓ Oct. 7 Iowa debate · ✓ Oct. 8 Michigan and Georgia debates · ✓ Oct. 9 North Carolina registration deadline · ✓ Oct. 9 Cook House update.

Oct. 13 — : second Iowa Senate debate (WHO 13/Nexstar); third Maine Senate debate (WABI/WAGM); registration deadline in Kansas, New Jersey, Oregon, and West Virginia.
Oct. 14 — : September CPI; CNN town hall with Talarico (Paxton invited).
Oct. 15: final Maine Senate debate (Bangor); in-person and mail voting begins in Iowa.
Oct. 19 — : Texas early voting begins; registration deadline in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Oct. 21: second Michigan Senate debate (WXYZ); Nevada registration deadline.
Oct. 24: Florida early voting begins (through Oct. 31); New York registration deadline.
Oct. 27–28: Federal Reserve meeting.
Nov. 3 — : Election Day.
Nov. 6: October jobs report.
Dec. 11: government funding expires.

Rep. Max Miller is the subject of a House Ethics Committee investigation, opened August 4 at his own request, into allegations by his former wife of domestic violence, abuse, and illegal drug use. The allegations are contested and unadjudicated; Miller denies them. Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, his former father-in-law, has said Miller should not serve. Because Miller refused to withdraw before Ohio’s August 10 deadline, Republicans cannot replace him on the ballot.

Since then: the committee let a September 4 deadline pass without action and has put off any findings until after the election. Speaker Mike Johnson backs Miller’s re-election, a GOP-aligned group is spending about $450,000 for him, and Miller has lent his campaign $1 million. An early-August co/efficient poll (615 LV) had union ironworker Brian Poindexter ahead 47%–33%; no public poll has been released since. The race has turned to attack ads: Miller has threatened legal action over a Poindexter ad narrated by the Summit County sheriff, and he is airing ads about a 1998 arrest of Poindexter that produced no charge. Cook and Inside Elections rate it a Toss-Up.

Democrats won 215 seats in 2024 and need 218 for a majority — a net gain of three. The two vacancies split one apiece: TX-23 was Republican-held, FL-20 Democratic-held. The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms.

Cook’s full board (Oct. 9): 185 Solid D, 16 Likely D, 12 Lean D, 21 Toss-Up, 9 Lean R, 18 Likely R, 174 Solid R. With 213 seats leaning Democratic or better, Democrats would reach 218 by winning five of the 21 Toss-Ups. Cook’s most likely outcome is 224 to 234 Democratic seats.

Open seats: NPR (Sept. 16) counts 60 House members retiring or seeking another office, plus 11 who lost primaries — at least 83 guaranteed open seats. Cook’s open-seat tracker listed 73 (42 R, 31 D) as of August 19.

Approval. Trump’s net approval in the Silver Bulletin average was −22.4 on October 12, near its record low of −23.5. His net ratings on the economy (−33.2), trade (−29.0), and inflation (−48.5) hit all-time lows in early October. Ballotpedia’s average put his September approval at 38%, the low of his second term. Late-September polls: WSJ 37/61 (Sept. 16–21, 1,500 RV), Emerson 39/58, and Reuters/Ipsos 32% approve.

Generic ballot. The Silver Bulletin average was D+8.1 on September 29. Ballotpedia’s average ended September at 50% Democratic, 43% Republican — the highest Democratic share since it began tracking in Trump’s second term. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll (Sept. 23) had Democrats ahead by 12 points among registered voters, and an NYT/Siena poll by 9.

Jobs and prices. September payrolls rose just 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and August was revised down to 133,000. AAA’s national gas average is $4.36 (Oct. 12), after a record September average of $4.33; diesel hit an all-time high of $6.53 on September 22. August CPI ran 3.4% year over year, and September CPI is due October 14. The Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point to 3.75–4.00% on September 16; after the jobs report, markets put the odds of another hike in October at about 13%.

Iran. As of late September there was no ceasefire. The U.S. and Iran traded strikes in early September, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained sharply curtailed. On September 26, Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day plan to reopen the strait. Only 34% approve of the strikes in Reuters/Ipsos polling.

The pitch. At the first-ever Republican midterm convention, in Dallas on September 9, Trump promised a $5,000 “Trump dividend” to every adult citizen if Republicans keep both chambers. In Reuters/Ipsos polling, 63% disapproved.

With early voting underway, the mid-decade redistricting fight is settled for 2026.

New maps in use: Texas (the 2025 Republican map, allowed by the Supreme Court); California (Prop 50); North Carolina; Ohio; Utah (court-ordered, with one Democratic-leaning seat); Florida (signed May 4; the state Supreme Court refused to block it, 6–1); Tennessee (splits Rep. Steve Cohen’s Memphis district, and Cohen is not running); Alabama (the 2023 map the Supreme Court allowed June 2, which cuts AL-02’s Black voting-age population from 48.7% to 39.9%); and Louisiana (eliminates the majority-Black 6th District; House races run as a November 3 all-party primary with December runoffs).

Reversed: Missouri returns to its 2022 map after the state Supreme Court sent the 2025 map to a referendum.

No change: Virginia (the state Supreme Court threw out the voter-approved Democratic map), Georgia (the legislature declined to redraw on June 17), and South Carolina (the bill died May 27). The Supreme Court’s April 29 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais (6–3), which gutted Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, set off much of this.

Primary season ended with 11 House members, two senators, and one governor denied renomination.

