Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. A Pappas win keeps the open seat in Democratic hands.
New Hampshire looked like Republicans’ best chance to take a Democratic seat when John E. Sununu, a former senator and member of the state’s best-known Republican family, entered the race for Jeanne Shaheen’s open seat. Harris carried New Hampshire by only 2.8 points in 2024.
But Rep. Chris Pappas has led every poll we can find since late September, and his lead has barely moved.
- Our call: Pappas by about 6, a Democratic hold. Confidence: Likely Democratic.
- Polls: Pappas led all six polls since late September by 6 to 8 points. 270toWin’s average is Pappas 49.7–42.8.
- Ticket-splitting: The same electorate favors Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte for re-election by about 8 to 10 points. Voters here are separating the two races.
- Markets: Kalshi has Pappas at 89% and Polymarket at 90%.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pappas (D) | Sununu (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports R-leaning | Oct. 26 release | — | 50 | 44 |
| Saint Anselm College | Oct. 22 release | 1,672 LV | 50 | 43 |
| NPA Polling R-leaning | Oct. 16 release | 600 LV | 50 | 43 |
| Saint Anselm College | Oct. 6 release | 1,042 LV | 51 | 44 |
| YouGov | Oct. 6 release | 1,519 LV | 51 | 43 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sept. 24 release | 1,418 LV | 50 | 42 |
The consistency is the story: every poll has Pappas between 50% and 51% and Sununu between 42% and 44%, including the two from Republican-leaning firms.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | Oct. 6 |
| Kalshi | Pappas 89% | Oct. 28 |
| Polymarket | Pappas 90% | Oct. 28 |
Cook moved the race from Toss-Up to Lean D on October 6. We could not verify current ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball or Inside Elections. Our call is one notch more confident than Cook’s.
Why we’re calling it for Pappas
1. A lead that hasn’t moved
Pappas has polled at 50% or 51% in six straight surveys spanning more than a month. Sununu has been stuck between 42% and 44%. Races that are this stable this late rarely break sharply.
2. Independents are with Pappas
New Hampshire elections are decided by undeclared voters, and recent coverage shows Pappas winning them. In a year when Democrats lead the national generic ballot by 8 to 9 points, the independents who keep New Hampshire competitive are leaning his way.
3. Sununu hasn’t changed the subject
Sununu has avoided national topics and many interviews, trying to run on his family name and local issues. That approach works for Republicans in New Hampshire governor races, as Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s lead shows. In a Senate race that decides control of Congress, the national stakes are harder to set aside.
New Hampshire’s voters clearly split tickets: Saint Anselm College’s October 22 release had Pappas up 7 and Ayotte up 8. If more of Ayotte’s voters come home to Sununu than polls suggest, a 6-point race could become a 2-point one. Sununu’s name is also an asset no poll fully captures. Still, overturning a lead this consistent would require a polling miss larger than anything we see elsewhere this year.
What to watch on election night
Most New Hampshire polling places close at 7 p.m. Eastern, and all close by 8 p.m. New Hampshire counts quickly, so this is among the first competitive Senate races with substantial returns.
Compare Pappas’s numbers with those of Democrat Cinde Warmington in the governor’s race. If Pappas is running well ahead of her, the ticket-splitting the polls predict is real and Pappas is on track.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the New Hampshire Senate race?
Our Final Call is Chris Pappas by about 6 points, a Democratic hold, with Likely Democratic confidence.
What do the latest New Hampshire Senate polls show?
Pappas led every poll since late September, including Saint Anselm College’s October survey (50–43) and Rasmussen Reports (50–44). 270toWin’s average is Pappas 49.7–42.8.
Is John E. Sununu related to former Gov. Chris Sununu?
Yes. John E. Sununu, a former U.S. senator, is the older brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu.
Pappas by 6. A steady lead, strength with independents and a national environment that makes it hard for any Republican to win a Senate seat in a state Harris carried. Sununu’s name made this a race; it hasn’t made him the favorite.
Sources
- 270toWin: New Hampshire Senate polls
- RealClearPolling: Latest Senate polls
- Political Wire: Pappas leads Sununu in New Hampshire Senate race
- 270toWin: Cook Political Report 2026 Senate ratings
- DeFi Rate: Senate odds
- Quiver Quantitative: Pappas fundraising update (FEC)
- Boston 25 News: Pappas holds lead as candidates make final push
- 270toWin: New Hampshire governor polls