Reporting as of October 22, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring, and Iowa, which Trump carried by 13 points in 2024, has a genuinely competitive open-seat race. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), a former TV news anchor in her third House term, faces state Rep. Josh Turek (D), a Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball.
- Polls: Marist (Oct. 15) had Turek up 48–45 among likely voters; Emerson and CNN had Hinson up two a week earlier.
- Ratings: Cook and Sabato rate it a Toss-Up; Inside Elections says Tilt R.
- Money: The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has committed $33 million.
- Early vote: Voting opened October 14; ABC News found Iowa’s early vote running about 18 points more Democratic than in 2024.
The polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Turek (D) | Hinson (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist (released Oct. 15) | Oct. 8–11 | LV | 48 | 45 |
| CNN (released Oct. 8) | Early Oct. | — | 43 | 45 |
| Emerson | Oct. 5–6 | 650 LV | 45 | 47 |
| NYT/Siena | Sept. 22–Oct. 1 | 606 LV | 47 | 48 |
| Marist | Sept. 17–20 | 1,050 RV | 50 | 42 |
The Marist poll comes with a large margin of error, plus or minus 6.6 points among likely voters, so its three-point Turek lead is well within the noise. Taken together, the October polls describe a race within about two points either way. The same Marist poll had Democrat Rob Sand leading Republican Zach Lahn 52–45 in the governor’s race, and Cook rates that race Lean D.
Ratings and forecasts
| Forecaster | Rating | Last change |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Aug. 20 (from Lean R) |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Sept. 22 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ forecast | Toss-Up | Oct. 22 |
Iowa is one of the few Toss-Ups where prediction markets lean Republican: Kalshi traders gave Turek about a 42% chance on October 22.
The debates
At their first debate (October 7, Iowa PBS), Turek said Hinson’s family wealth had grown 15-fold since she entered Congress; Hinson said the gains came from her husband selling his insurance business in 2021, and said Turek missed 58% of votes in the Iowa House this year. The second and final debate (October 13, WHO 13/Nexstar) was sharper, with clashes over the Iran war, record diesel prices, and corruption. Both opposed a proposed Russia diesel deal.
The money
The Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leadership, has committed $33 million to Iowa, a sign of how seriously Republicans take the threat in a state they have won easily since 2014.
What to watch
Iowa’s polls close at 8 p.m. Central (9 p.m. Eastern). Iowa allows same-day registration at the polls with ID and proof of residence. Watch Polk County (Des Moines) and its fast-growing suburbs, and the eastern counties along the Mississippi River, including Hinson’s home base around Cedar Rapids and Turek’s in Council Bluffs on the western border.
Frequently asked questions
Who is leading the Iowa Senate race?
No one clearly. Marist (Oct. 15) had Turek ahead 48–45; Emerson and CNN had Hinson up two a week earlier.
Why is the Iowa Senate seat open?
Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is not seeking re-election.
Can I still register to vote in Iowa?
Yes, in person: on Election Day at your polling place, or during early voting at the county auditor’s office, with ID and proof of residence.
Iowa is the hardest Toss-Up to read: the polls have traded leads, the markets lean Republican, and the early vote leans Democratic. Republicans’ $33 million commitment says they think it is as close as it looks.
Sources
- Marist Poll: Iowa, October 2026
- Political.org: Hinson and Turek clash in final debate (Oct. 14, 2026)
- Forbes: Hinson ahead in Iowa (Oct. 9, 2026)
- ABC News: Early vote shows Democratic enthusiasm high in key states (Oct. 22, 2026)
- Decision Desk HQ: 2026 Senate forecast (Oct. 22, 2026)
- DeFiRate: 2026 midterm odds snapshot (Oct. 22, 2026)
- Election Tracker Live: 2026 Senate debate tracker