Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking re-election. A Sand win would flip the open seat and break the Republican hold on Iowa’s governorship.
Iowa voted for Trump by 13.2 points in 2024, and Republicans have held the governor’s office since the 2010 election. With Gov. Kim Reynolds not running, the open seat pits State Auditor Rob Sand (D) against Zach Lahn (R). The Libertarian candidate was disqualified, so it is a two-way race.
Iowa’s Senate race is a coin flip. Its governor’s race, by every public measure, is not.
- Our call: Sand by about 6, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: lean Democratic.
- Polls: Sand led all three October polls we verified, by 4 to 7 points, including one from a Republican-leaning firm.
- Money: Sand raised a record $37.8 million. The Republican Governors Association has put $15.5 million behind Lahn.
- Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket give Sand about 87–88%.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Sand (D) | Lahn (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | Released Oct. 27 | — | 50 | 46 |
| co/efficient R-leaning | Released Oct. 19 | — | 49 | 45 |
| Marist | Released Oct. 15 | — | 52 | 45 |
Averages put Sand ahead by 6 to 8.5 points. Notably, the Republican-leaning co/efficient poll has Sand up 4, the same pollster that showed Republican Ashley Hinson ahead in the Senate race, which suggests real ticket-splitting rather than a skewed sample.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | Oct. 27 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean D | Late Oct. |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | Latest found |
| Kalshi / Polymarket | Sand ~87–88% | Late Oct. |
All three major handicappers lean the race toward Sand, a notable consensus in a state Trump won by double digits.
Why we’re calling it for Sand
1. Every poll, including a Republican-leaning one, has Sand ahead
Marist (+7), Echelon Insights (+4) and co/efficient (+4) all show Sand leading, and he reaches 50% or more in two of them. A consistent lead across pollsters of different leanings is the strongest signal a race can give.
2. A historic money advantage
Sand raised a record $37.8 million for an Iowa governor’s race. The RGA’s $15.5 million for Lahn is substantial, but Sand has been able to define himself on television for months.
3. Trump is underwater in Iowa
Trump’s Iowa approval is 44/53 in Marist’s poll and 42/57 in Fox News’s. In an open-seat race, that weighs on the Republican nominee.
Iowa is a 13-point Trump state, and its polls underestimated Republicans in 2020. Trump rallied in Iowa on October 22 and plans another rally on November 1, and the Republican-leaning polls show Republicans doing better in the Senate race than nonpartisan polls do. If late-deciding Republicans consolidate behind the whole ticket, a 6-point lead can shrink quickly. Still, Sand would need to lose ground in every poll at once for Lahn to win.
What to watch on election night
Iowa’s polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern (8 p.m. Central), and the state generally counts quickly. Watch the gap between Sand and Democrat Josh Turek in the Senate race: if Sand is running several points ahead of Turek in rural eastern Iowa, the ticket-splitting the polls predict is real and Sand should win comfortably.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Iowa governor race?
Our Final Call is Rob Sand (D) by about 6 points over Zach Lahn (R), a Democratic pickup, with lean-Democratic confidence.
Is Kim Reynolds running for re-election?
No. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking another term, so the seat is open.
What do the latest Iowa governor polls show?
Sand led all three October polls we verified: Marist (52–45), Echelon Insights (50–46) and co/efficient (49–45).
Sand by 6. He leads every poll, has a record war chest and is running in a year when Trump is underwater even in Iowa. Iowa’s red lean and its history of polling misses keep this at Lean rather than Likely.