Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
This is the closest call in our series and the one where we part ways with the prediction markets. A Jackson win keeps the governor’s office Republican after Brian Kemp’s two terms.
Rick Jackson, a billionaire backed by Gov. Brian Kemp, won the Republican nomination by beating Lt. Gov. Burt Jones 52.6–47.4 in the June 16 runoff. His opponent is former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Trump carried Georgia by 2.2 points in 2024, and Kemp won re-election by 7.5 in 2022.
This race is the cleanest test in the country of whether Georgia voters will split their tickets again. In the same University of Georgia poll for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff led his race 48–40 while Jackson led Bottoms 46–45. That gap is the whole story.
- Our call: Jackson by about 1, a Republican hold. Confidence: pure toss-up.
- Polls: Both the 270toWin and RealClearPolling averages show Jackson up about 1.2 points.
- Money: Pro-Jackson groups have spent or reserved about $76 million on general-election ads, against about $8 million for Bottoms. Jackson has put in more than $108 million of his own money.
- The counterweight: Democrats are far more enthusiastic, early voting is at record levels, and Polymarket and Kalshi both favor Bottoms at roughly 62–63%.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jackson (R) | Bottoms (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | Released Oct. 27 | 508 LV | 48 | 49 |
| Quantus Insights R-leaning | Released Oct. 19 | 755 LV | 49 | 48 |
| UGA SPIA / AJC | Oct. 7–15 | 1,000 LV | 46 | 45 |
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | Released Oct. 14 | 800 LV | 49 | 47 |
Averages: 270toWin has Jackson 48.8–47.6; RealClearPolling has Jackson 47.8–46.6. The newest poll, from Echelon Insights, is the only one in this set with Bottoms ahead, by a single point. We gave little weight to an ActiVote survey of 400 likely voters with irregular “other” figures.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Oct. 27 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 22 |
| Inside Elections | Toss-Up | Sept. 17 |
| Polymarket | Bottoms ~63% | Late Oct. |
| Kalshi | Democrat ~62% | Late Oct. |
Every major handicapper calls this a pure toss-up. The prediction markets lean toward Bottoms, which makes this one of the few races where our call runs against the betting favorite.
Why we’re calling it for Jackson
1. The polls have shown a small, steady Jackson edge
Jackson has led most public polls by 1 to 2 points for months, and both major averages put him ahead by just over a point. That is well inside the margin of error, but it has been consistent across pollsters, including the nonpartisan University of Georgia survey.
2. Georgia split its ticket in 2022, and the polls say it will again
In 2022, Kemp won by 7.5 points in the same election in which the Senate race went to a runoff. This year, the UGA/AJC poll shows the same pattern: Ossoff up 8, Jackson up 1. Kemp’s approval rating is about 70%, he backed Jackson in the primary, and Jackson skipped Trump’s rally in Macon, positioning himself as the Kemp-style Republican rather than the Trump-style one.
3. A historic money gap
Pro-Jackson groups have spent or reserved roughly nine times as much on general-election advertising as Bottoms’s side, about $76 million to $8 million, backed by more than $108 million of Jackson’s own money. In a race this close, that kind of advantage in reaching persuadable voters is hard to dismiss.
Almost everything outside the polls points the other way. In the UGA poll, 68% of Democrats called themselves “very enthusiastic” about voting versus 48% of Republicans, and independents leaned Bottoms 43–38. Georgia had cast a record 1.78 million early ballots by October 26, and TargetSmart’s modeling put that electorate at 54% Democratic-aligned to 41% Republican. If turnout looks like that on Tuesday, Bottoms wins, and the latest poll, Echelon’s, already has her narrowly ahead. The markets agree with that reading. We think the split-ticket voters who elected Kemp are still out there, but this is a genuine coin flip.
What to watch on election night
Georgia’s polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern, and the state usually reports early votes quickly. The key comparison is the gap between Ossoff and Bottoms in the suburban Atlanta counties: if Bottoms runs within a point or two of Ossoff there, she is likely to win. If Jackson is holding a sizable share of Ossoff voters, he likely holds on.
Georgia requires a majority to win outright. No Libertarian made the ballot this year, so a December runoff is unlikely.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Georgia governor race?
Our Final Call is Rick Jackson (R) by about 1 point, a Republican hold, with pure toss-up confidence. Prediction markets favor Keisha Lance Bottoms, so this is our call against the betting favorite.
Why is Jackson ahead when Ossoff leads the Senate race?
Georgia voters split their tickets in 2022, when Kemp won comfortably. In the UGA/AJC poll, Ossoff led 48–40 while Jackson led 46–45, suggesting a meaningful number of Ossoff voters also back the Kemp-endorsed Republican.
Could the Georgia governor race go to a runoff?
Georgia requires 50% plus one. With no Libertarian on the ballot this year, a December runoff is unlikely.
Jackson by 1. The polls and the money say Jackson; the enthusiasm gap, the early vote and the markets say Bottoms. We’re betting that Georgia’s Kemp voters split their tickets one more time, and we’d put this at barely better than a coin flip.
Sources
- 270toWin: Georgia governor polls
- AJC: Jackson has outspent Bottoms, but Democratic enthusiasm has the race knotted
- AJC poll: Ossoff leads Collins in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race
- AJC: Libertarians won’t be on the ballot in Georgia
- FOX 5 Atlanta: Georgia enters final week of early voting
- MultiState: Georgia governor race 2026
- Epoch Times: Cook’s final governor ratings
- Wikipedia: 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election