Final Call made October 29, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is term-limited. An Acton win would give Ohio its first Democratic governor since Ted Strickland left office in 2011.
Ohio voted for Trump by 11.2 points in 2024, and Gov. Mike DeWine won re-election by 25 points in 2022. This year’s open-seat race pits Amy Acton, DeWine’s former health director, against Vivek Ramaswamy. Independent Timothy Grady and Libertarian Donald Kissick are also on the ballot.
On paper, Ohio should be safe for Republicans. In the polls, it hasn’t been close to safe for weeks.
- Our call: Acton by about 4, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: lean Democratic.
- Polls: Acton led every nonpartisan October poll we verified. Averages: Acton +3.2 (270toWin) and +4.4 (RealClearPolling).
- Ratings: Cook and Sabato both moved the race to Lean Democratic in late October.
- Money: Ramaswamy and his allies spent $101 million on ads by mid-October, about three times Acton’s side.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Acton (D) | Ramaswamy (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verasight | Released Oct. 22 | 531 LV | 46 | 45 |
| New River / GSG D-affiliated | Released Oct. 21 | 959 LV | 49 | 44 |
| Fox News | Released Oct. 21 | 1,592 LV | 50 | 48 |
| Marist | Released Oct. 20 | 1,176 LV | 50 | 43 |
| BGSU / YouGov | Released Oct. 16 | 1,000 LV | 50 | 44 |
| co/efficient R-leaning | Oct. 5–6 | 925 LV | 43 | 45 |
Averages: 270toWin has Acton 49.0–45.8; RealClearPolling has Acton 48.7–44.3. The only poll in this set with Ramaswamy ahead came from a Republican-leaning firm in early October.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | Oct. 23 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Lean D | Oct. 22 |
| Inside Elections | Toss-Up | Oct. 1 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Acton 60% | Late Oct. |
| Polymarket / Kalshi | Acton ~82–83% | Late Oct. |
Cook moved the race from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic on October 23, after the backlash to a Ramaswamy ad. Inside Elections’ most recent rating we found, from October 1, is Toss-Up.
Why we’re calling it for Acton
1. A consistent lead across nonpartisan pollsters
Marist (+7), BGSU/YouGov (+6), Fox News (+2) and Verasight (+1) all have Acton ahead, and she reaches 50% in three of them. When different nonpartisan methods agree on the leader, the lead is usually real, even if its size is uncertain.
2. The “mother ad” backfired
A roughly $4 million ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother. It drew a broad backlash, including criticism from Gov. DeWine himself, and it preceded Cook’s shift to Lean Democratic.
3. The whole Democratic ticket is running well in Ohio
Sherrod Brown also leads the Senate race, and the national environment is roughly 8 to 9 points more Democratic than a neutral year. Acton doesn’t have to win over Trump voters in bulk; she needs a modest slice of them plus an energized Democratic base.
Ohio polls have overstated Democrats before: Brown led many 2024 polls and lost his own seat. Ramaswamy and his allies had spent $101 million on ads by mid-October, $36 million of it his own money, and some Democratic strategists warn that late-deciding Republicans tend to “come home.” If this year’s polls miss by as much as 2024’s did, a 4-point Acton lead is gone.
What to watch on election night
Ohio’s polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. Early and mail ballots are typically among the first results posted, and Democrats have led the early vote this year, so expect Acton to start strong. The real test comes as Election Day votes from rural and exurban counties report. Watch Ohio’s big suburban counties around Columbus and Cincinnati, where Acton needs to run well ahead of Harris’s 2024 numbers.
Our Final Call weighs nonpartisan likely-voter polls most heavily, then adjusts for each state’s record of polling misses, early-vote data, fundraising and ad spending, and the ratings and prediction markets we cite. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how often we’d expect a call like this to hold. See every call and our full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Ohio governor race?
Our Final Call is Amy Acton (D) by about 4 points over Vivek Ramaswamy (R), a Democratic pickup, with lean-Democratic confidence.
What do the latest Ohio governor polls show?
Acton led every nonpartisan October poll we verified, including Marist (50–43) and BGSU/YouGov (50–44). The polling averages put her ahead by 3 to 4 points.
What was the Ramaswamy “mother ad”?
A roughly $4 million ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother. It drew criticism from across the spectrum, including from Gov. Mike DeWine, and Cook moved the race toward Acton afterward.
Acton by 4. She has led every nonpartisan poll, the forecasters have moved her way, and Ramaswamy’s spending edge has not closed the gap. Ohio’s history of overstating Democrats is the main thing keeping this at Lean rather than Likely.
Sources
- 270toWin: Ohio governor polls
- Political.org: Cook shifts Ohio governor’s race to Lean Democrat
- JoeMyGod: Sabato shifts Ohio governor race toward Acton
- MultiState: Ohio governor race 2026
- 270toWin: Inside Elections governor ratings
- Newsweek: Sherrod Brown’s polling lead defies Ohio’s Republican shift
- Kalshi: Democrats outpace Republicans in Ohio early voting
- Wikipedia: 2024 presidential election in Ohio