Kansas U.S. Senate 2026
A sourced guide to the race between Sen. Roger Marshall and Adam Hamilton: every public poll, the ratings, the money, and where official results will appear. This is not an endorsement.
Our Final Call · editor’s call, Oct 30Hamilton (D) by 2Read why →The Kansas Senate race: history, data and the final week
Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and Donald Trump carried the state by about 16 points in 2024. Yet three polls released in the final week, from CNN, Emerson and The Washington Post with George Mason University, all show Adam Hamilton ahead of Sen. Roger Marshall, and Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all rate the race a Toss-Up. Earlier in the year, all three rated it safely Republican.
How this state voted before
Marshall won this open seat in 2020 after four years in the U.S. House. The same electorate rejected the Republican-backed state Supreme Court amendment 62–38 on August 4, 2026, and the open governor’s race on this ballot is also rated a Toss-Up by Cook.
Historic vote shares describe previous electorates, not a projection of the 2026 outcome.
Meet the candidates
Adam Hamilton
Founding pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, which began in 1990 in a funeral-home chapel and now has about 25,000 members at nine Kansas City-area sites, the largest United Methodist congregation in the country. Hamilton, 61, has written more than 30 books. He is a first-time candidate on unpaid leave from the church; he announced in April and won the August 4 primary.
Roger Marshall
An OB-GYN from Great Bend and Army Reserve veteran, Marshall served in the U.S. House from 2017 to 2021 before winning the Senate seat in 2020. He sits on the Agriculture, Finance, Budget and HELP committees. He objected to certifying Arizona’s and Pennsylvania’s electoral votes on January 6, 2021, sponsored the 2023 EATS Act, and voted against the April 2024 Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan aid package. President Trump has endorsed him.
Also on the ballot: Libertarian David Graham. Sources: PBS NewsHour, Adam Hamilton, Roger Marshall.
Money and ratings
Hamilton’s campaign raised $9.9 million and began October with $3.2 million on hand. Marshall raised $866,000 and had $922,000 on hand (Roll Call). Hamilton raised a state-record $3.66 million in his first 62 days (Kansas Reflector).
The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund had reserved about $8.2 million for Marshall by October 2 (AP via KCTV) and about $14 million by late October (Latin Times). Senate Majority PAC announced a $5 million TV campaign for Hamilton.
Cook moved the race from Lean R to Toss-Up on October 6, Sabato’s Crystal Ball from Leans R to Toss-Up on October 14, and Inside Elections from Tilt R to Toss-Up in its final update (Roll Call).
More than 245,000 Kansans had voted early by October 27, about 80% more than at the same point in 2022 (KCUR). Emerson found voters who had already voted backing Hamilton 66–32 and those who had not backing Marshall 48–45.
Race timeline
Marshall wins the open seat, 53.2% to 41.8%.
Hamilton enters the race.
Primaries; voters also reject the court amendment 62–38.
Cook and Sabato move the race to Toss-Up.
We remove a fabricated Wedgewood poll from our coverage.
CNN, Emerson and Washington Post–GMU polls show Hamilton ahead; Inside Elections moves to Toss-Up.
Trump rally in Kansas, after a brief cancellation.
General election. Polls close at 7 p.m. Central in most of the state.
Polls and polling average
Every public poll of Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall we have tracked since Jan 28: 17 in all, 10 of them from independent pollsters that count toward the average. Updated October 31, 2026. Tap a dot for the poll’s details and source; switch to Margin for the clearest read on a phone. This is published polling, not a forecast.
Loading the interactive poll tracker… Every public poll we track for this race, newest first:
| Fielded | Pollster / source | Sample | Hamilton (D) | Marshall (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26–Oct 28 | Emerson College | 800 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 |
| Oct 20–Oct 27 | CNN / SSRS | 838 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 |
| Oct 22–Oct 26 | Washington Post / George Mason | 801 LV | 52 | 43 | D+9 |
| Oct 20–Oct 23 | RedBox Research Partisan | 1,301 LV | 45 | 45.7 | R+0.7 |
| Oct 13–Oct 14 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| Oct 9–Oct 10 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 47.5 | 46.7 | D+0.8 |
| Sep 30–Oct 4 | GBAO Partisan | 600 LV | 46 | 41 | D+5 |
| Sep 24–Oct 4 | YouGov | 2,255 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 |
| Sep 29–Oct 1 | Trafalgar Group | 1,095 LV | 44.4 | 43.5 | D+0.9 |
| Sep 22–Sep 30 | New York Times / Siena | 605 LV | 45 | 45 | Tie |
| Sep 13–Sep 16 | Global Strategy Group Partisan | 800 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 |
| Sep 15–Sep 16 | Emerson College | 750 LV | 45 | 43 | D+2 |
| Sep 8–Sep 10 | co/efficient | 915 LV | 44 | 49 | R+5 |
| Aug 12–Aug 16 | Global Strategy Group Partisan | 800 LV | 44 | 43 | D+1 |
| Aug 7–Aug 8 | Public Policy Polling Partisan | 569 LV | 45 | 46 | R+1 |
| Jul 8–Jul 13 | GBAO Partisan | 600 LV | 43 | 47 | R+4 |
| Jan 26–Jan 28 | Tavern Research Partisan | 1,013 LV | 46 | 54 | R+8 |
Final-week notes
The Washington Post published its poll with an unusual warning: Democrats were far more willing than Republicans to complete the survey, which can overstate Democratic support even after weighting. CNN’s and Emerson’s results, each Hamilton +4, are closer together. A Republican super PAC’s in-house poll (RedBox Research, Oct 20–23) had Marshall ahead by less than a point; it is listed in the poll table but, like the Democratic-sponsored polls, left out of our average.
Polls measure surveyed respondents during specific field dates. They do not determine the November 3 outcome.
Source notebook
Selected sources for this page; every poll has its own source link in the table above. Reviewed 2026-10-31.
Corrections welcome: corrections@electiontracker.live. This is independent informational coverage and does not endorse a candidate.
What to watch on November 3
Most Kansas polls close at 7 p.m. Central (8 p.m. Eastern); a few western counties on Mountain time close an hour later. Watch Johnson County, where early votes nearly doubled from 2022, and turnout in rural western Kansas.
Reading a race call: preliminary totals are unofficial. Media projections must name the projecting outlet; certification comes from authorized election officials.
Sources and election resources
Checked October 31, 2026.
Related coverage
Our Final Call: Kansas Senate · Why we made our two boldest calls · Marshall vs. Hamilton · Election-week update log.