The Governor’s Races in the Final Stretch: Democrats Eye a Majority

Reporting as of October 22, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3

Republicans hold 26 governorships and Democrats 24. Thirty-six are on the ballot this year, 18 held by each party. A net gain of two would give Democrats a majority of the nation’s governors for the first time since 2010.

October rating changes

• Oct. 1 · CookFlorida and Texas from Likely R to Lean R.
• Oct. 13 · CookAlaska from Toss-Up to Lean D; Nebraska, Oklahoma and Vermont from Solid R to Likely R.
• Oct. 20 · Inside ElectionsNebraska and Vermont from Solid R to Likely R; Texas from Likely R to Lean R.
• Oct. 22 · SabatoOhio from Toss-Up to Leans D; Michigan from Leans D to Likely D; Alabama and Oklahoma from Safe R to Likely R.

The Toss-Ups

Georgia (open): Rick Jackson (R) vs. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)

Toss-Up: Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections

The AJC/University of Georgia poll (Oct. 7–15, 1,000 likely voters) has Jackson at 46% and Bottoms at 45%, with 8% undecided. Bottoms leads independents 43–38, and 68% of Democrats called themselves very enthusiastic, compared with 48% of Republicans. InsiderAdvantage (Oct. 12–13, 800 LV) had Jackson up 49–47. Jackson, a health care executive, spent at least $108 million of his own money to win the nomination. He skipped a Georgia Public Broadcasting debate in mid-October to campaign with Gov. Brian Kemp.

Nevada: Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) vs. Aaron Ford (D)

Toss-Up: Cook, Sabato

Noble Predictive Insights (released Oct. 6, likely voters) had Lombardo ahead 42–40, with independent Danielle Ford at 7%. Emerson’s September poll had Ford ahead 44–42. The two are unlikely to debate: Lombardo skipped a KUNR debate, and Ford has declined some invitations, according to The Nevada Independent.

Wisconsin (open): David Crowley (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R)

Toss-Up: Cook Leans D: Sabato

Marquette Law School (Sept. 16–23, 692 LV) had Crowley ahead 49–46. A YouGov poll released October 16 had him up 46–42 among registered voters. The candidates met in their only debate on October 21, hosted by WISN at Marquette, clashing over taxes, school vouchers and Trump. The AP reported that Tiffany has distanced himself from Trump on the Iran war and data centers, and is outspending Crowley.

Ohio (open): Vivek Ramaswamy (R) vs. Amy Acton (D)

Toss-Up: Cook Leans D: Sabato

Acton led Marist (Oct. 15–18) 50–43 among likely voters and Fox News (Oct. 15–19) 50–48, both taken before Ramaswamy’s campaign confirmed a $4 million ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother. Gov. Mike DeWine called the ad “deeply, deeply troubling” and asked for it to come down; Trump said to keep it running. Full story.

Leaning Democratic

Alaska is the likeliest Republican-held governorship to flip, according to Cook, which moved it to Lean D on October 13. With three Republicans splitting the vote, Trump endorsed Wilson on October 13 and urged Bronson and Taylor to drop out; both refused. Kreiss-Tomkins reported raising $2.1 million, more than double the Republicans’ combined total. Iowa, where Gov. Kim Reynolds is not running, is Cook’s other likeliest flip; Sand has led every recent poll. In Michigan, Benson attacked James over his stock holdings in data-center companies at their final debate on October 15. In Arizona, Hobbs skipped the October 6 Clean Elections debate, and Biggs proposed phasing out the state income tax.

Leaning Republican

Kansas is Democrats’ most vulnerable seat: Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited, and Masterson, the Trump-endorsed state Senate president, has led every recent poll. Florida’s polls disagree sharply: UNF had Donalds up two, while co/efficient (also released Oct. 21) had him up nine. In Texas, Abbott did not answer an October 15 debate invitation, and Hinojosa staged her own “debate” outside the Governor’s Mansion.

Also on the ballot

Minnesota (open): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) led Lisa Demuth (R) 50–41 in the Star Tribune Minnesota Poll; they debated in Rochester on October 21. New Hampshire: Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) leads Cinde Warmington (D) in every recent poll. Pennsylvania, New York and California are rated Solid or Safe D. Vermont’s Phil Scott (R) and Nebraska and Oklahoma are rated Likely R after October moves.

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