Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
We are more cautious than Cook and Split Ticket, which rate the race Lean D and Likely D. A tied Siena poll keeps this a toss-up for us.
The Harrisburg-area 10th District voted for Trump 52.0–46.8 in 2024, and Rep. Scott Perry beat Janelle Stelson 50.5–49.3 that year. Its Cook PVI is R+3.
The rematch has been close all fall. Two polls show Stelson narrowly ahead; the most recent, from Siena, shows a tie.
- Our call: Stelson by about 1, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: toss-up.
- Polls: Siena (Oct. 16–22) has it tied 48–48. Susquehanna (Stelson 49–46) and Franklin & Marshall (47–44) had her slightly ahead.
- Issues: Voters trust Stelson more on cost of living (50–43) and Perry more on immigration (50–45).
- Ratings: Cook moved the race to Lean D on Oct. 9; Inside Elections still calls it a Toss-Up.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Stelson (D) | Perry (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/Inquirer/Siena | Oct. 16–22 | 404 LV | 48 | 48 |
| Susquehanna Sponsor not found | Released ~Oct. 17 | 300 LV | 49 | 46 |
| Franklin & Marshall | ~Sept. 24 | 390 RV | 47 | 44 |
We could confirm the Susquehanna poll only through 270toWin’s poll listing; its sponsor and field dates were not available. Siena found Trump’s approval in the district at 43/55 and Gov. Josh Shapiro’s at 57/38.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | Oct. 23 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean D | Oct. 27 |
| Inside Elections | Toss-Up | Oct. 15 |
| Split Ticket | Likely D | Oct. 25 |
Why we’re calling it for Stelson
1. The environment is enough to cover a 1-point race
Perry won by 1.2 points in a Republican-leaning year. A national swing anywhere near the current generic-ballot lead of roughly 9 points should be enough to flip a race that close.
2. Cost of living is the bigger issue, and Stelson owns it
Voters trust Stelson over Perry on cost of living by 7 points in the Siena poll. Perry’s edge on immigration is smaller, at 5.
3. Stelson has the resources
As of June 30, Stelson had raised $6.36 million to Perry’s $5.19 million, and she has held the cash advantage through the race.
The most recent and highest-quality poll shows a tie, and Siena found Perry was the only one of the four Pennsylvania Republican incumbents it surveyed who is not trailing. Perry has survived close races before. If the Siena result is right and late-deciding Republicans break his way, he holds the seat. This is one of the coin flips on our board, and we are calling it for Stelson by the narrowest margin we use.
What to watch on election night
Pennsylvania’s polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Dauphin County, including Harrisburg, is Stelson’s base; York and Cumberland counties are where Perry needs his margins. Pennsylvania has historically counted mail ballots slowly, so a race this tight may take until Wednesday or later to call.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PA-10 in 2026?
Our Final Call is Janelle Stelson by about 1 point, defeating Rep. Scott Perry, with toss-up confidence.
What do the PA-10 polls show?
The NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll (Oct. 16–22, 404 likely voters) has the race tied 48–48. Susquehanna and Franklin & Marshall polls had Stelson ahead by 3.
Is this a rematch?
Yes. Perry beat Stelson 50.5–49.3 in 2024.
Stelson by 1. A tie in the best poll, a Democratic year and a 2024 margin of barely a point make this a true coin flip. We lean to Stelson because the swing needed is so small.
Sources
- Philadelphia Inquirer: Perry–Stelson poll
- 270toWin: PA-10 polls
- Ballotpedia: Perry and Stelson set for PA-10 rematch
- Siena: NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll of Pennsylvania congressional districts
- 270toWin: Cook Political Report House ratings (Oct. 23)
- 270toWin: Sabato’s Crystal Ball House ratings (Oct. 27)
- Silver Bulletin: generic ballot average