Our two boldest calls: Kansas and Iowa

Calls made October 30, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3

Every one of our 28 final calls runs through the same published formula: independent race ratings, polling averages and prediction-market prices, each put on a −3 to +3 scale and averaged. In 26 races we took the formula’s answer. In two, Kansas and Iowa, we didn’t.

What the formula said

Look at what drives those numbers. The ratings barely move the needle, since a Toss-Up scores zero and Tilt R scores 0.5. Most of the lean comes from prediction-market prices. The polling input comes from RealClearPolling’s average, and Silver Bulletin’s average disagrees with it in both states: Hamilton +1.1 in Kansas and Turek +1.2 in Iowa, as of October 29.

Swap Silver Bulletin’s average in for RealClearPolling’s and Iowa’s formula score flips to Turek by a hair, while Kansas shrinks to +0.11 toward Marshall. When the answer depends on which average you trust, the formula is telling you it doesn’t know. So we made the call, and we’re labeling it as ours.

Kansas: the newest polls point the same way

Until last week, every poll since mid-September had Kansas within three points. Then CNN/SSRS had Hamilton up 4, and a Washington Post-Schar School poll released October 30 had him up 9, 52–43, with a ±3.9-point margin of error. RedBox Research, in the field over nearly the same days as CNN, had Marshall up 1. Our formula’s inputs were frozen on October 29, before the Post-Schar poll came out.

The rest of the picture fits a close race that has been moving toward Hamilton. Advance voting is running at more than double the last midterm’s pace. The same Kansas voters rejected the Republican-backed Supreme Court amendment 62–38 in August. Ad commitments have hit a state record of about $71 million, with Democrats slightly ahead. Both Cook and Sabato rate it a Toss-Up. Our full Kansas call →

Iowa: the closest call on our board

Iowa’s polls are split almost evenly, and almost none falls outside its margin of error. What tips us to Turek is the rest of the ballot. Democrat Rob Sand leads the governor’s race, 54–42 among registered voters in Marist’s poll, so a Hinson win needs a lot of Sand voters to split their tickets. Trump’s approval in Iowa is underwater (44/53 in Marist), ABC News found the early vote running about 18 points more Democratic than in 2024, and the Libertarian on the ballot, pipeline opponent Thomas Laehn, is more likely to pull votes from Hinson than from Turek. Our full Iowa call →

What it means for the Senate

Democrats need a net gain of four seats for 51. On our formula alone, they get five pickups and a 52–48 Senate: North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Alaska and Maine. Kansas and Iowa would make it seven pickups and 54–46. So if both of these calls miss and everything else holds, our projection is still a Democratic Senate. These two calls are about the size of a majority, not whether there is one.

How we’ll be graded

On Monday, November 2, we rerun every race with the newest polls, ratings and market prices. If the formula moves to Hamilton or Turek on its own, we’ll drop the editor’s label. If new data turns against either call, we’ll say so on the page instead of quietly changing it. On election night, both calls go on our results board, and after the votes are counted we’ll publish how every one of our calls did, including these two.

What to watch on election night

Kansas mostly closes at 8 p.m. Eastern. Watch Johnson County, the Kansas City suburbs: Hamilton needs a big margin there to offset rural western Kansas. Iowa closes at 9 p.m. Eastern. Compare Turek’s numbers with Sand’s: if Turek runs close to Sand, he probably wins.

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