2026 Midterm Elections

Texas GOP Senate: Ken Paxton crushed four-term incumbent John Cornyn, 62.8% to 37.2% (536,356 to 318,159 votes) — a 25.6-point blowout that wasn’t remotely close. Trump’s May 19 endorsement supercharged a result that exceeded every public poll. Cornyn, the longest-serving Texas senator in state history, becomes the highest-profile victim of Trump’s party purge. Paxton now faces Dem nominee James Talarico in November — and Paxton’s baggage (securities fraud indictment settled 2024, 2023 impeachment acquittal, pending divorce) could make Texas genuinely competitive. Early general election surveys showed Talarico within single digits of both Republicans; expect a rating reassessment.

Texas GOP Attorney General: Middleton defeated Roy, 55.8% to 44.2% (469,864 to 372,289).

House Runoff Results (May 26):
• TX Dem District 14: Bartie 50.2% vs Davis 49.8% — razor-thin margin, recount possible.
• TX Dem District 18: Menefee won 68.6% to Green’s 31.4%.
• TX GOP District 19: Sell won 65.5% to Enriquez’s 34.5%.
• TX Dem District 33: Allred 54.9% vs Johnson 45.1%.
• TX GOP District 35: De La Cruz 54.5% vs Lujan 45.5%.
• TX Dem District 35: Garcia 59.2% vs Galindo 40.8%.

Full analysis →

Georgia GOP Governor: Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (38.7%) and billionaire Rick Jackson (33.2%) advance to June 16 runoff. Carr and Raffensperger eliminated. Over $100M in ad spending. Dem Governor: Keisha Lance Bottoms wins outright at 57.5%.

Georgia GOP Senate: Rep. Mike Collins (41.2%) vs Derek Dooley (28.6%) — June 16 runoff. Trump never endorsed.

GA-13: Former state Rep. Jasmine Clark won Dem primary at 58.7%.

Kentucky KY-04: Thomas Massie is out. Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein won 54.9% to 45.1% — the most expensive House primary in U.S. history ($32.6M).

Kentucky Senate: Andy Barr (R) crushed Daniel Cameron 60.4% to 30.9%. Dem: Charles Booker won 46.8% to McGrath’s 35.8%.

Alabama Senate: Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore (40%) vs former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson (26%) advance to June 16 runoff. AG Steve Marshall eliminated (25%). Tuberville dominated the governor’s race (85.8%).

Full results & analysis →

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), a two-term incumbent, was knocked out of Louisiana’s May 16 primary — the last of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump after Jan. 6 to face electoral consequences. Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow finished first but fell short of 50%; state Treasurer John Fleming advanced to a June 27 runoff. Cassidy finished third with ~25%. In his concession, Cassidy took a veiled swipe at Trump: “You don’t pout, you don’t whine. You don’t claim the election was stolen.” The seat remains Safe R regardless of which Republican wins the runoff.

Eleven states have now actively redrawn or are redrawing congressional maps mid-decade. Cook moved 12 House races on May 8 due to redistricting in FL, VA, and TN — 11 of those moves favored Republicans. On May 13, Cook moved MO-05 from Safe D to Safe R after Missouri’s Supreme Court locked in the GOP gerrymander targeting Rep. Emanuel Cleaver.

South Carolina — DEAD. On May 27, the SC Senate killed the Trump-backed redistricting bill. Twelve Republicans crossed party lines to block cloture, ending the effort to eliminate Rep. James Clyburn’s SC-06. The House had passed a 7-0 Republican map, but early voting for the June 9 primary had already begun on May 26, and several GOP senators said it was too late to change maps. Gov. McMaster expressed disappointment but the session is over. SC redistricting could be revisited for 2028, but it is dead for 2026.

Virginia — OVER. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Virginia Democrats’ emergency application on May 16, leaving the SCOVA ruling intact. The voter-approved redistricting amendment was struck down 4–3 by the Virginia Supreme Court on May 8, which held the General Assembly violated constitutional procedures. Virginia will use the existing 2021 court-drawn maps for 2026. Cook’s May 8 rating moves (VA-01 Likely D → Lean R, VA-02 Lean D → Toss-Up, VA-05 Likely D → Likely R, VA-06 Lean D → Safe R) remain in effect.

