Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
A Brooks win flips a seat Republicans took in 2024 and is one of the Democrats’ likeliest pickups in Pennsylvania.
The Lehigh Valley’s 7th District voted for Donald Trump 51–48 in 2024, and Rep. Ryan Mackenzie won it the same year with just 50.5%. Its Cook Partisan Voting Index is R+1, which in a year like this one makes it a natural Democratic target.
Bob Brooks has led both independent polls since September by 5 points. Every major forecaster now rates the race as leaning or likely Democratic.
- Our call: Brooks by about 4, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: Lean D.
- Polls: NYT/Inquirer/Siena has Brooks 49–44 (Oct. 16–22); Franklin & Marshall had him 45–40 in September.
- Ratings: Cook and Sabato rate it Lean D; Split Ticket, Likely D.
- Money: Nearly even. Mackenzie had raised $5.17 million to Brooks’s $4.99 million through Sept. 30.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Brooks (D) | Mackenzie (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/Inquirer/Siena | Oct. 16–22 | 401 LV | 49 | 44 |
| Franklin & Marshall | Sept. 9–20 | 357 RV | 45 | 40 |
| GBAO D · Older | June–July | — | 47 | 43 |
Three polls, three different firms, three Brooks leads of 4 or 5 points. The sample sizes are small, but the consistency matters.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | Oct. 23 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean D | Oct. 27 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | Oct. 15 |
| Split Ticket | Likely D | Oct. 25 |
Cook no longer lists PA-07 among its Toss-ups. Every forecaster we track has the race on the Democratic side.
Why we’re calling it for Brooks
1. Every poll points the same way
Siena, Franklin & Marshall and a Democratic internal from the summer all show Brooks ahead by 4 or 5. There is no public poll with Mackenzie ahead.
2. The district is barely Republican, and the year is not
An R+1 district that Trump won by 3 is exactly the kind of seat a national environment around D+9 should flip. Mackenzie’s 2024 margin left almost no cushion to absorb that swing.
3. Tariffs hit close to home
Trump rallied for Mackenzie at the Mack Trucks plant in the district, a site that has had tariff-related layoffs. That is a hard backdrop for a closing argument on the economy.
Mackenzie has a modest cash advantage ($2.18 million on hand to Brooks’s $1.29 million as of Sept. 30), and a Trump rally can lift Republican turnout in a district this evenly split. The polls are also small: a 401-voter sample carries a margin of error large enough to cover a Mackenzie win. A Green Party candidate, Tupone, was removed from the ballot and is running as a write-in, so left-leaning protest votes are less of a factor than they could have been, but they have not disappeared.
What to watch on election night
Pennsylvania’s polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Lehigh and Northampton counties make up the district, and Allentown’s turnout will be the key Democratic number. Pennsylvania has historically counted mail ballots slowly, so early returns can swing as different ballot types are reported.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PA-07 in 2026?
Our Final Call is Bob Brooks by about 4 points, flipping the seat from Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, with Lean Democratic confidence.
What do the PA-07 polls show?
The NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll (Oct. 16–22, 401 likely voters) has Brooks ahead 49–44, and Franklin & Marshall had him ahead 45–40 in September.
How close was PA-07 in 2024?
Very. Trump carried the district 51–48, and Mackenzie won his race with 50.5% of the vote.
Brooks by 4. Consistent polling, a barely-Republican district and a strongly Democratic year all point the same direction. This is one of the more confident flips on our House board.
Sources
- Siena: NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll of Pennsylvania congressional districts
- 270toWin: PA-07 polls
- Ballotpedia: PA-07 battleground spending
- Wikipedia: 2026 U.S. House elections in Pennsylvania
- 270toWin: Cook Political Report House ratings (Oct. 23)
- 270toWin: Sabato’s Crystal Ball House ratings (Oct. 27)
- Silver Bulletin: generic ballot average