Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is term-limited. A Masterson win gives Republicans the governor’s office in a state Trump carried by 16 points.
Democrat Laura Kelly won the Kansas governorship twice, the second time by 2.2 points in 2022, in a state Trump carried by 16.1 points in 2024. With Kelly term-limited, the open seat pits Senate President Ty Masterson (R) against state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D).
Kansas is one of the places where a Democratic national wave runs into a steep partisan wall. Our call is that the wall holds in the governor’s race.
- Our call: Masterson by about 5, a Republican pickup. Confidence: lean Republican.
- Polls: Masterson led all four public polls we verified, by 3 to 8 points. The average is Masterson 49.5–43.8.
- Markets: Polymarket and Kalshi give Masterson about 73%, and Kalshi’s margin market centers near Masterson +5.
- Watch out: Cook moved the race to Toss-Up in its final ratings, citing volatility. We found no public poll after early October.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Masterson (R) | Holscher (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Released Oct. 6 | 2,252 LV | 47 | 44 |
| NYT/Siena | Released Oct. 4 | 605 LV | 49 | 44 |
| Emerson | Released Sept. 18 | 750 LV | 51 | 44 |
| co/efficient R-leaning | Released Sept. 11 | 915 LV | 51 | 43 |
The 270toWin average is Masterson 49.5–43.8. The gap is the important caveat: there has been no public poll in the race since early October, so we cannot rule out late movement.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Oct. 27 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean R | Sept. 4 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean R (67%) | Late Oct. |
| Polymarket / Kalshi | Masterson ~73% | Late Oct. |
Cook moved Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss-Up in its final update, around October 27. Sabato’s most recent rating we found is Lean Republican.
Why we’re calling it for Masterson
1. Every poll has Masterson ahead
Four public polls from September and early October, including the New York Times/Siena College and YouGov, all show Masterson leading, by margins of 3 to 8 points. Even the closest of them has Holscher stuck at 44%.
2. Kansas’s partisan baseline is steep
Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024. Kelly overcame that with an established brand and incumbency. Holscher has neither: she has lower name recognition than Masterson, and an RGA-linked group is running ads warning that Democrats would “turn Kansas into California.”
3. Masterson has the resources edge
Masterson has a seven-figure ad buy and about $360,000 more cash on hand than Holscher. The money gap is far smaller than in other races, but it points in the same direction as the polls.
Kansas has surprised before: Kelly won in 2018 and 2022 when Republicans were favored on paper. The national environment is roughly 9 points more Democratic than average, Masterson has avoided further debates, and Cook moved the race to Toss-Up in its final ratings, citing volatility. Most important, no one has released a public poll since early October. If the Democratic wave lifted Holscher in the last three weeks, there is no public data that would show it.
What to watch on election night
Most Kansas polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. Central); a few far-western counties on Mountain time close an hour later. Watch Johnson County in suburban Kansas City, the state’s largest: Holscher needs a commanding margin there to offset rural Kansas. Advance voting in Kansas has been running at more than double the last midterm’s pace, so early returns will carry a lot of weight.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Kansas governor race?
Our Final Call is Ty Masterson (R) by about 5 points, a Republican pickup, with lean-Republican confidence.
Is Laura Kelly running again?
No. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is term-limited, making this an open seat between Ty Masterson (R) and Cindy Holscher (D).
What do the latest Kansas governor polls show?
Masterson led all four public polls we verified, including NYT/Siena (49–44) and YouGov (47–44). We found no public poll released after early October.
Masterson by 5. Without Laura Kelly on the ballot, Kansas looks like Kansas again. The lack of late polling is the main reason this is Lean rather than Likely.