Reporting as of October 22, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D), who won Alaska’s at-large House seat twice before losing it in 2024, is challenging Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), who is seeking a third term. It is the race where the forecasters disagree most: Cook calls it a Toss-Up, Sabato Leans D, and Inside Elections Tilt R.
- Polls: PPP had Peltola ahead 48–47; Rasmussen 44–42. In September, AARP had her up 53–47 after ranked-choice tabulation.
- Primary: Peltola took 49.5% to Sullivan’s 41.4% in the August 18 top-four primary.
- Ballot quirk: November’s ballot lists two Dan Sullivans: the senator and a Petersburg Republican.
- Money: The Senate Leadership Fund committed $17 million for Sullivan; Senate Majority PAC, $12 million for Peltola.
The polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Peltola (D) | Sullivan (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP | Oct. 14–15 | 578 RV | 48 | 47 |
| Rasmussen | Oct. 12–15 | 775 LV | 44 | 42 |
| AARP (first round) | Sept. 8–11 | 800 LV | 46 | 41 |
| AARP (after ranked-choice) | Sept. 8–11 | 800 LV | 53 | 47 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Sept. | — | 48 | 44 |
| Trafalgar | Sept. | — | 46 | 47 |
Alaska is notoriously hard to poll, with a small, dispersed population and many voters off the road system. Treat every single poll here with caution; the consistent signal is that the race is close and Peltola has a small edge.
How ranked-choice voting works here
Alaska’s general election ballot lists the four candidates who finished first through fourth in the August primary. Voters rank as many as they like. If no one wins a majority of first choices, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to their next choice, until someone has a majority. Because the other two candidates on the ballot are Republicans, Daniel J. Sullivan of Petersburg and Gerald Heikes, Sullivan stands to pick up most of their voters’ second choices, which is why the first-round margin matters.
Alaska counts mailed ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive up to 10 days later (15 days for overseas ballots), and the ranked-choice tabulation is not run until they are in. Expect a final result around November 18, not on election night.
Ratings and forecasts
| Forecaster | Rating | Last change |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | 2026 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Leans D | Oct. 6 (from Toss-Up) |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ forecast | Lean D | Oct. 22 |
Prediction markets are more confident than the forecasters: Kalshi priced Peltola’s chances at about 76% on October 22, the highest of any Republican-held Toss-Up.
The debates
The two debated three times: on energy (August 27), on fisheries in Kodiak (September 12), and in the “Debate for the State” on Alaska Public Media and Alaska’s News Source (October 15), their last meeting before Election Day.
Frequently asked questions
Who is leading the Alaska Senate race?
Mary Peltola, narrowly. PPP (Oct. 14–15) had her ahead 48–47 and Rasmussen 44–42.
When will Alaska’s Senate result be known?
Probably not until the ranked-choice tabulation after absentee ballots arrive, around November 18, unless one candidate wins an outright majority of first choices.
Why are there two Dan Sullivans on the ballot?
A Petersburg Republican named Daniel J. Sullivan finished third in the August top-four primary, so he appears on the November ballot alongside the senator.
Peltola has led most recent polls, the markets like her chances, and Alaska has elected her statewide twice before. But Sullivan should gain from the other two Republicans’ second choices, and Alaska’s polling is thin. Expect a close count and a late call.
Sources
- Newsweek: Peltola pulling ahead in the final stretch (Oct. 20, 2026)
- Alaska’s News Source: Debate for the State (Oct. 15, 2026)
- Alaska Division of Elections
- Decision Desk HQ: 2026 Senate forecast (Oct. 22, 2026)
- DeFiRate: 2026 midterm odds snapshot (Oct. 22, 2026)
- Election Tracker Live: 2026 Senate debate tracker