Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
This is our one Final Call made against every public poll in the race. Here is why.
Southwest Washington’s 3rd District voted for Trump 50.3–47.0 in 2024, and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won it 51.7–47.9. Its Cook PVI is R+2. Her opponent this year is John Braun, the Republican leader of the state Senate and a stronger recruit than the Republicans she beat twice.
All three public polls show Braun ahead by 1 or 2 points. The forecasters, though, lean toward Gluesenkamp Perez, and so do we.
- Our call: Gluesenkamp Perez by about 1, a Democratic hold. Confidence: toss-up.
- Polls: DHM Research for OPB (Sept. 17–27) has Braun 46–44, or 48–47 with leaners. No public poll shows her ahead.
- Primary signal: Democratic candidates combined for 55.9% in the August top-two primary.
- Money: About $11 million in outside spending has targeted Gluesenkamp Perez; total spending exceeds $20 million.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gluesenkamp Perez (D) | Braun (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research / OPB | Sept. 17–27 | 543 LV | 44 | 46 |
| Northwest Progressive Institute D-aligned · Older | Summer | — | 44 | 45 |
| Emerson Older | July | — | 44 | 45 |
With undecided voters who lean one way included, the OPB poll narrows to Braun 48–47. Every poll is within its margin of error, and none was taken in October.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | Oct. 23 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean D | Oct. 27 |
| Inside Elections | Toss-Up | Oct. 15 |
| Split Ticket | Likely D | Oct. 25 |
Cook moved the race to Lean D on October 9. No major forecaster favors Braun.
Why we’re calling it for Gluesenkamp Perez
1. The primary is a better measure than old polls
Washington’s top-two primary is effectively a giant poll of actual voters. Democrats combined for 55.9% in August, a strong showing in a Trump-won district.
2. The polls are old, small and close
The most recent survey ended September 27. Braun’s lead is 1 to 2 points in each, well within the margin of error, and the national environment has not moved toward Republicans since.
3. She has beaten the odds here before
Gluesenkamp Perez has won this Trump district twice, both times running ahead of her party. The forecasters’ Lean D and Likely D ratings reflect that record.
Everything we can directly measure in this race says Braun. He is a stronger candidate than her previous opponents, roughly $11 million in outside money has been aimed at her, including $4.8 million from the Congressional Leadership Fund and $3.9 million from No Going Back, and she entered October with just $640,000 in cash to Braun’s $1.1 million. Brent Hennrich, the progressive who won 15.3% in the primary, has said he will not back her. If even a modest share of his voters skip the race, Braun wins.
What to watch on election night
Washington’s polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern (8 p.m. Pacific). Washington votes entirely by mail and counts ballots for days after the election, so the first-night results are only a partial picture. Clark County, the district’s population center around Vancouver, decides the race.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win WA-03 in 2026?
Our Final Call is Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by about 1 point over John Braun, a Democratic hold, with toss-up confidence.
What do the WA-03 polls show?
Every public poll shows Braun narrowly ahead. The latest, DHM Research for OPB (Sept. 17–27, 543 likely voters), has him ahead 46–44.
When will WA-03 be called?
Possibly not for days. Washington votes by mail, and ballots continue to be counted well after Election Day.
Gluesenkamp Perez by 1, against every poll. The polls are old and within the margin; the primary, the national swing and her own record point the other way. If we miss a House race, this may be the one.