Florida’s new map (projected 24R-4D) is signed but still being litigated. SCOTUS gutted the VRA in Louisiana v. Callais (6-3, Apr 29). Tennessee signed a map splitting Rep. Steve Cohen’s Memphis district into three. Louisiana has paused its House primaries to pursue redistricting. Inside Elections moved NJ-07 and PA-10 from Tilt R to Toss-Up, VA-07 from Lean D to Likely D, and WA-03 from Tilt D to Toss-Up on May 21. GOP-led states now hold a ~17-seat redistricting advantage vs. ~6 for Democrats.

*Includes 1 Independent caucusing with GOP. 5 seats currently vacant (CA-01, CA-14, TX-23, FL-20, GA-13). The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. Democrats have overperformed in every special election since January 2025 — including a Michigan state Senate pickup on May 5. Generic ballot average: Dems +6 (FiftyPlusOne, May 23); Data for Progress (May 15–18) has Dems +8. As of May 2026, 56 House members have announced their retirement — 36 Republicans vs. 22 Democrats — the second-most House retirements in a single cycle since 1992. Including 14 Senate retirements, the total congressional departure count of 71 is the highest this century. Cook House summary (May 13): 184 Solid D, 188 Solid R, 23 Likely/Lean D, 22 Likely/Lean R. Polymarket gives Democrats an 81% chance of taking the House (May 27).

Trump hit a new all-time low: 31% approval (American Research Group, May 16–20) — his weakest showing across both terms. Fox News (May 15–18): 39% approve, 61% disapprove — highest disapproval in Fox polling during Trump’s presidency, with Republican net approval falling 14 pts since February. FiftyPlusOne aggregate (May 27): 36.4% approve, 60.1% disapprove. Silver Bulletin net approval: −19.1 (May 27). Strength In Numbers/Verasight (May 18–19): 37% approve, 60% disapprove; worst issue rating is prices/inflation at net −47. Among independents: just 25% approval (ARG). The Iran war (launched Feb 28) remains deeply unpopular — 65% disapprove of Trump’s handling, though US-Iran indirect talks have shown signs of progress in late May. Gas prices peaked at $4.55/gal (AAA, May 21); EIA weekly average hit $4.62 (wk of May 18). Wholesale gasoline futures have dropped sharply on Iran deal optimism — retail prices may follow. Generic ballot: Dems +6 (FiftyPlusOne, May 23); Dems +8 (Data for Progress, May 18); PBS/NPR/Marist has Dems +14, with independents preferring Democrats by 33 pts. Polymarket gives Democrats an 81% chance of winning the House (May 27, up from ~45% earlier this spring), with a full Dem sweep at 40% (Kalshi).

Nebraska Senate: Pete Ricketts (R) defeated four primary challengers. Cindy Burbank won the Dem nomination, but the Nebraska Democratic Party has endorsed independent Dan Osborn for November. Osborn lost to Sen. Fischer by only 6 pts in 2024 in a state Trump won by 20+.

NE-02 (Open — Top Dem Target): Denise Powell (D) won a razor-thin primary over State Sen. John Cavanaugh (~2 pts). Powell, a political organizer and first Latina to file for federal office in Nebraska, will face Trump-endorsed Brinker Harding (R). The “blue dot” district voted for Harris in 2024 and Biden in 2020. The primary drew $5.6M in outside spending — the most expensive Dem primary in the district’s history.

West Virginia Senate: Shelley Moore Capito (R) fended off five primary challengers. Rachel Anderson won the Dem nomination. Safe R (Trump +39 in 2024).

Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) and Jon Husted (R) won their Senate primaries — setting up the cycle’s marquee Senate race. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and Amy Acton (D) won governor primaries. Derek Merrin (R) won OH-9 and will face Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D).

Indiana: Trump-backed challengers defeated 5 of 6 targeted GOP state senators who had blocked Trump’s redistricting push — a dramatic display of Trump’s grip on the party. Only Greg Goode (R) survived. Sen. Jim Banks declared it a “big night for MAGA.” The results may revive Indiana redistricting efforts ahead of November.

