Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
A Cognetti win flips a Trump +8 district that Bresnahan took from Democrats in 2024.
Northeastern Pennsylvania’s 8th District voted for Donald Trump 53.8–45.4 in 2024, and Rep. Rob Bresnahan won it that year 50.7–49.1. Its Cook PVI is R+4, the reddest of the Pennsylvania seats on our board.
Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti has made the race about Bresnahan’s roughly 650 stock trades. The one recent independent poll has her ahead by 5.
- Our call: Cognetti by about 3, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: Lean D.
- Polls: NYT/Inquirer/Siena (Oct. 16–22) has Cognetti 51–46.
- Money: Outside groups have spent more than $10 million, including over $3 million from the Republican Congressional Leadership Fund.
- Ratings: Cook still calls it a Toss-Up; Sabato and Split Ticket say Lean D.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Cognetti (D) | Bresnahan (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/Inquirer/Siena | Oct. 16–22 | LV | 51 | 46 |
| PPP Older | Aug. 2025 | — | 45 | 43 |
Public polling here is thin: one recent poll and one more than a year old. Both show Cognetti ahead.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Oct. 23 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean D | Oct. 27 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | Oct. 15 |
| Split Ticket | Lean D | Oct. 25 |
Why we’re calling it for Cognetti
1. The best poll shows a clear lead
A 5-point Cognetti lead in a Trump +8 district is a strong result, and it matches the direction of every other Pennsylvania district Siena polled this month.
2. Bresnahan’s cushion was tiny to begin with
He won by 1.6 points in a strong Republican year. A national environment around D+9 is a swing far larger than that margin.
3. The stock-trading attack fits the year
Bresnahan’s roughly 650 stock trades, along with local fights over data centers, have been the Democrats’ main lines of attack. Ethics messages tend to land harder when voters are already sour on the party in power.
This is still an R+4 seat, and the evidence for a Cognetti lead rests largely on a single poll. Bresnahan has leaned on union endorsements to hold working-class voters who backed Trump, and Republican outside groups have been spending heavily, with the Congressional Leadership Fund alone above $3 million compared with $1.7 million from House Majority PAC. If those voters come home late, he holds.
What to watch on election night
Pennsylvania’s polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Lackawanna County, home to Scranton, is Cognetti’s base; Luzerne County is the swing. Pennsylvania has historically counted mail ballots slowly, so the count may move in stages.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PA-08 in 2026?
Our Final Call is Paige Cognetti by about 3 points, flipping the seat from Rep. Rob Bresnahan, with Lean Democratic confidence.
What do the PA-08 polls show?
The NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll (Oct. 16–22) has Cognetti ahead 51–46. We found no other public poll from this fall.
Why is Bresnahan vulnerable?
He won by just 1.6 points in 2024, and Democrats have focused on his roughly 650 stock trades in a strongly Democratic national environment.
Cognetti by 3. It is the reddest Pennsylvania seat on our board, but the polling, the environment and Bresnahan’s thin 2024 margin all point toward a flip.
Sources
- Siena: NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll of Pennsylvania congressional districts
- Ballotpedia: Bresnahan and Cognetti in a toss-up general
- Roll Call: Pennsylvania battleground, Cognetti vs. Bresnahan
- 270toWin: Cook Political Report House ratings (Oct. 23)
- 270toWin: Sabato’s Crystal Ball House ratings (Oct. 27)
- Silver Bulletin: generic ballot average