Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Open seat: Rep. David Schweikert (R) ran for governor. Our confidence is limited because we found only one public poll.
Arizona’s 1st District voted for Trump by about 3 points in 2024, and Rep. David Schweikert beat Amish Shah 51.9–48.1 that year. Schweikert then left to run for governor and lost, leaving the seat open. Its Cook PVI is R+1, and Republicans outnumber Democrats in registration, roughly 194,000 to 135,000.
Shah’s opponent is former NFL kicker Jay Feely. A Libertarian, Monica Alponte, and a No Labels candidate, Christopher Ajluni, are also on the ballot.
- Our call: Shah by about 3, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: Lean D.
- Polls: The only public poll we found, from FirstStrategic (Oct. 1), has Shah 44–41, winning independents by 22 points.
- Money: Republican groups have spent more than $22 million for Feely, much of it late.
- Ratings: Cook moved the race to Lean D on Sept. 25; Sabato agrees.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Shah (D) | Feely (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FirstStrategic Sponsor not found | ~Oct. 1 | 400 LV | 44 | 41 |
One outlet reported Feely at 42 rather than 41 in this poll. Either way, it is a single 400-person survey, and we weight it accordingly.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | Oct. 23 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean D | Oct. 27 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | Oct. 15 |
Cook no longer lists AZ-01 as a Toss-Up. We could not find a current Split Ticket rating for this district.
Why we’re calling it for Shah
1. Shah is winning independents
In a district where Republicans hold a large registration edge, independents decide elections. Shah’s 22-point lead among them in the FirstStrategic poll is the main reason he leads overall.
2. He has unusual crossover support
Shah has endorsements from No Labels and from Rusty Bowers, the former Republican speaker of the Arizona House. That kind of backing helps in a seat where Democrats cannot win on their own voters.
3. The open seat removes the incumbent advantage
Shah came within 4 points of an entrenched incumbent in a strong Republican year. Facing a first-time candidate in a Democratic year, the math is better for him.
Republicans are taking this seat seriously. More than $22 million in Republican spending, Trump’s personal involvement and former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema campaigning for Feely could shift the independents Shah depends on. And with a single public poll, our evidence is thinner here than in almost any other race on our board. Minor-party candidates could also pull votes unpredictably in a close finish.
What to watch on election night
Arizona’s polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. local). The first results usually include early ballots, but Arizona counts late-arriving early ballots for days after the election, so a close race here may not be decided on election night.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AZ-01 in 2026?
Our Final Call is Amish Shah by about 3 points over Jay Feely, a Democratic pickup of an open Republican seat, with Lean Democratic confidence.
Why is AZ-01 an open seat?
Rep. David Schweikert left the seat to run for governor and lost.
What do the AZ-01 polls show?
The only public poll we found, from FirstStrategic (about Oct. 1, 400 likely voters), has Shah ahead 44–41.
Shah by 3. He nearly won this seat against an incumbent in a Republican year; open and in a Democratic year, it leans his way. The $22 million Republicans have spent, and a lack of polling, keep us from going further.
Sources
- Arizona Capitol Times: Independents to be a deciding factor in CD1
- Cook Political Report: AZ-01 after Schweikert’s departure
- Joe.My.God (via Politico): Trump tries to save Feely
- 270toWin: Cook Political Report House ratings (Oct. 23)
- 270toWin: Sabato’s Crystal Ball House ratings (Oct. 27)
- Silver Bulletin: generic ballot average