Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
This is a special election for the seat JD Vance left to become vice president. Husted holds it by appointment.
Two years after losing his own seat, Sherrod Brown is running for the other one. Sen. Jon Husted, appointed to fill JD Vance’s seat, must win this special election to keep it. Trump carried Ohio by 11.2 points in 2024, and Vance won the seat by 6.1 in 2022.
Brown has led nearly every poll this fall. The problem for anyone making a call is that he led the polls in 2024 too, and lost by about 3.6 points.
- Our call: Brown by about 2, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: toss-up, tilting Democratic.
- Polls: Brown leads the 270toWin average 48.3–44.8 (+3.5). Only one late poll, Echelon, has the race tied.
- Early vote: Democrats were 41% of early voters at day 8, Republicans 28%, nearly the reverse of 2024.
- The caveat: Ohio polls underestimated Republicans by about 3.5 points in 2024.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Brown (D) | Husted (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk | Oct. 28 release | 500 LV | 47 | 44 |
| Echelon | Oct. 27 release | 508 LV | 47 | 47 |
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | ~Oct. 23 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 44 |
| Fox News (Beacon/Shaw) | Oct. 15–19 | 1,592 LV | 52 | 47 |
| Marist | Oct. 15–18 | LV | 48 | 44 |
Fox News found Brown ahead by 29 points among the 15% of voters who had already cast ballots. RealClearPolling had Brown +3.1 as of October 7.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Late Oct. |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 7 |
| Silver Bulletin | Brown 73.9% | Early Oct. |
| Kalshi | Brown ~68% | Oct. 28 |
We could not verify a current Inside Elections rating for this race.
Why we’re calling it for Brown
1. The lead is bigger and steadier than 2024’s
Brown has led every nonpartisan poll this fall, by 3 to 5 points, and the Republican-leaning InsiderAdvantage has him ahead by 3. The national environment is also very different: in 2024 Trump won nationally; this year Democrats lead the generic ballot by roughly 8 to 9 points.
2. Early voting looks nothing like 2024
At day 8 of early voting, Democrats made up 41% of early voters and Republicans 28%. At the same point in 2024, it was Republicans 36%, Democrats 26%. Analysts expect the gap to shrink as Election Day voters turn out, but it is a strong start.
3. Brown is not running alone
Democrat Amy Acton leads the governor’s race on the same ballot, and Brown has outraised Husted badly: $23.1 million to $4.8 million in the third quarter, and $61.6 million to $19.2 million for the cycle. Brown’s campaign has used Husted’s votes against Iran war-powers resolutions, data centers and gas prices as its main lines of attack.
The 2024 lesson is hard to ignore. Ohio polls underestimated Republicans by about 3.5 points that year, almost exactly Brown’s current average lead. Husted also has more money behind him once allied outside groups are counted, in a race with $431.7 million in ad spending and reservations, per AdImpact. And the Democratic early-vote edge is expected to shrink. A repeat of 2024’s polling error, and Husted wins.
What to watch on election night
Ohio’s polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, among the earliest in our series. Early and mail ballots are typically among the first results reported, and they lean Democratic this year, so expect Brown to start ahead. The question is how much of that lead survives as Election Day precincts come in.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Ohio Senate race?
Our Final Call is Sherrod Brown by about 2 points, a Democratic pickup, with toss-up confidence.
Why is there a Senate election in Ohio in 2026?
It is a special election for the seat JD Vance vacated to become vice president. Jon Husted was appointed to fill it until the election.
What do the latest Ohio Senate polls show?
Brown leads by about 3.5 points on average, including Suffolk (47–44), Marist (48–44) and Fox News (52–47). Echelon has the race tied 47–47.
Brown by 2. His lead is only as big as Ohio’s last polling miss, so we’ve trimmed it. But this year’s environment, early vote and fundraising are all far better for him than 2024’s, and we think that is enough.
Sources
- 270toWin: Ohio Senate polls
- Fox News poll: Gender gap and pocketbook pain shape Ohio Senate race
- Marist Poll: Midterm elections in Ohio, October 2026
- Spectrum News: Ohio Senate third-quarter fundraising
- Fox19: Ohio’s Senate race among most competitive and expensive
- Kalshi: Ohio Senate odds and early voting
- Newsweek: Sherrod Brown’s polling lead defies Ohio’s Republican shift