Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
This is our only House call for a Republican incumbent in a Harris-won district. A Harvie win would be a Democratic pickup.
Bucks County’s 1st District is about as evenly divided as American politics gets: Kamala Harris carried it by 0.3 points in 2024, and its Cook Partisan Voting Index is D+1. Yet Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick won it that same year with 56.4% of the vote, running roughly 13 points ahead of the top of his ticket.
His challenger, Bob Harvie, is betting that a national environment roughly 9 points more Democratic than 2024 finally closes that gap. The only October poll says he might be right.
- Our call: Fitzpatrick by about 1, a Republican hold. Confidence: toss-up.
- Polls: The NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll (Oct. 16–22) has Harvie ahead 48–46. Every earlier poll had Fitzpatrick ahead.
- Brand: Fitzpatrick voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill and is the only Pennsylvania House Republican without Trump’s endorsement.
- Money: Fitzpatrick had raised $7.77 million to Harvie’s $2.90 million through Sept. 30.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Harvie (D) | Fitzpatrick (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/Inquirer/Siena | Oct. 16–22 | 400 LV | 48 | 46 |
| Public Opinion Strategies R-sponsored | Sept. 11–14 | 400 RV | 40 | 49 |
| GQR D · Older | Aug. 19–23 | — | 48 | 49 |
| Global Strategy Group D · Older | Aug. 5–9 | — | 43 | 47 |
The Siena poll found Trump’s approval in the district at 35/61, a heavy weight for any Republican. But it also found Fitzpatrick leading Harvie 46–39 on character, a sign that voters still separate him from his party.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean R | Oct. 23 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 27 |
| Inside Elections | Lean R | Oct. 15 |
| Split Ticket | Toss-Up | Oct. 25 |
The forecasters split between Lean Republican and Toss-Up. None favors Harvie, which tells you how much weight they give Fitzpatrick’s personal brand.
Why we’re calling it for Fitzpatrick
1. Fitzpatrick has the strongest crossover record in the House
Winning 56.4% in a seat Harris carried is not a fluke; it is a pattern built over several cycles. Even if a D+9 environment erases most of that 13-point cushion, a sliver would remain.
2. He has distanced himself from Trump in ways voters notice
Fitzpatrick voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill and is running without Trump’s endorsement. In a district where the president is 26 points underwater, that independence is his best asset, and the 46–39 character edge in the Siena poll suggests it is working.
3. The money gap is real
Through September 30, Fitzpatrick had raised $7.77 million and held $2.39 million in cash; Harvie had raised $2.90 million and held $0.72 million. The DCCC has increased its spending here, but Harvie is still the less-funded candidate.
The one high-quality October poll has Harvie ahead, and we are calling the race against it. Gov. Josh Shapiro campaigned with Harvie on back-to-back October weekends, and with Trump this unpopular in the district, ticket-splitting may simply have a ceiling this year. If the Siena result is accurate, Fitzpatrick loses. A 400-person poll has a wide margin of error, but it is the best evidence available, and it points the other way.
What to watch on election night
Pennsylvania’s polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Bucks County is the whole story here: watch whether Fitzpatrick is running well ahead of the statewide Republican vote in the county. Pennsylvania has historically been slow to count mail ballots, so a close race may not be clear until late at night or the next day.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PA-01 in 2026?
Our Final Call is Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick by about 1 point, a Republican hold, with toss-up confidence.
What do the PA-01 polls show?
The NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll (Oct. 16–22, 400 likely voters) has Bob Harvie ahead 48–46. Earlier polls, including partisan ones from August and September, had Fitzpatrick ahead.
Why is Fitzpatrick competitive in a district Harris won?
He has run well ahead of his party for years, voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill, and is the only Pennsylvania House Republican without Trump’s endorsement.
Fitzpatrick by 1. The environment says Harvie, the one good poll says Harvie, and we are still betting on the most durable crossover brand in the House. If he loses, it will be the clearest sign of how big this Democratic year really is.
Sources
- Philadelphia Inquirer: Harvie–Fitzpatrick congressional poll
- PoliticsPA: Can Bob Harvie end Fitzpatrick’s tenure?
- Wikipedia: 2026 U.S. House elections in Pennsylvania
- 270toWin: Cook Political Report House ratings (Oct. 23)
- 270toWin: Sabato’s Crystal Ball House ratings (Oct. 27)
- Wikipedia: Cook Partisan Voting Index
- Silver Bulletin: generic ballot average