Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Marshall is the incumbent. A Hamilton win would be the first Democratic Senate victory in Kansas since 1932.
No Democrat has won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932, and Trump carried the state by 16.1 points in 2024. Yet Sen. Roger Marshall enters the final week in a statistical tie with Adam Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor who first explored running as an independent. Libertarian David Graham is also on the ballot and drew 4% in an Emerson poll.
Republicans have noticed. Trump rallied for Marshall on October 19, JD Vance is due in Topeka, and Republicans moved money out of North Carolina to defend Kansas.
- Our call: Marshall by about 3, a Republican hold. Confidence: tilt Republican.
- Polls: six fall polls range from Hamilton +3 to Marshall +1. The RealClearPolling average is Marshall +0.3; Silver Bulletin’s is Hamilton +1.1.
- Gap: we found no public poll fielded after October 14.
- Money: about $71 million in ad commitments, a Kansas record, with Democrats slightly ahead.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hamilton (D) | Marshall (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | Oct. 13–14 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 48 |
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | Oct. 9–10 | 1,200 LV | 48 | 47 |
| Trafalgar R-leaning | Sept. 29–Oct. 1 | 1,095 LV | 44 | 44 |
| YouGov | Sept. 24–Oct. 4 | 2,252 LV | 48 | 45 |
| NYT/Siena | Sept. 22–Oct. 1 | 605 LV | 46 | 47 |
| Emerson | Sept. 15–16 | 750 LV | 45 | 43 |
Emerson also found Libertarian David Graham at 4% and 8% undecided. With no public poll since mid-October, the final week is a blind spot.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Oct. 6 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 14 |
| Split Ticket | Lean R | Sept. 25 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | Sept. 17 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Marshall 65% | Late Oct. |
| Kalshi | Marshall ~65% | Oct. 15 |
Inside Elections’ Likely R rating is the oldest on this list, and we could not confirm a newer one. On Polymarket, Hamilton traded at 37.5 cents on October 19.
Why we’re calling it for Marshall
1. The undecideds live in a Republican state
About 44% of Kansas voters are registered Republicans; under 26% are Democrats. When a race is tied in the mid-40s, the remaining voters in a state like this lean heavily Republican, and late deciders tend to come home.
2. Kansas polls have overrated Democrats before
Kansas Senate polling flattered Democratic-aligned candidates in both 2014 and 2020. Marshall himself won by 11.4 points in 2020. A polling tie here has historically meant a Republican win.
3. Republicans are spending to close the gap
Trump’s rally, Vance’s visit and money moved in from North Carolina show Republicans treating Kansas as a must-hold. The Senate Leadership Fund is reported to be spending $14 million here, and Republican ads focus on Hamilton’s sermons and his handling of a church-camp abuse case.
Hamilton has real momentum and money. He raised a reported $10.6 million in the third quarter, and Democrats have more than $38 million in ad commitments to Republicans’ $32 million-plus. Democratic ads hammer Marshall over more than 700 lawsuits he filed against his medical patients. Advance voting is running at more than double the last midterm’s pace, and Democrats lead the national generic ballot by roughly 8 to 9 points. If those new voters are disproportionately Democratic, the polls may be understating Hamilton rather than overstating him.
What to watch on election night
Most of Kansas closes at 8 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. Central); a few far-western counties on Mountain time close an hour later. Watch the Kansas City suburbs in Johnson County, the state’s largest: Hamilton needs a big margin there to offset rural western Kansas. Graham’s final share also matters in a race this close.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Kansas Senate race?
Our Final Call is Roger Marshall by about 3 points, a Republican hold, with tilt-Republican confidence.
What do the latest Kansas Senate polls show?
A tie. Fall polls range from Hamilton +3 (YouGov) to Marshall +1 (NYT/Siena, InsiderAdvantage). We found no public poll fielded after October 14.
When did Kansas last elect a Democratic senator?
1932. A Hamilton win would end a streak of more than nine decades.
Marshall by 3. Hamilton has turned a safe seat into a real race, and that alone is remarkable. But in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats nearly two to one and polls have missed in this direction before, a tie in the polls is not a tie on Election Day.
Sources
- RealClearPolling: Kansas Senate, Marshall vs. Hamilton
- Emerson College Polling: Kansas 2026
- AP via ClickOrlando: The GOP is on a rescue mission in Kansas
- HPPR: Trump rallies in Kansas for Marshall
- Action Network: Kansas Senate polls vs. betting odds
- dnyuz: Three Senate races shift toward Democrats in Cook ratings
- Wikipedia: 2024 presidential election in Kansas