The Ohio Coalition to End Qualified Immunity is racing to collect 413,488 valid signatures by July 5, 2026 to place a constitutional amendment on the November ballot. The amendment would strip qualified immunity, sovereign immunity, and prosecutorial immunity from government officials who violate Ohioans’ constitutional rights. AG Dave Yost blocked the petition eight times before the U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way in April 2025. If certified, Ohio would be the first state to end qualified immunity by popular vote. National polling shows 63% support for ending QI (Cato/YouGov); an Ohio-specific Campaign Zero poll found 53% support elimination outright and 87% believe officers should face consequences for rights violations. Full analysis →

Democrat Chedrick Greene won the Michigan state Senate District 35 special election, giving Democrats another overperformance data point. The win keeps Dems in control of the Michigan state Senate — a critical backstop heading into a gubernatorial transition year.

Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) died January 6. R+17 district — safe Republican hold. Special election set for August 4, with the primary on June 2. One of five current House vacancies reducing the GOP’s functional majority margin.

Rep. David Scott (D), the first Black chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, died at age 80 after 23 years in Congress. Special election date still TBD. May 19 primary (final): Former state Rep. Jasmine Clark won the Dem primary for the full term at 58.7%, well ahead of state Sen. Emanuel Jones (7.8%). D+26 district — safe Democratic hold.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) resigned amid a sexual misconduct scandal. Gov. Abbott has still not called a special election — now over 6 weeks after the vacancy. Texas law gives the governor broad discretion; Abbott is under no deadline. The next uniform election date under Texas law is November 3. Dem Katy Padilla Stout has demanded he act immediately. The likely matchup is Stout vs. Republican Brandon Herrera (YouTuber/gun manufacturer). R+7 district under new maps, but Dem special election overperformances make this competitive. The delay benefits the GOP by preserving their slim House majority margin.

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned the same day as Gonzales, also facing sexual misconduct allegations and a pending expulsion vote. D+20 district — safe Democratic hold. Gov. Newsom set special election for August 18, with the primary on June 16.

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) resigned April 21, minutes before the House Ethics Committee was set to recommend expulsion. Found guilty of 25 ethics violations; faces a 15-count federal indictment for allegedly stealing $5M in FEMA disaster relief. D+12 district — safe Democratic hold. Gov. DeSantis to call special election.

Democrat Analilia Mejia won the NJ-11 special election on April 16, filling the seat vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Progressive platform (abolish ICE, universal health care). Mejia faces a June primary for the full term.

The Supreme Court (6-3) struck down Louisiana’s majority-Black congressional district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, severely weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The ruling could put at least 15 House seats held by Black members at risk nationwide. Justice Kagan wrote in dissent that the majority rendered Section 2 “all but a dead letter.” The cascade: Tennessee signed a map splitting Rep. Steve Cohen’s Memphis district (May 7). Missouri’s Supreme Court locked in its gerrymander; Cook moved MO-05 Safe D → Safe R (May 13). The SC House passed a 7-0 R map targeting Rep. Clyburn, but on May 27 the SC Senate killed the bill — 12 Republicans crossed party lines, citing early voting already underway. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Virginia Democrats’ emergency appeal on May 16, ending their bid to use new Dem-drawn maps in 2026. Alabama’s May 19 primary was the first election under a post-Callais redrawn map. Louisiana has paused its House primaries to pursue redistricting. Cook moved 12 House races on May 8 — 11 favoring Republicans. Inside Elections moved NJ-07, PA-10, VA-07, and WA-03 on May 21.

The Iran war, surging gas prices ($4.55/gal avg.), and Trump’s record-low approval are dominating political ad spending. The Texas Senate primary alone consumed $125M+ (AdImpact) — the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history. The Georgia governor’s race saw $100M+ in primary ad spending — third-most expensive gubernatorial primary on record. GOP candidates in competitive districts continue to run on Trump alignment, while Democrats lean into economic pain and war opposition.