Nevada Governor 2026
A sourced guide to the Nevada governor race between Aaron Ford and Joe Lombardo: every public poll, the ratings and where official results will appear. This is not an endorsement.
Our Final CallFord Unseats LombardoRead why →The Nevada governor race: history, data and the final week
Lombardo and Ford did not hold a debate: Lombardo skipped a KUNR-hosted event, and Ford had declined earlier invitations, with both campaigns relying on roundtables and interviews instead. Noble Predictive Insights' final poll (Oct 26-28) found the race tied at 47%, with about 45% of likely voters saying they had already voted; Ford led that group 55% to 42% while Lombardo led among those yet to vote, 51% to 39%.
How this state voted before
Historic vote shares describe previous electorates, not a projection of the 2026 outcome.
Meet the candidates
Aaron Ford
Ford has been Nevada's attorney general since 2019 and previously served as majority leader of the Nevada Senate. He won the June 9, 2026 Democratic primary with 63% over Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill.
Joe Lombardo
Lombardo has been governor since January 2023 after serving as Clark County sheriff from 2015 to 2023. He won the June 9, 2026 Republican primary with about 91% of the vote.
Also on the ballot: Danielle Ford (independent) and 'None of These Candidates' also appear on the ballot.
Ratings and money
Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate it a Toss-Up; Inside Elections moved it from Tilt R to Toss-Up on Oct. 29.
The Nevada Independent reported (Jul 16) that Lombardo raised more than $16 million across his campaign and affiliated PACs in the second quarter versus about $2.5 million for Ford, and that Lombardo and GOP-aligned groups had spent more than $13 million on ads since December 2025 versus about $77,000 by Democrats.
Race timeline
Primaries: Ford beats Alexis Hill; Lombardo renominated
Nevada Independent reports Lombardo and Ford unlikely to debate
Early voting begins
Noble Predictive Insights poll of record: Lombardo 47, Ford 47
Election Day; polls close 7 p.m. PT (10 p.m. ET)
Polls and polling average
Every public poll of Aaron Ford vs. Joe Lombardo we have tracked since Feb 17: 13 in all, 4 of them from independent pollsters that count toward the average. Updated October 31, 2026. Tap a dot for the poll’s details and source; switch to Margin for the clearest read on a phone. This is published polling, not a forecast.
Loading the interactive poll tracker… Every public poll we track for this race, newest first:
| Fielded | Pollster / source | Sample | Ford (D) | Lombardo (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26–Oct 28 | Noble Predictive Insights | 487 LV | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| Oct 20–Oct 25 | Hart Research (D) Partisan | 950 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 |
| Oct 20–Oct 23 | RedBox Research Partisan | 1,470 LV | 45.6 | 42.6 | D+3 |
| Oct 8–Oct 13 | Global Strategy Group Partisan | 700 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| Sep 26–Sep 30 | Concord Public Opinion Partners Partisan | 565 LV | 42 | 43 | R+1 |
| Sep 22–Sep 26 | Noble Predictive Insights | 708 LV | 40 | 42 | R+2 |
| Sep 5–Sep 8 | Emerson College | 680 LV | 44 | 42 | D+2 |
| Jul 25–Jul 29 | Tarrance Group (R) Partisan | LV | 43 | 50 | R+7 |
| Jul 15–Jul 16 | Public Policy Polling (D) Partisan | 558 LV | 44 | 44 | Tie |
| Jun 27–Jun 29 | Public Opinion Strategies (R) Partisan | LV | 42 | 51 | R+9 |
| May 5–May 11 | Global Strategy Group (D) Partisan | 700 LV | 42 | 45 | R+3 |
| Mar 10–Mar 13 | Noble Predictive Insights | 845 RV | 38 | 39 | R+1 |
| Feb 11–Feb 17 | Hart Research (D) Partisan | 800 LV | 43 | 46 | R+3 |
Source notebook
Selected sources for this page; every poll has its own source link in the table above. Reviewed 2026-10-31.
Corrections welcome: corrections@electiontracker.live. Independent coverage; no endorsement.
What to watch on November 3
Nevada polls close at 7 p.m. Pacific (10 p.m. Eastern). Early and mail ballots, which NPI found favored Ford, versus Election Day votes, which favored Lombardo, are the split to watch as results come in.
Reading a race call: preliminary totals are unofficial. Media projections must name the projecting outlet; certification comes from authorized election officials.