Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
An open seat: Sen. John Cornyn lost the Republican runoff to Paxton on May 26, so a Talarico win flips a Republican-held seat.
When Attorney General Ken Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican runoff, Democrats got the opponent they wanted. State Rep. James Talarico has led most polls since, in a state Trump carried by 13.7 points in 2024, where Ted Cruz won by 8.5 the same year. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot, polling at 1–3%.
With reported ad spending above $500 million, this is likely the most expensive Senate race in the country.
- Our call: Talarico by about 1, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: pure toss-up.
- Polls: Talarico leads the 270toWin average 49.6–46.7 (+2.9). Fox News and Rasmussen have it tied.
- Forecasters: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all rate it a Toss-Up. Kalshi gives Talarico about 66%.
- Money: Talarico reported $64 million in the third quarter to Paxton’s $18 million, including affiliated committees.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Talarico (D) | Paxton (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univision/YouGov | Oct. 27 release | 1,000 RV | 50 | 45 |
| Rasmussen R-leaning | Oct. 24 release | — | 45 | 45 |
| Emerson | Oct. 17–19 | 1,000 LV | 48 | 46 |
| TPOR | Oct. 15–18 | 969 LV | 51 | 47 |
| Fox News | Oct. 15–19 | 1,398 LV | 49 | 49 |
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | Oct. 16 release | 1,200 LV | 48 | 49 |
Univision/YouGov surveyed registered rather than likely voters. With leaners, Emerson had Talarico 49, Paxton 48 and Brown 3. TPOR’s sponsor was not stated.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Late Oct. |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Late Oct. |
| Inside Elections | Toss-Up | Oct. 23 |
| Silver Bulletin | Talarico 74.3% | Early Oct. |
| Kalshi | Talarico ~66% | Oct. 28 |
Why we’re calling it for Talarico
1. He leads more polls than he trails
Of the six late polls we verified, Talarico leads four, two are tied, and only the Republican-leaning InsiderAdvantage has Paxton ahead, by a single point. A nearly 3-point average lead in Texas is something Democrats have rarely had this late.
2. The money gap is enormous
Talarico’s campaign reported raising $64 million in the third quarter against Paxton’s $18 million, including affiliated committees. Paxton has outside help, including a reported $10 million from Elon Musk to a pro-Paxton PAC, but the Democratic side has been able to define the race.
3. Paxton’s campaign has struggled
Leaked audio caught Paxton saying he had lost “control” of his own campaign. Meanwhile, Harris County is setting early-vote records, with 362,000 ballots cast by October 22, and Democrats have been voting early at higher rates.
This is why we cut a 3-point average to 1: Texas polls have overstated Democrats for a decade. The state’s Republican baseline is enormous, with Trump at +13.7 and Cruz at +8.5 just two years ago. Fox News, one of the largest likely-voter samples, has it tied. Talarico also lost about 9 days on the trail to the flu in early October. And if Libertarian Ted Brown’s 1–3% fades on Election Day, those voters likely break toward Paxton. Any normal-sized Texas polling miss flips this call.
What to watch on election night
Most of Texas closes at 8 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. Central); the far-western counties on Mountain time close at 9 p.m. Eastern. Early votes are typically reported first and lean Democratic this year, so an early Talarico lead may narrow. Watch turnout in the big metro counties, starting with Harris, against Paxton’s margins in rural Texas.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Texas Senate race?
Our Final Call is James Talarico by about 1 point, a Democratic pickup, with pure toss-up confidence.
What do the latest Texas Senate polls show?
Talarico leads the 270toWin average by 2.9 points. Recent polls include Emerson (48–46 Talarico), Fox News (49–49) and InsiderAdvantage (49–48 Paxton).
Why isn’t John Cornyn on the ballot?
Ken Paxton defeated Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff on May 26, 2026.
Talarico by 1. Every number this year points to a Democratic win in Texas, and every year for a decade those numbers have been wrong in the same direction. We’re betting this is the year the polls finally hold, by the narrowest possible margin.