Iowa’s June 2 primaries set the stage for two of the most consequential races in the Midwest. In the Senate race, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) cruised to the GOP nomination, while Paralympian state Rep. Josh Turek (D) upset state Sen. Zach Wahls, 62.6% to 37.4%. In the governor’s race, Zach Lahn (R) edged Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra by less than a single point — one of the night’s biggest upsets.
Both races are competitive. And both will be shaped by the same underlying force: the tariff-driven collapse of Iowa’s agricultural economy.
Senate: Hinson vs. Turek
This race became an open seat when Sen. Joni Ernst announced she wouldn’t seek re-election — a retirement that prompted Inside Elections to move the race from Likely R to Lean R. Hinson, who gives up her House seat (IA-02) to run, is a strong candidate with high name recognition and party support. Turek, a first-term state representative who is also a Paralympic sprinter, is one of the most unconventional nominees of the cycle.
Turek defeated Wahls — the better-known candidate and scion of a prominent Iowa Democratic family — by running as a fresh face in a change election. His story (combat veteran’s son, athlete, disability advocate) gives Democrats a compelling messenger for a state where the party has struggled.
Governor: Sand vs. Lahn
Cook Political Report moved the governor’s race from Lean R to Toss-Up in April, calling it “officially a barnburner.” Democratic Auditor Rob Sand has built genuine crossover appeal through his anti-fraud work and has out-raised every Republican. Zach Lahn’s upset of Trump-endorsed Feenstra suggests that even Iowa Republicans are restive.
Iowa hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Chet Culver in 2006. But Sand isn’t a conventional Democrat. He’s a rural Iowan who wins by talking about government waste and accountability rather than national progressive priorities — exactly the kind of candidate who can exploit a tariff-battered economy.
The Tariff Factor
Iowa’s economy shrank in early 2025 as Trump’s tariffs hammered agricultural exports. Soybean and pork producers — Iowa’s economic backbone — have seen their markets disrupted by retaliatory tariffs from China and other trading partners. The state’s agricultural sector has shed jobs, and rural communities are feeling the pain.
This is the backdrop for both races. Hinson will try to distance herself from the tariffs while maintaining Trump’s base support. Turek will run on economic populism and the war. Sand will talk about kitchen-table economics. Lahn, the surprise GOP nominee, is an unknown quantity who may struggle to consolidate a party still processing Feenstra’s loss.
Iowa was once reliably competitive. Then it swung hard right. In 2026, it may be swinging back — and both of these races could be decided by single digits.