Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
This is an open Democratic seat. An El-Sayed win keeps it in Democratic hands; a Rogers win would be a Republican pickup and a serious blow to Democratic hopes of a majority.
Michigan is the one Democratic-held Senate seat Republicans have spent the most to take. Abdul El-Sayed won a razor-thin August 4 primary over Rep. Haley Stevens, 48.5% to 47.5%. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost Michigan’s other Senate race in 2024, ran unopposed. Trump carried Michigan by 1.4 points in 2024, and Gary Peters held this seat by 1.7 in 2020.
Independent TJ Stephens and several minor-party candidates are also on the ballot; one CBS/Mitchell survey found third-party support near 7%, which keeps both major candidates’ shares below 50% in most polls.
- Our call: El-Sayed by about 3, a Democratic hold. Confidence: Lean Democratic.
- Polls: El-Sayed led every nonpartisan October poll we verified, by 1 to 7 points. 270toWin’s average is El-Sayed 48.3–45.3.
- Money: El-Sayed raised $30.7 million in the third quarter, but outside groups backing Rogers have outspent pro-El-Sayed groups roughly $95 million to $42 million.
- Top of the ticket: Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads the governor’s race by about 7, and Republicans have largely left the air there.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | El-Sayed (D) | Rogers (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/Mitchell | Posted Oct. 28 | — | 51 | 44 |
| Detroit News/Glengariff | Posted Oct. 27 | — | 51 | 45 |
| MSU/YouGov | Oct. 26 release | 836 LV | 48 | 46 |
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | ~Oct. 23 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 46 |
| Marist | Oct. 15–18 | LV | 50 | 48 |
| Tyson Group Pro-Rogers sponsor | Oct. 6–8 | 600 LV | 44 | 46 |
Marist found El-Sayed ahead by 7 among all registered voters, narrower among likely voters. A Z to A Research poll sponsored by the Democratic group Rust Belt Rising showed El-Sayed +7; we list it here but don’t weight it. We excluded all polls from “Wedgewood,” which was removed from coverage after being exposed as a fake operation.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Late Oct. |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean D | Sept. 22 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | Oct. 1 |
| Split Ticket | Lean D | Sept. 20 |
| Kalshi | El-Sayed 69% | Oct. 28 |
| Polymarket | El-Sayed 71% | Oct. 17 |
Sabato moved the race to Lean D on September 22; a later Newsweek report listed it as a Toss-Up, and we could not resolve the discrepancy. Cook still calls it a Toss-Up. The markets put El-Sayed at roughly 2-to-1.
Why we’re calling it for El-Sayed
1. He has led almost every credible poll
Since September, El-Sayed has been ahead in nearly every nonpartisan survey. The two late polls posted on October 27 and 28, from Glengariff and CBS/Mitchell, both have him at 51%, with leads of 6 and 7 points. The only recent poll with Rogers ahead was paid for by a group affiliated with his campaign, and the Republican-leaning InsiderAdvantage has El-Sayed up 1.
2. The environment and the top of the ticket help
Democrats lead the national generic ballot by about 8 to 9 points. In the same state, Jocelyn Benson leads the governor’s race by about 7 in recent polls, and Republicans have essentially stopped running TV ads in that race. A comfortable Democratic win at the top of the ticket makes a Rogers upset harder.
3. Late polls have widened slightly, not narrowed
The closing weeks brought some of the harshest attacks of the cycle. Trump called El-Sayed “Mohammed” and a “radical jihadist,” and Rogers endorsed Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy’s description of El-Sayed as a “terrorist.” So far, the polls taken after those remarks have moved slightly toward El-Sayed rather than away from him.
Two things. First, the money: outside groups backing Rogers have spent roughly $95 million to about $42 million on El-Sayed’s side, and Rogers entered the final stretch with more cash on hand ($6.5 million to $3.8 million). Second, prejudice that polls may not fully capture: in MSU’s survey, 37% of respondents said they were less likely to support a Muslim candidate. If some of those voters are quietly telling pollsters they are undecided, El-Sayed’s 3-point edge could evaporate. A Rogers win would not shock us.
What to watch on election night
Most of Michigan’s polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern; the western Upper Peninsula, on Central time, closes an hour later. Watch Wayne County turnout, where Democrats need a big margin, and the large suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb, which decide most close Michigan statewide races.
Also compare El-Sayed’s numbers with Benson’s in the same counties. If he runs well behind her, Rogers is in the game.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Michigan Senate race?
Our Final Call is Abdul El-Sayed by about 3 points, a Democratic hold, with Lean Democratic confidence.
What do the latest Michigan Senate polls show?
El-Sayed leads the 270toWin average 48.3–45.3. Late polls from Detroit News/Glengariff (51–45) and CBS/Mitchell (51–44) show him ahead by 6 and 7 points.
How much has been spent on the Michigan Senate race?
More than $270 million, making it one of the most expensive Senate races in the country. Outside groups backing Rogers account for about $95 million of that.
El-Sayed by 3. He has the polls, the national environment and a strong top of the ticket. Rogers has the outside money and a closing campaign built on attacks on El-Sayed’s religion. We think the polls are right, but this is the Democratic-held seat most likely to surprise us.
Sources
- RealClearPolling: Latest Senate polls
- 270toWin: Michigan Senate polls
- Marist Poll: Midterm elections in Michigan (October 2026)
- MSU IPPSR: State of the State survey
- Bridge Michigan: El-Sayed sets Michigan fundraising record
- Kalshi News: Michigan Senate odds
- Newsweek: Wedgewood polls and the Michigan Senate race
- FOX 2 Detroit: El-Sayed projected to defeat Haley Stevens
- Wikipedia: 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan