Texas Governor 2026
A sourced guide to the Texas governor race between Gina Hinojosa and Greg Abbott: every public poll, the ratings and where official results will appear. This is not an endorsement.
The Texas governor race: history, data and the final week
Abbott, seeking a fourth term, has campaigned on border security, public safety and the economy, while Hinojosa has emphasized public education, affordability and cost of living (CBS Austin, Oct. 25). Hinojosa accepted four TV debate invitations that Abbott did not, and on Oct. 15 she staged a debate at the Governor's Mansion that Abbott did not attend (MultiState; Fox 7 Austin). Nonpartisan polls completed since Sept. 1 have ranged from Hinojosa +4 to Abbott +8 (see poll list), and Abbott has outspent her $281 million to $36.8 million since October 2025 (Texas Tribune).
How this state voted before
Historic vote shares describe previous electorates, not a projection of the 2026 outcome.
Meet the candidates
Gina Hinojosa
State representative for Austin's House District 49 since 2017 and a former Austin ISD school board member (2012-2016). A lawyer who began as a civil rights attorney representing union members, she was born in McAllen and grew up in Brownsville. She won the March 3, 2026 Democratic primary outright with 58.5% in a nine-candidate field.
Greg Abbott
Governor of Texas since 2015 and previously Texas attorney general (2002-2015), seeking a fourth term. He won the March 3, 2026 Republican primary with 81.8%. Serving a full fourth term would make him the longest-serving governor in Texas history, passing Rick Perry.
Also on the ballot: Libertarian Pat Dixon (former chair of the Libertarian Party of Texas); Wikipedia also lists independent Jenn Mack Raphoon
Ratings and money
Cook moved it from Likely R to Lean R on Oct. 1; Inside Elections moved it from Lean R to Tilt R on Oct. 29.
Texas Tribune (Oct. 27): from Sept. 25 to Oct. 24 Abbott raised $26 million and spent $35.8 million, while Hinojosa raised $17.5 million and spent $19.1 million; since Oct. 15, 2025 Abbott has spent $281 million to Hinojosa's $36.8 million. Texas Tribune (Oct. 6, via MultiState): Abbott ended the late-September period with $18.2 million on hand, Hinojosa with $4 million.
Race timeline
Abbott and Hinojosa win their primaries outright
Cook Political Report moves race to Lean R
Hinojosa holds debate at Governor's Mansion; Abbott does not attend
Final pre-election finance reports: Abbott raised $26M, Hinojosa $17.5M
Early voting ends
Election Day
Polls and polling average
Every public poll of Gina Hinojosa vs. Greg Abbott we have tracked since Jan 12: 62 in all, 40 of them from independent pollsters that count toward the average. Updated October 31, 2026. Tap a dot for the poll’s details and source; switch to Margin for the clearest read on a phone. This is published polling, not a forecast.
Loading the interactive poll tracker… Every public poll we track for this race, newest first:
| Fielded | Pollster / source | Sample | Hinojosa (D) | Abbott (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23–Oct 29 | ActiVote Excluded | 400 LV | 47.9 | 52.1 | R+4.2 |
| Oct 26–Oct 28 | Quantus Insights | 1,221 LV | 46 | 51 | R+5 |
| Oct 20–Oct 27 | CNN / SSRS | 923 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 |
| Oct 23–Oct 27 | Data for Progress | 712 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| Oct 21–Oct 26 | YouGov Blue (D) Partisan | 1,000 RV | 49 | 46 | D+3 |
| Oct 21–Oct 25 | Texas Southern University | 2,000 LV | 47 | 50 | R+3 |
| Oct 13–Oct 21 | Univision / YouGov | 1,000 RV | 46 | 48 | R+2 |
| Oct 17–Oct 21 | ActiVote Excluded | 400 LV | 47.5 | 52.5 | R+5 |
| Oct 1–Oct 20 | Verasight / VoteHub | 509 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 |
| Oct 15–Oct 19 | Fox News / Beacon–Shaw | 1,398 LV | 47 | 52 | R+5 |
| Oct 17–Oct 19 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 45 | 49 | R+4 |
| Oct 15–Oct 18 | Texas Public Opinion Research (D) Partisan | 969 LV | 48 | 51 | R+3 |
| Oct 15–Oct 18 | Pollfinity Research Excluded | 278 RV | 45 | 46 | R+1 |
| Oct 8–Oct 16 | CBS News / YouGov Excluded | LV | 48 | 52 | R+4 |
| Sep 30–Oct 14 | ActiVote Excluded | 400 LV | 49.1 | 50.9 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 10–Oct 14 | University of Houston Hobby School | 2,000 LV | 46 | 49 | R+3 |
| Oct 9–Oct 13 | GS Strategy Group (R) / New River Strategies (D) | 934 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 |
