Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. A Cooper win flips the seat and would be the first Democratic Senate victory in North Carolina since 2008.
North Carolina has been the graveyard of Democratic Senate hopes for more than a decade: Trump carried it by 3.2 points in 2024, and Thom Tillis held this seat by 1.8 points in 2020. This year, Democrats recruited the strongest candidate they could have: Roy Cooper, the former two-term governor. Republicans nominated Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee.
The polls have not been close since early autumn, and in October the race effectively stopped being contested on television.
- Our call: Cooper by about 11, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: Likely Democratic, bordering on safe.
- Polls: Cooper led all six October polls we verified, by 7 to 14 points. 270toWin’s average is Cooper 53.2–41.6.
- Air war: Whatley’s last broadcast ad aired October 7. As of October 15, his campaign had $0 in TV reservations.
- Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket both price Cooper at about 96%.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Cooper (D) | Whatley (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University | Oct. 28 release | 620 LV | 54 | 40 |
| Quantus Insights R-leaning | Oct. 26 release | 722 LV | 52 | 43 |
| Harper Polling/Carolina Journal Conservative sponsor | Oct. 22 release | 600 LV | 49 | 39 |
| Elon University | Oct. 20 release | — | 52 | 39 |
| SurveyUSA/WRAL-WSOC | Oct. 7–11 | 643 LV | 54 | 40 |
| East Carolina University | Oct. 8 release | 810 LV | 50 | 43 |
Even the polls from Republican-leaning firms and a conservative outlet show Cooper ahead by 9 or 10 points. RealClearPolling lists the Quantus poll as 51–43.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely D | Oct. 6 |
| Inside Elections | Lean D | Oct. 1 |
| Silver Bulletin | Cooper 95.3% | Early Oct. |
| Kalshi | Cooper ~96% | Late Oct. |
| Polymarket | Cooper 96¢ | Late Oct. |
270toWin shows Cook moving the race to Likely D on October 6, while a Newsweek report around October 12 still described it as Lean D. We could not verify Sabato’s current rating.
Why we’re calling it for Cooper
1. The polling lead is large and unanimous
Six October polls, six Cooper leads, the smallest of them 7 points. Cooper sits at or above 50% in five of them, which matters more than the margin: a candidate above 50% does not need undecided voters to break his way.
2. Republicans have pulled out
Whatley’s campaign aired its last broadcast ad on October 7. The Senate Leadership Fund paused its spending here, and the pro-Whatley group Old North Action moved $6.5 million elsewhere. Republicans have also shifted money from North Carolina to defend Kansas. As of October 15, Cooper had $7.4 million in TV reservations and allied groups another $11.2 million, against $4.7 million from pro-Whatley groups.
3. Cooper has won statewide before, in tougher years
Cooper won the governorship twice, including in 2020 while Trump carried the state. He has raised more than $35 million to Whatley’s $16.1 million, and he enters Election Day with a statewide brand his opponent can’t match.
North Carolina polls have overstated Democrats before: Democrats led many 2020 polls in the Senate race and lost. A uniform polling miss of 4 or 5 points would still leave Cooper ahead. It would take a historically large miss, combined with a late Republican surge that no data so far shows, for Whatley to win. Our main uncertainty is the size of the margin, not the winner.
What to watch on election night
North Carolina’s polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, among the earliest in the country. Election officials can extend hours at individual precincts that open late, which can delay the first returns. In-person early voting runs October 15 through October 31, and those ballots typically make up a large share of the first results.
If Cooper is winning by double digits in the early count, he is on track. If the race is within 5 as Election Day votes come in, the national polling picture may be off in Republicans’ favor, a warning sign for closer races later in the night.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the North Carolina Senate race?
Our Final Call is Roy Cooper by about 11 points, flipping the seat from Republican to Democratic, with Likely Democratic confidence.
Why is the North Carolina Senate seat open?
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is not running for re-election. Michael Whatley, the former RNC chair, is the Republican nominee.
When do North Carolina polls close?
At 7:30 p.m. Eastern, though officials may extend hours at individual precincts.
Cooper by 11. A popular former governor, a double-digit polling lead and an opponent whose party has stopped spending on him. This is the surest Democratic pickup of the night, and the earliest signal of how big the night could get.