Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
This is an open seat held by Democrats since 2019. A Crowley win keeps Wisconsin’s governorship Democratic.
Wisconsin is about as evenly divided as any state in the country: Trump won it by 0.9 points in 2024, and Democrat Tony Evers won re-election as governor by 3.4 points in 2022. This year’s open-seat race matches David Crowley (D), who won a razor-thin primary over Francesca Hong by less than half a point, against Rep. Tom Tiffany (R).
Wisconsin also has one of the most respected pollsters in the country, the Marquette Law School Poll, which released its final survey of the race on October 28.
- Our call: Crowley by about 5, a Democratic hold. Confidence: lean Democratic.
- Polls: Marquette’s final poll: Crowley 51–44 among likely voters, 47–44 among registered voters. Averages run Crowley +3.6 to +5.
- Environment: Trump’s approval is at a record-low 37% in Marquette’s Wisconsin poll.
- Money: Tiffany has outraised Crowley, and more than $50 million of the race’s $82.5 million-plus in ad reservations is pro-Tiffany.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Crowley (D) | Tiffany (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette Law School (final) | Oct. 14–22 | 668 LV | 51 | 44 |
| Marquette Law School (final) | Oct. 14–22 | 818 RV | 47 | 44 |
| YouGov | Released Oct. 16 | 1,715 RV | 46 | 42 |
| Z to A Research | Released Oct. 9 | 662 LV | 49 | 44 |
| Marquette Law School | Sept. 16–23 | LV | 49 | 46 |
Marquette’s likely-voter margin of error is ±4.7 points. Crowley’s lead grows from 3 points among all registered voters to 7 among likely voters, which means the more certain voters are the more Democratic ones.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Oct. 27 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean D | Oct. 22 |
| Inside Elections | Toss-Up | Oct. 15 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean D (71%) | Late Oct. |
| Kalshi / Polymarket | Crowley ~85% | Late Oct. |
The forecasters are split between Toss-Up and Lean Democratic. The markets are more confident in Crowley than any handicapper.
Why we’re calling it for Crowley
1. Marquette’s final poll is clear
Crowley leads 51–44 among likely voters, up from 49–46 in Marquette’s September poll. Other October polls from YouGov and Z to A Research also show him ahead by 4 to 5 points.
2. The environment is badly tilted against Republicans
Trump’s approval in Marquette’s poll is 37%, a record low. In a state decided by a point or less in most recent elections, that drag on the Republican ticket is likely decisive.
3. Neither candidate is popular, so the party label carries more weight
Both nominees are underwater with voters: Crowley by 7 points in net favorability, Tiffany by 10. When voters don’t love either candidate, they tend to fall back on partisanship and the national mood, which favor Crowley this year.
The race tightens to 3 points among all registered voters, so a higher-than-expected turnout among less-engaged voters could close the gap. Tiffany also has the money: he raised $26.3 million to Crowley’s $10.2 million from July to late September, and more than $50 million of the ad reservations in the race are pro-Tiffany. Wisconsin elections are routinely decided by a point or two, and Marquette’s likely-voter margin of error is nearly 5 points.
What to watch on election night
Wisconsin’s polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern (8 p.m. Central). Milwaukee counts its absentee ballots centrally and has historically reported them late in the night, which can move the statewide margin toward Democrats after midnight. Watch the Milwaukee suburbs (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties): if Tiffany’s margins there are smaller than Trump’s, Crowley is in good shape.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Wisconsin governor race?
Our Final Call is David Crowley (D) by about 5 points over Tom Tiffany (R), a Democratic hold, with lean-Democratic confidence.
What did the final Marquette poll show?
Marquette’s final poll, fielded October 14–22, showed Crowley ahead 51–44 among likely voters and 47–44 among registered voters.
Why might Wisconsin results change late on election night?
Milwaukee counts absentee ballots at a central location and has historically reported them late, which can shift the statewide totals toward Democrats after the in-person vote is counted.
Crowley by 5. The state’s best pollster shows him ahead, the most motivated voters are on his side, and the national environment is the worst for Republicans in years. Tiffany’s money advantage is real, but it hasn’t moved the polls.