House (NPR’s September 16 tally): Dan Crenshaw, Al Green, Julie Johnson, Thomas Massie, Adriano Espaillat, Dan Goldman, Diana DeGette, Shri Thanedar, Andy Ogles, John Larson, and Cory Mills.
Senate: John Cornyn (TX) lost to Ken Paxton 63.8%–36.2%, and Bill Cassidy (LA) was eliminated in the May 16 primary.
Governor: Rhode Island’s Dan McKee lost to Helena Foulkes on September 9 — the first incumbent governor anywhere to lose a primary since 2018.

Not every challenger won: Sen. Ed Markey beat Rep. Seth Moulton by nearly 30 points, Gov. Ned Lamont held Connecticut 68–32, and Rep. Ed Case survived in Hawaii.

After three Trump-endorsed candidates lost between August 11 and August 18, his picks won both marquee runoffs on August 25. Trump rallied for Sen. Darline Graham, who beat Ralph Norman 52.4%–47.6%, and his candidate Mike Mazzei beat Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond by about 2,000 votes for the GOP governor nomination.

Losses: Mike Lindell (MN Gov, Aug. 11), Megan Degenfelder (WY Gov, Aug. 18), and Rep. Cory Mills (FL-07, Aug. 18). In June, Rick Jackson beat Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in Georgia’s governor runoff.
Wins: Ken Paxton (TX Sen), Byron Donalds (FL Gov), Harriet Hageman (WY Sen), Ashley Moody (FL Sen), Tom Tiffany (WI Gov), Barry Moore (AL Sen), Darline Graham (SC Sen), Mike Mazzei (OK Gov).

Recent House specials: Democrat Analilia Mejia won NJ-11 (Apr. 16); Republican James Gallagher held CA-01 (June 2); Aisha Wahab (D) won CA-14 53.1%–46.9% over Melissa Hernandez after AIPAC’s United Democracy Project spent nearly $2.5 million against her; and Everton Blair Jr. won GA-13’s all-Democratic runoff (Aug. 25).

State level: On August 18, Democrat Brandon Dukes flipped Pennsylvania House District 12 in Butler County by 97 votes — a seat Trump carried by 18 points. Ballotpedia counts 13 Republican-held state legislative seats flipped by Democrats in special elections since January 2025.

May 26 · Texas runoff: Ken Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn 63.8%–36.2% after $125M+ in primary spending.
June 2: Hinson (R) vs. Turek (D) set in Iowa; Zach Lahn edged Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra for Iowa governor; Hilton (R) and Becerra (D) advanced in California; Haaland (D) vs. Hull (R) in New Mexico.
June 9–16: Graham Platner won Maine’s Senate primary, then withdrew July 8 (Troy Jackson was nominated July 25, 566–5); Rick Jackson upset Burt Jones in Georgia’s governor runoff; Mike Collins won Georgia’s Senate runoff.
July 21 · Arizona: Andy Biggs won the GOP governor nomination with about 74%.
Aug. 4: Abdul El-Sayed upset Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan; Kansas voters rejected the GOP court amendment 62–38.
Aug. 11: Peggy Flanagan beat Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota; David Crowley beat Francesca Hong by 0.4 points for Wisconsin governor; Luke Bronin ousted Rep. John Larson (CT-01).
Aug. 18: Peltola led Sullivan 49.5–41.4 in Alaska’s top four; Angie Nixon (DSA) upset Alex Vindman in Florida; Eric Barlow beat Trump-backed Megan Degenfelder for Wyoming governor.
Aug. 25 – Sept. 15: runoffs in SC, OK, and GA-13, then MA, NH, RI, and DE (see Latest).

TX-23: Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) resigned April 14 amid a sexual misconduct scandal. Gov. Greg Abbott has not called a special election — later — and NBC DFW reported on August 29 that the seat is not on track to be filled until January. Texas law sets no deadline. The regular November race is Brandon Herrera (R) vs. Katy Padilla Stout (D) in an R+7 district.

FL-20: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) resigned April 21. Gov. Ron DeSantis has not set a date. It is a D+12 district and a safe Democratic hold whenever the election is held.

In Louisiana v. Callais, the Court (6–3) struck down Louisiana’s majority-Black congressional district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, severely weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. In dissent, Justice Kagan wrote that the majority left Section 2 all but a dead letter.

On September 14, an unsigned order blocked the administration’s U.S. Postal Service mail-ballot rules for 2026, finding the government unlikely to succeed on the merits; Justices Alito and Thomas dissented. On August 24, the Court had lifted a separate injunction against the same executive order, 6–3. In September it also declined three times (Sept. 8, 10, and 25) to reinstate Missouri’s 2025 map.

Ohio’s Brown–Husted race is the most expensive Senate contest of the cycle, at $72.1 million in ad spending and reservations as of September 11 (AdImpact). Ohio’s total across all races is about $307 million ($169M Republican, $138M Democratic). Republicans are outspending Democrats in nearly every battleground Senate race; Georgia is the exception. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has committed $33 million in Iowa. In Alaska, SLF committed $17 million for Sullivan and Senate Majority PAC $12 million for Peltola. In North Carolina, Republicans have pulled their spending. The Texas Senate primary alone consumed more than $125 million, the most for any Senate primary in U.S. history.

The Ohio Coalition to End Qualified Immunity needed 413,488 valid signatures by July 1, 2026. As of mid-July no submission had been publicly reported, so the amendment appears unlikely to reach voters this November. National polling shows 63% support for ending qualified immunity (Cato/YouGov). Full analysis →