Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Margin is after ranked-choice tabulation, if it is needed. A Jackson win would end Collins’s nearly 30-year Senate career and flip the seat.
Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican senator on the ballot this year in a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024, when Harris won Maine by 6.9 points. Her opponent, Troy Jackson, a logger from Allagash and former state Senate president, became the nominee on July 25 after the primary winner, Graham Platner, withdrew.
Every public poll in October has Jackson ahead or tied. That is also roughly what the polls said in 2020, when Collins won by about 9 points. Our call has to answer one question: is this year different?
- Our call: Jackson by about 2, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: toss-up, tilting Democratic.
- Polls: Jackson led or tied all six October polls we verified. The RealClearPolling average is Jackson +1.2; Silver Bulletin’s is +2.8.
- Environment: Trump’s approval in Maine is 37/62 in the latest Fox News poll, and Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm edge.
- The caveat: Collins outran her 2020 polls by roughly 10 points.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jackson (D) | Collins (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist | Oct. 22–25 | 1,449 LV | 49 | 47 |
| Trafalgar R-leaning | Oct. 21–23 | 1,077 LV | 47 | 47 |
| Fox News (Beacon/Shaw) | Oct. 16–20 | 1,514 LV | 49 | 49 |
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | Oct. 13–14 | 1,200 LV | 49 | 47 |
| Suffolk | Oct. 8–11 | 500 LV | 49 | 47 |
| Washington Post-Schar | Sept. 30–Oct. 5 | 800 LV | 50 | 46 |
Fox News found Jackson ahead 50–48 among registered voters, leading by 40 points among people who had already voted, while Collins led Election Day voters by 12. The race is close enough that turnout on Tuesday itself will decide it.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Late Oct. |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 14 |
| Inside Elections | Toss-Up | Sept. 22 |
| Split Ticket | Lean D | Sept. 25 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Jackson 56% | Late Oct. |
| Kalshi | Jackson ~61% | Late Oct. |
Silver Bulletin’s model gave Jackson a 70.6% chance on October 8. Every major forecaster agrees this is a coin flip with a thumb on the Democratic side of the scale.
Why we’re calling it for Jackson
1. The polls are small but consistent
Six October polls, from pollsters across the spectrum, show Jackson ahead by 2 to 4 points or tied. None shows Collins ahead. The two Republican-leaning firms in that set have Jackson up 2 and tied.
2. The national environment is the worst of Collins’s career
Democrats lead the national generic ballot by roughly 8 to 9 points, and Trump’s Maine approval sits at 37%. Collins has survived bad Republican years before, but never one this deep in a state her party’s presidential nominee lost.
3. Jackson has the money to compete
Jackson raised $20.4 million in the third quarter to Collins’s $5.2 million, though he entered October with less cash on hand ($4 million, and about $1 million in debt, against her $5.4 million). Collins also faces a late ProPublica report tying her to an illegal $150,000 straw donation to a pro-Collins PAC in 2020; she denies any knowledge of it.
Collins has done this before. In 2020, nearly every public poll showed her trailing Sara Gideon, and she won by about 9 points. Her appropriations clout, her breaks with Trump on Canada tariffs and Joe Manchin’s late campaigning for her are aimed squarely at the ticket-splitters who saved her then. If she runs even half as far ahead of her polls as she did in 2020, she wins.
What to watch on election night
Maine’s polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Watch the rural 2nd Congressional District, which includes Jackson’s hometown of Allagash: Collins has historically run far ahead of other Republicans there. If Jackson holds her to roughly Trump’s margin in the 2nd, she is in serious trouble.
Maine uses ranked-choice voting in Senate general elections. If no one clears 50% of first choices, the tabulation runs centrally in Augusta and a final result could take days.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Maine Senate race?
Our Final Call is Troy Jackson by about 2 points, a Democratic pickup, with toss-up confidence. Collins has beaten her polls before, so an upset would not surprise us.
What do the latest Maine Senate polls show?
Jackson led or tied every October poll we verified, including Marist (49–47, Oct. 22–25) and Fox News (49–49, Oct. 16–20). The RealClearPolling average is Jackson +1.2.
When will we know who won in Maine?
Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. If no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, ranked-choice tabulation can delay the final result by several days.
Jackson by 2. Every measurable input points his way: the polls, the environment, the fundraising. The one thing that doesn’t is Susan Collins’s history, and that is why this is the shakiest Democratic call in our series.
Sources
- RealClearPolling: Maine Senate, Collins vs. Jackson
- Fox News poll: Nail-biter in Maine Senate race
- Newsweek: Troy Jackson massively outraising Susan Collins
- Bangor Daily News: Collins and the ProPublica investigation
- Roll Call: Inside Elections rating changes (Sept. 22)
- Political Wire: Five Senate races are now Toss-Ups (Sabato)
- Wikipedia: 2026 United States Senate election in Maine
- DeFi Rate: Senate race market odds