Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
An open seat: Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring. A one-point call is a coin flip with a slight lean, and we would not be surprised by a Turek win.
Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring, and the race to replace her has become one of the tightest in the country. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D) in a state Trump carried by 13.2 points in 2024. A Libertarian, Thomas Laehn, a pipeline opponent, is also on the ballot and could draw votes from Hinson.
The polling here splits along an unusual line: who paid for it. That split is the heart of our call.
- Our call: Hinson by about 1, a Republican hold. Confidence: pure toss-up.
- Polls: nonpartisan polls (Marist, YouGov, Fox News) lean Turek; Republican-leaning polls lean Hinson. The RealClearPolling average is Hinson +0.6; Silver Bulletin’s is Turek +1.2.
- Markets: Kalshi gives Hinson about 54%.
- Headwind for Hinson: Trump’s Iowa approval is underwater (44/53 in Marist), and Democrat Rob Sand leads the governor’s race.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Turek (D) | Hinson (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | Oct. 21–22 | 1,200 LV | 45 | 47 |
| co/efficient R-leaning | Oct. 15–19 | 863 LV | 46 | 49 |
| National Public Affairs R-leaning | ~Oct. 19 | LV | 44 | 47 |
| Trafalgar R-leaning | Oct. 13–15 | 1,094 LV | 44 | 46 |
| Marist | Oct. 8–11 | 1,100 LV | 48 | 45 |
| YouGov | Oct. 6–12 | 2,245 LV | 47 | 46 |
| Fox News (Beacon/Shaw) | Sept. 24–28 | LV | 49 | 47 |
National Public Affairs had Libertarian Thomas Laehn at 4%. Every Republican-leaning poll has Hinson ahead by 2 to 3 points; every nonpartisan poll has Turek ahead by 1 to 3. The Republican-leaning polls are also the most recent.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Late Oct. |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 14 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | Sept. 17 |
| Split Ticket | Toss-Up | Sept. 25 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Toss-Up (Hinson +1) | Late Oct. |
| Kalshi | Hinson ~54% | Late Oct. |
Silver Bulletin rated the race Lean D on September 23, the most Democratic-leaning forecast we found.
Why we’re calling it for Hinson
1. Iowa’s history with polling misses
Iowa polls underestimated Republicans in 2020, when Ernst won by 6.5 points. A state that voted for Trump by 13 has a lot of Republican voters who are hard to reach. A 1–2 point Turek lead in nonpartisan polls is smaller than a typical miss in this direction.
2. The most recent polls lean Hinson
The four latest surveys, all from Republican-leaning firms, have Hinson ahead by 2 to 3 points. We discount partisan pollsters, but we don’t ignore them, especially when they agree with one another and the markets lean the same way.
3. The Republican floor is high
Trump won Iowa by 13.2 points just two years ago. Even with his approval underwater in the state (44/53 in Marist, 42/57 in Fox News), Turek needs a large share of Trump voters to split their tickets. Trump rallied for Hinson on October 22 and plans a second Iowa rally on November 1, aimed at exactly those voters.
Almost everything else points toward Turek. Hinson’s favorability is underwater (42/50 in Fox News). Democrat Rob Sand leads the governor’s race by 5 to 9 points, and ticket-splitting at that scale is rare. Senate Majority PAC has a $13.4 million reservation plus a $17 million fall buy against Hinson, roughly matching One Nation’s planned $11 million for her. And if Laehn’s pipeline voters come mostly from the right, Hinson loses a point she can’t spare.
What to watch on election night
Iowa’s polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern (8 p.m. Central). Compare Turek’s numbers with Rob Sand’s as results come in: if Turek runs close to Sand, he probably wins. Laehn’s final share is the other number to watch. Anything near 4% likely costs Hinson more than Turek.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Iowa Senate race?
Our Final Call is Ashley Hinson by about 1 point, a Republican hold, with pure toss-up confidence. A Turek win would not surprise us.
What do the latest Iowa Senate polls show?
Nonpartisan polls lean Turek (Marist 48–45, YouGov 47–46); Republican-leaning polls lean Hinson (InsiderAdvantage 47–45, co/efficient 49–46). The RealClearPolling average is Hinson +0.6.
Is Joni Ernst running for re-election?
No. Ernst is retiring, making this an open seat.
Hinson by 1. This is the one Senate race where we’re calling against the national tide, because Iowa’s Republican lean and its polling history outweigh a nonpartisan polling lead that is smaller than a normal miss. Treat it as a coin flip.
Sources
- RealClearPolling: Iowa Senate, Hinson vs. Turek
- Fox News poll: Turek, Hinson close in Iowa Senate race
- Newsweek: Trump’s Iowa rally and the Hinson–Turek polls
- Political Wire: Iowa voters lean toward a split ticket
- Bleeding Heartland: outside spending and the Libertarian candidate
- Carroll Times Herald: $17M Democratic fall ad buy against Hinson
- Political Wire: Five Senate races are now Toss-Ups (Sabato)
- DeFi Rate: Senate race market odds