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Wisconsin Governor · Toss-Up (Cook)

Crowley vs. Tiffany: Wisconsin’s Open Governor’s Race, Explained

The first Wisconsin governor’s race since 2010 without an incumbent, in a state decided by less than a point in 2024. The winner will sign or veto everything a divided Legislature sends over for the next four years.

Published October 12, 2026·4 min read·Governors·Election Day is November 3

Gov. Tony Evers (D) announced in July 2025 that he would not seek a third term, opening Wisconsin’s governorship for the first time since 2010. The nominees were set on August 11: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) and Rep. Tom Tiffany (R), who represents the 7th Congressional District in the state’s north.

Cook Political Report rates the race a Toss-Up, one of five governor’s races in that column as of its October 1 ratings. Here is what to know.

Key takeaways
  • Open seat: Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not running; it is Wisconsin’s first governor’s race without an incumbent since 2010.
  • David Crowley (D), Milwaukee County executive since 2020, won his primary by about 0.4 points over Francesca Hong.
  • Tom Tiffany (R), in Congress since 2020 and endorsed by Trump, won the GOP primary with about 95%.
  • Cook rates it a Toss-Up; Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated it Lean D as of Aug. 12. Marquette’s late-August poll had Crowley ahead 49–44 among likely voters.
  • Wisconsin allows a recount petition if the margin is within 1% (with more than 4,000 votes cast), free of charge within 0.25%.

The candidates and running mates

David Crowley (D)

Milwaukee Co. executive

Elected Milwaukee County executive in 2020. His path to the nomination was unusual: he left the race on July 8, re-entered on July 18, and won the August 11 primary by about 3,200 votes over state Rep. Francesca Hong, 39.8% to 39.4%. Polls a week earlier had shown Hong well ahead. Evers endorsed him. His running mate is Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski.

Tom Tiffany (R)

U.S. Rep., WI-07

Has represented the 7th District since 2020 and is a member of the House Freedom Caucus. Endorsed by President Trump, he won the Republican primary with about 95%. His running mate is David Varnam, who won a contested lieutenant governor primary.

Crowley would be Wisconsin’s first Black governor. Tiffany would give Republicans the governorship for the first time since Scott Walker left office in January 2019.

Ratings and polls

ForecasterRatingAs of
Cook Political ReportToss-UpOct. 1, 2026
Inside ElectionsToss-UpRated since 2025
Sabato’s Crystal BallLean DAug. 12, 2026
PollsterDatesCrowleyTiffany
Marquette Law School (LV)Aug. 12–204944
TIPP Insights (LV)Aug. 14–184743
Platform Communications (LV)Aug. 12–134844
Thin, dated polling

All of these polls were taken in August, right after the primary. We have not found a more recent public poll. Trump carried Wisconsin by under a point in 2024, and the state’s statewide races are routinely decided by narrow margins.

What the governor controls

Wisconsin’s governor has one of the strongest veto pens in the country, including a partial veto over appropriations bills. That matters because Republicans have controlled the Legislature throughout Evers’s tenure, and both parties see the governorship as the main check on the other branch. The governor also signs or vetoes redistricting plans and appoints to vacancies across state government. We cover why these offices have become national stakes in statehouses as the midterms’ second battlefield.

One thing the governor does not run is elections: Wisconsin’s are administered by the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission and local clerks.

Voting and recounts in Wisconsin

Recount rules (Wis. Stat. § 9.01)

Wisconsin has no automatic recount. In a race with more than 4,000 votes cast, a trailing candidate may petition for a recount if they are within 1% of the total votes cast for the office. There is no fee if the margin is 0.25% or less. The petition is due by 5 p.m. on the third business day after the last meeting of the relevant board of canvassers.

See all of this year’s competitive governorships in the nine governor’s races that will define 2026, and follow results on the governors dashboard.

Frequently asked questions

Who is running for Wisconsin governor in 2026?

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D), with running mate Sarah Godlewski, and Rep. Tom Tiffany (R), with running mate David Varnam. Gov. Tony Evers is not seeking a third term.

What is the Cook rating for the Wisconsin governor’s race?

Toss-Up, as of Cook’s Oct. 1, 2026, governor ratings.

How close was the Wisconsin Democratic primary?

Very close. Crowley beat Francesca Hong by about 3,200 votes, 39.8% to 39.4%, on Aug. 11.

Can you register to vote on Election Day in Wisconsin?

Yes, at your polling place with proof of residence. You can also register in person at your municipal clerk’s office until 5 p.m. Oct. 30.

Does Wisconsin have automatic recounts?

No. A trailing candidate may petition for one if within 1% (when more than 4,000 votes are cast), and pays no fee if the margin is 0.25% or less.

Bottom line

Wisconsin’s governor’s race pairs a narrow primary winner against a Trump-endorsed congressman in a state that has split nearly evenly for a decade. With only August polling to go on, the honest description is the one Cook uses: Toss-Up.

Sources

  1. Cook Political Report: 2026 governor race ratings
  2. Wisconsin State Legislature: Wis. Stat. § 9.01, Recount
  3. MyVote Wisconsin: Voter deadlines
  4. NCSL: Table 11, Receipt and postmark deadlines for absentee/mail ballots