Reporting as of October 22, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932. This year, Sen. Roger Marshall (R), an OB-GYN elected in 2020, faces Adam Hamilton (D), founding pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, the largest United Methodist congregation in the country.
- Ratings: Sabato moved the race to Toss-Up on October 14, matching Cook (October 6). Inside Elections moved it to Tilt R on October 20.
- Polls: No new public poll since NYT/Siena (Sept. 22–30) had Marshall up 47–46. Six credible polls since August; five within two points.
- Debate: They met on October 21 on WDAF FOX4.
- Markets: Kalshi gave Hamilton about a 39% chance on October 22.
The polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hamilton (D) | Marshall (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | Sept. 29–Oct. 1 | 1,095 LV | 44.4 | 43.5 |
| NYT/Siena | Sept. 22–30 | 605 LV | 46 | 47 |
| Emerson/Nexstar | Sept. 15–16 | 750 LV | 45 | 43 |
| co/efficient | Sept. 8–10 | 915 LV | 44 | 49 |
| Global Strategy Group | Aug. 12–16 | 800 LV | 44 | 43 |
| Public Policy Polling | Aug. 7–8 | — | 45 | 46 |
Libertarian David C. Graham is also on the ballot and has drawn 2% to 4% in polls that named him, roughly the size of the margin in most of these surveys. A YouGov poll had Hamilton ahead 48–45.
On October 20, Wedgewood Polls admitted that its polling data was not real. We removed a Wedgewood poll of this race that we had previously cited. More from WCMU.
Ratings and forecasts
| Forecaster | Rating | Last change |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Oct. 6 (from Lean R) |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 14 (from Leans R) |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | Oct. 20 (from Likely R) |
| Decision Desk HQ forecast | Lean R | Oct. 22 |
Why a pastor is competitive in Kansas
The candidate. Hamilton founded his church in 1990 with a handful of members meeting in a funeral home chapel; it now has about 25,000 members. He runs as a centrist and often notes that his congregation is split roughly evenly among Democrats, Republicans and independents. His central argument is that Marshall has been a “yes man” for Washington while tariffs and the Iran war have raised costs in Kansas.
The incumbent’s vulnerabilities. A New York Times investigation reported that Marshall’s medical practice sued more than 700 patients over unpaid bills and that about 81 were arrested after missing court dates. His campaign says he treated patients regardless of their ability to pay and that judges, not doctors, issue warrants.
The warning sign. On the August 4 primary ballot, Kansas voters rejected a Republican-backed constitutional amendment on the state Supreme Court, 62% to 38%. In 2022 they also rejected an abortion amendment by a wide margin. Kansas has a record of Republican-leaning voters breaking from the party on specific questions; whether they will do so on a Senate seat is the question.
What to watch
Most Kansas polls close at 7 p.m. Central (8 p.m. Eastern). Johnson County, in the Kansas City suburbs where Hamilton’s church is based, is the biggest prize: it has trended Democratic and is where Hamilton must run up his margin. He also needs to cut into Marshall’s margins in Wichita’s Sedgwick County and hold down losses in the rural western half of the state.
Frequently asked questions
When did Kansas last elect a Democratic senator?
In 1932.
Who is leading the Kansas Senate race?
It is essentially tied. The most recent nonpartisan poll, NYT/Siena (Sept. 22–30), had Marshall up 47–46.
Is there a third-party candidate?
Yes. Libertarian David C. Graham is on the ballot.
Kansas is the deepest-red state where Republicans are playing defense. Hamilton has kept every recent poll close, and two of the three major raters now call it a Toss-Up, but the markets and Inside Elections still give Marshall the edge in a state Trump won by 16 points.
Sources
- Political Wire: Five Senate races are now Toss-Ups, per Sabato (Oct. 14, 2026)
- Roll Call: Inside Elections rating changes (Oct. 20, 2026)
- Election Tracker Live: Kansas Senate poll table and Marshall background (Oct. 9, 2026)
- FOX4: Kansas Senate debate (Oct. 21, 2026)
- WCMU: Fake polling scandal (Oct. 22, 2026)
- Decision Desk HQ: 2026 Senate forecast (Oct. 22, 2026)
- DeFiRate: 2026 midterm odds snapshot (Oct. 22, 2026)