Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Osborn is running as an independent; in 2024 he pledged not to caucus with either party. An Osborn win would cost Republicans a seat without directly adding one for Democrats.
Nebraska should not be competitive. Trump won it 59.3% to 38.9% in 2024. But in that same election, independent Dan Osborn held Republican Sen. Deb Fischer to a 53.2–46.5 win, far closer than the state’s partisan lean. Now he is running against Sen. Pete Ricketts, the former governor.
There is no Democrat on the ballot. The Democratic nominee withdrew and the state party voted on August 24 not to fill the vacancy, leaving Osborn as the only serious alternative to Ricketts. Mike Marvin of the Legal Marijuana Now Party is also on the ballot.
- Our call: Ricketts by about 4, a Republican hold. Confidence: Lean Republican.
- Polls: 270toWin’s average is Ricketts 46.0–43.7. Nonpartisan polls have shown Osborn narrowly ahead; the most recent, from Republican-leaning firms, show Ricketts ahead.
- Money: The Senate Leadership Fund has committed $15 million for Ricketts, against roughly $12.8 million or more in outside money backing Osborn.
- Markets: Kalshi has Ricketts at 71% and Polymarket at 72%.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Osborn (I) | Ricketts (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPA Polling R-leaning | October | — | 43 | 46 |
| YouGov | Sept. 24–Oct. 3 | 1,809 LV | 48 | 47 |
| SurveyUSA | Sept. 8–13 | — | 46 | 42 |
A co/efficient poll, from a Republican firm, fielded September 28–30 had Ricketts ahead by 5; we could not confirm its full toplines, so it is not listed above. Public polling here is sparse, and few polls have been released in the final weeks.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely R | Late Oct. |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean R | Oct. 14 |
| Inside Elections | Lean R | Late Oct. |
| Kalshi | Ricketts 71% | Late Oct. |
| Polymarket | Ricketts 72% | Late Oct. |
Sabato moved the race from Likely R to Lean R on October 14. No major forecaster rates it a toss-up.
Why we’re calling it for Ricketts
1. The math of a Trump +20 state
Osborn needs a large share of Trump voters. He came close in 2024, losing by 6.7 points while Trump won the state by more than 20, so it’s possible. But winning requires closing that last 7 points against a stronger, better-funded opponent than Fischer, the incumbent who had beaten Osborn by that margin.
2. Ricketts has resources Osborn can’t match
Ricketts is a former two-term governor and a member of one of Nebraska’s wealthiest families. The Senate Leadership Fund put $15 million behind him, more than the roughly $12.8 million in outside money backing Osborn that we could identify.
3. The late polls lean Ricketts
Osborn’s best polls, from SurveyUSA and YouGov, were fielded in September and early October. The more recent numbers have come from Republican-leaning firms, but they point the same way, and 270toWin’s average has Ricketts up 2.3. Undecided voters in a state this Republican are more likely to break toward the Republican.
Osborn has already shown he can outperform the partisan baseline by double digits, and the national environment is far more Democratic than it was in 2024. With no Democrat on the ballot, every anti-Ricketts vote goes to Osborn. Public polling is thin and dated, and the most recent surveys are from Republican-leaning firms. If the nonpartisan polls from September were right, this is a coin flip. An Osborn win is the most plausible true upset on our board.
What to watch on election night
Most of Nebraska’s polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern (8 p.m. Central); the Mountain-time panhandle closes an hour later. Watch Douglas County (Omaha) and Lancaster County (Lincoln), where Osborn needs big margins, and then the rural counties.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Nebraska Senate race?
Our Final Call is Pete Ricketts by about 4 points, a Republican hold, with Lean Republican confidence. An Osborn upset is plausible.
Is there a Democrat in the Nebraska Senate race?
No. The Democratic nominee withdrew, and the Nebraska Democratic Party voted not to fill the vacancy. Dan Osborn is running as an independent.
Would Dan Osborn caucus with Democrats?
Osborn is running as an independent. In his 2024 campaign he pledged not to caucus with either party. A win would reduce the Republican seat count but would not add a Democrat.
Ricketts by 4. Osborn has built the strongest independent campaign in the country two cycles running, and the national environment gives him a real path. But a state Trump won by 20, a well-funded incumbent and late polls tilting Republican make Ricketts the favorite.