Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Margin is for the final ranked-choice round, roughly 51–49. Alaska’s count can take up to about 15 days, so this race may not be settled on election night.
Trump carried Alaska by 13.1 points in 2024, and Sen. Dan Sullivan won his last race by 12.7. On paper this is not a battleground. In practice, former Rep. Mary Peltola took 49.5% in the August top-four primary to Sullivan’s 41.4%, and she has led nearly every public poll since.
Alaska elects its senators by ranked-choice voting, and the four general-election candidates include a second Republican with an almost identical name: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who drew 2.5% in the primary. The fourth candidate, Gerald Heikes, is also a Republican.
- Our call: Peltola by about 2 in the final round, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: toss-up, tilting Democratic.
- Polls: Peltola led five of the six fall polls we verified. Averages range from Peltola +1.2 (RealClearPolling) to +3.5 (Silver Bulletin).
- The wild card: the Justice Department sued on October 22 to block certification of a Peltola win while Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. remains on the ballot.
- Timing: ranked-choice tabulation waits for late ballots; the count can take up to about 15 days.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Peltola (D) | Sullivan (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (final round) D-leaning | Oct. 8–16 | 694 LV | 51 | 49 |
| PPP D-leaning | Oct. 14–15 | 578 RV | 48 | 47 |
| Rasmussen (final round) R-leaning | Oct. 12–15 | 775 LV | 47 | 48 |
| InsiderAdvantage (final round) R-leaning | Oct. 9–10 | 1,200 LV | 50.1 | 48 |
| Alaska Survey Research (final round) | Oct. 1–3 | 1,512 LV | 51 | 49 |
| NYT/Siena | Sept. 22–Oct. 1 | 504 LV | 50 | 43 |
Where pollsters simulated the ranked-choice count, we list the final round. In first-choice voting, Data for Progress had Peltola ahead 49–46 and InsiderAdvantage had her ahead 48.2–42.6. Rasmussen is the only October poll we found with Sullivan ahead.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Late Oct. |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean D | Oct. 6 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | Sept. 17 |
| Split Ticket | Lean D | Sept. 25 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Peltola 61% | Late Oct. |
| Kalshi / Polymarket | Peltola ~70% | Late Oct. |
Silver Bulletin gave Peltola a 64.6% chance on October 8. Inside Elections’ Tilt R rating is the oldest on this list; we could not confirm a newer one.
Why we’re calling it for Peltola
1. She has led almost every poll, from both sides
Five of the six fall polls we verified have Peltola ahead, including the two Republican-leaning firms that simulated the ranked-choice count (InsiderAdvantage had her ahead in the final round). The gold-standard NYT/Siena poll had her up 7. The leads are small, but they are consistent.
2. The primary already showed her ceiling is high
Peltola’s 49.5% in the August top-four primary is close to a majority on its own. Sullivan, an incumbent, managed 41.4%. Ranked-choice voting means Peltola does not need 50% of first choices, only to stay ahead once the other candidates’ ballots are redistributed.
3. The environment and the money favor her
Democrats lead the national generic ballot by roughly 8 to 9 points. Peltola also outraised Sullivan through July 29, $18.5 million to $11.7 million, though Sullivan had more cash in the bank ($7.3 million to $4.6 million). We could not find third-quarter figures.
Alaska polls have historically leaned toward Democrats, and these leads are within any reasonable margin of error. Early voting has been near record, with more than 58,000 ballots cast by October 28 and Republicans outnumbering Democrats among early voters, 27% to 18.4%. A late super PAC buy of about $600,000 is built around a New York Times report on Peltola’s treatment of staff. If Sullivan consolidates the Republican ballots, including most of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.’s and Gerald Heikes’s second choices, he can win the final round.
What to watch on election night
Alaska’s main polling zone closes at midnight Eastern, the last state in our series. Election-night numbers will be first-choice votes only. If no one clears 50%, the ranked-choice tabulation runs after late absentee ballots arrive, and the count can take up to about 15 days.
Then there is the lawsuit. On October 22 the Justice Department sued to block certification of a possible Peltola win while Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. stays on the ballot. Trump said, “I’m the one that said do it.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski criticized the suit, and at least one law professor expects it to be dismissed. Even if Peltola leads the count, certification could become its own story.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Alaska Senate race?
Our Final Call is Mary Peltola by about 2 points in the final ranked-choice round, a Democratic pickup, with toss-up confidence.
Why are there two Dan Sullivans on the Alaska ballot?
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a separate Republican candidate, advanced from the August top-four primary with 2.5% of the vote. Sen. Dan Sullivan is the incumbent.
When will we know who won in Alaska?
Probably not on election night. Polls close at midnight Eastern, ranked-choice tabulation waits for late ballots, and the count can take up to about 15 days. A Justice Department lawsuit over certification could add further delay.
Peltola by 2. She has the polls, the primary math and the national environment on her side in a state that usually isn’t close. Expect a long count, and possibly a court fight, before anyone gets to call it officially.
Sources
- RealClearPolling: Alaska Senate, Peltola vs. Sullivan
- Newsweek: Alaska early voting and the Sullivan race
- AP via WCAX: Trump administration sues to block possible Democratic win in Alaska
- Alaska’s News Source: DOJ lawsuit over the Alaska Senate race
- Wikipedia: 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska
- Decision Desk HQ: Alaska Senate polling average
- Newsweek: Nate Silver’s forecast changes (Oct. 8)
- DeFi Rate: Peltola holds on Kalshi as staff allegations surface