| Oct 8–Oct 11 | Marist University | LV | 45 | 49 | R+4 |
| Oct 5–Oct 8 | GBAO (D) Partisan | 800 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 |
| Oct 5–Oct 8 | ReconMR / Siena | 617 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| Sep 25–Oct 5 | University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 49 | 48 | D+1 |
| Sep 28–Oct 5 | YouGov | 3,625 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 |
| Sep 22–Oct 1 | New York Times / Siena | 615 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 |
| Sep 18–Sep 28 | UMass Lowell / YouGov | 850 LV | 44 | 48 | R+4 |
| Sep 20–Sep 28 | Guidant Polling & Strategy (R) Partisan | 800 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 |
| Sep 24–Sep 28 | Fox News / Beacon–Shaw | 881 LV | 47 | 52 | R+5 |
| Sep 24–Sep 26 | Big Data Poll | 698 LV | 44 | 49 | R+5 |
| Sep 22–Sep 24 | Stratus Intelligence (R) Partisan | 865 LV | 45 | 50 | R+5 |
| Sep 19–Sep 22 | Texas Public Opinion Research (D) Partisan | 1,007 LV | 46 | 50 | R+4 |
| Sep 17–Sep 20 | Marist University | 1,139 RV | 49 | 46 | D+3 |
| Sep 15–Sep 19 | Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | 45 | 49 | R+4 |
| Sep 12–Sep 14 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 46 | 49 | R+3 |
| Sep 12–Sep 13 | SoCal Strategies Excluded | 649 LV | 44 | 52 | R+8 |
| Sep 8–Sep 11 | ReconMR / Siena | 614 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 |
| Sep 8–Sep 10 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | 41 | 48 | R+7 |
| Aug 27–Sep 4 | Univision / YouGov | 1,000 RV | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| Aug 30–Sep 1 | Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D) Excluded | 895 LV | 46 | 49 | R+3 |
| Aug 24–Aug 26 | Overton Insights (R) Partisan | 1,167 LV | 49 | 51 | R+2 |
| Aug 21–Aug 24 | Texas Public Opinion Research (D) Partisan | 1,000 LV | 42 | 49 | R+7 |
| Aug 5–Aug 13 | University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 40 | 45 | R+5 |
| Aug 9–Aug 10 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 45 | 49 | R+4 |
| Aug 4–Aug 9 | GBAO (D) Partisan | 1,000 LV | 48 | 49 | R+1 |
| Jul 29–Jul 31 | Cygnal (R) | 800 LV | 46 | 49 | R+3 |
| Jul 27–Jul 30 | Texas Southern University | 1,200 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6 |
| Jul 27–Jul 30 | Texas A&M University / ReconMR / Siena | 619 LV | 45 | 46 | R+1 |
| Jul 23–Jul 27 | Fox News / Beacon–Shaw | 1,006 RV | 49 | 50 | R+1 |
| Jul 15–Jul 17 | Texas Public Opinion Research (D) Partisan | 1,048 LV | 42 | 45 | R+3 |
| Jun 19–Jun 27 | New York Times / Siena | 656 LV | 44 | 51 | R+7 |
| Jun 21 | SoCal Strategies (R) Partisan | 800 LV | 42 | 54 | R+12 |
| Jun 5–Jun 12 | University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 40 | 47 | R+7 |
| Jun 1–Jun 4 | Texas A&M University / ReconMR | 807 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6 |
| Jun 3–Jun 4 | Quantus Insights | 800 LV | 41 | 49 | R+8 |
| May 27–May 28 | Texas Public Opinion Research (D) Partisan | 1,670 LV | 41 | 46 | R+5 |
| May 22–May 23 | Public Policy Polling (D) Partisan | 643 RV | 44 | 48 | R+4 |
| Apr 22–May 5 | Texas Southern University / YouGov | 1,223 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6 |
| Apr 10–Apr 20 | University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 38 | 44 | R+6 |
| Apr 17–Apr 20 | Slingshot Strategies (D) Partisan | 1,018 LV | 43 | 48 | R+5 |
| Feb 13–Feb 22 | UT Tyler | 1,117 RV | 41 | 49 | R+8 |
| Feb 2–Feb 16 | University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 1,300 RV | 35 | 45 | R+10 |
| Jan 26–Feb 3 | GBAO (D) Partisan | 1,000 LV | 43 | 46 | R+3 |
| Jan 20–Jan 31 | University of Houston Hobby School / YouGov | 1,502 LV | 42 | 49 | R+7 |
| Jan 10–Jan 12 | Emerson College | 1,165 RV | 42 | 50 | R+8 |
Source notebook
Selected sources for this page; every poll has its own source link in the table above. Reviewed 2026-10-31.
Corrections welcome: corrections@electiontracker.live. Independent coverage; no endorsement.
What to watch on November 3
Polls close at 7 p.m. local time: 8 p.m. ET in the Central-time bulk of the state and 9 p.m. ET in the Mountain-time El Paso area (270toWin). Early voting ran through Oct. 30, so early-vote tallies will make up a large share of the first results.
Reading a race call: preliminary totals are unofficial. Media projections must name the projecting outlet; certification comes from authorized election officials.