Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
A Ford win would unseat an incumbent governor and flip the office back to Democrats.
Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) won in 2022 by 1.5 points, 48.8–47.3, in a state Trump later carried by 3.1 points. His challenger is Attorney General Aaron Ford (D). Also on the ballot: Danielle Ford, a no-party candidate with no relation to the Democrat.
Few major races have less reliable public polling. That makes Nevada’s detailed early-vote data, which the state reports by party, unusually important to our call.
- Our call: Ford by about 2, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: toss-up, tilting Democratic.
- Polls: Sparse and split. The RealClearPolling average is tied at 42–42.
- Early vote: Through October 27, Democrats had cast about 24,000 more ballots than Republicans.
- Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket put Ford at roughly 78–80%.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ford (D) | Lombardo (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research (DGA-backed group) D-sponsored | Oct. 20–25 | 950 LV | 49 | 45 |
| Global Strategy Group D-affiliated | Oct. 8–13 | 700 LV | 47 | 48 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Sept. 22–26 | 708 LV | 40 | 42 |
| Emerson | Sept. 5–8 | 680 LV | 44 | 42 |
Noble Predictive found Danielle Ford, the no-party candidate, at 7%. Two of the four polls here were conducted for Democratic-aligned clients, and the two nonpartisan polls are a month or more old, so we weight this table less than usual.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Oct. 27 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 22 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | Latest found |
| Kalshi | Ford 78¢ | Late Oct. |
| Polymarket | Ford 80¢ | Late Oct. |
The handicappers see a coin flip, and Inside Elections still tilts it toward Lombardo. The markets are much more confident in Ford, largely on the strength of the early vote.
Why we’re calling it for Ford
1. The early vote favors Democrats
Through October 27, registered Democrats made up 40.2% of Nevada’s early ballots, Republicans 34.7% and others 25.1%, a Democratic edge of about 24,000 ballots. Nevada Independent analyst Jon Ralston wrote that the models “have only gotten worse for the GOP.”
2. The national environment is working against an incumbent Republican
Lombardo won by just 1.5 points in 2022, a neutral-to-Republican year. With Democrats leading the national generic ballot by roughly 8 to 9 points, the same performance would likely fall short.
3. The most recent poll, though partisan, points the same way
The latest survey, from a Democratic Governors Association-backed group, has Ford ahead 49–45. Its sponsor demands caution, but it is consistent with the early-vote picture.
Lombardo has a real money advantage: his allied PAC has spent or reserved $29.3 million to about $14.1 million for the main Democratic group. The nonpartisan polls are thin and essentially tied, and Inside Elections still leans Republican. Republicans in Nevada have tended to vote in person on Election Day, so a Democratic early-vote lead can shrink once those ballots are counted. The wild card is Danielle Ford: a shadow PAC with Republican ties is mailing voters that she is the “AOC of Nevada,” which could either siphon progressive votes or confuse voters about which Ford is the Democrat.
What to watch on election night
Nevada’s polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. Pacific). Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno) decide statewide races. Nevada has historically taken days to finish counting mail ballots, so a close race may not be called on election night.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Nevada governor race?
Our Final Call is Aaron Ford (D) by about 2 points over Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), a Democratic pickup, with toss-up confidence.
Who is Danielle Ford?
Danielle Ford is a no-party candidate on the Nevada ballot, unrelated to Democratic nominee Aaron Ford. A Republican-tied PAC has mailed voters describing her as the “AOC of Nevada.”
When will Nevada results be known?
Polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern. Nevada has historically needed several days to count mail ballots, so a close race may stay uncalled past election night.
Ford by 2. The polls can’t settle this one, but the early vote leans Democratic in a strongly Democratic year. Lombardo’s money and a confusing third candidate keep it a toss-up.
Sources
- Ballotpedia: Nevada gubernatorial election, 2026
- DGA: New poll shows Aaron Ford leading Joe Lombardo
- Political Wire: Lombardo barely leads in Nevada
- 270toWin: Nevada governor polls
- The Nevada Independent: Early voting blog, 2026 general
- The Nevada Independent: PAC boosting third-party candidate has GOP ties
- MultiState: Nevada governor race 2026
- DeFi Rate: Nevada governor odds