Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
This is the most judgment-based call on our House board: we found no public 2026 poll of the district.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur has represented Toledo for more than four decades, and she has never had a tougher district. Ohio’s new congressional map gave the Toledo-based 9th lines that Trump carried 54.8–44.2 in 2024, about an 11-point margin. Legis1 lists its Cook PVI at R+3.
Her opponent is Derek Merrin, whom she beat 48.3–47.6 in 2024 on friendlier lines, a margin of 2,382 votes. It is one of the few Democratic-held seats both Cook and Sabato rate a Toss-Up.
- Our call: Kaptur by about 2, a Democratic hold. Confidence: toss-up.
- Polls: We found no public poll of the race. This call rests on history, the national environment and the statewide picture.
- Map: The redrawn district voted for Trump by about 11 points in 2024.
- Money: Kaptur had raised $4.3 million to Merrin’s $1.5 million as of June 30.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Kaptur (D) | Merrin (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public 2026 poll found | — | — | — | — |
We searched for public polling of the 2026 race and found none. Statewide, polling averages show Democrats Sherrod Brown (Senate) and Amy Acton (governor) each ahead by roughly 3 to 4 points in a state Trump won by 11, which suggests a large Democratic swing in Ohio this year.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Oct. 23 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 27 |
Inside Elections has described the district as “tough for a Democrat” while calling Kaptur “a proven overperformer.” Over the summer, forecasters’ ratings ranged from Lean D to Tilt R.
Why we’re calling it for Kaptur
1. Kaptur has outrun her district before
She survived 2024 in a strong Republican year, and she won in 2022 by 14 points. Few House members have a longer record of running ahead of their party’s presidential nominee.
2. Ohio is swinging hard toward Democrats this year
A state Trump won by 11 is showing Democrats ahead for both Senate and governor in the polling averages. A swing of that size statewide would roughly erase the new district’s Republican tilt.
3. She has the money advantage
Kaptur raised $4.3 million through June 30, nearly three times Merrin’s $1.5 million, including the biggest quarterly haul of her four-decade career in early 2026.
This is a Trump +11 district, and Merrin nearly won on easier Republican terrain two years ago. Without a single public poll, we cannot check our assumption that Ohio’s statewide swing is reaching northwest Ohio. Ohio polls also underestimated Republicans by about 3.5 points in 2024. If that happens again and Kaptur’s personal edge has faded after more than 40 years in office, Merrin flips the seat.
What to watch on election night
Ohio’s polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. Lucas County, home to Toledo, is Kaptur’s base; the rural counties added by the new map are where Merrin will build his margin. Ohio reports early and mail ballots first, so early returns may look better for Democrats than the final count.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win OH-09 in 2026?
Our Final Call is Rep. Marcy Kaptur by about 2 points over Derek Merrin, a Democratic hold, with toss-up confidence.
Are there polls of the OH-09 race?
We found no public poll of the 2026 race. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate it a Toss-Up.
How did Ohio’s new map change OH-09?
The redrawn district voted for Trump 54.8–44.2 in 2024, making it significantly more Republican than the lines Kaptur won on that year.
Kaptur by 2. The new map is built to beat her, but her record of outrunning her party and Ohio’s statewide swing toward Democrats should carry her through one more time.