The Nine Governor’s Races That Will Define 2026
Thirty-six governorships are on the ballot, and the balance of power is 26 Republicans to 24 Democrats. Cook Political Report rates five races as Toss-Ups and four more as Lean D. Here is each one, with the September polling.
Governor’s races get less national attention than the fight for Congress, but they decide who signs or vetoes redistricting maps, who certifies elections in presidential battlegrounds, and which party enters 2028 with a bench. Six of the seven 2024 presidential battleground states elect governors this year. Nationally, Republicans hold 26 governorships and Democrats 24.
Cook Political Report’s September ratings put five races at Toss-Up and four more at Lean D. Only one race, Kansas, is rated Lean R. Here are the nine that will define the night.
| State | Matchup | Cook | Seat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | Crowley (D) vs. Tiffany (R) | Toss-Up | Open, D-held |
| Georgia | Bottoms (D) vs. Rick Jackson (R) | Toss-Up | Open, R-held |
| Nevada | Ford (D) vs. Gov. Lombardo (R) | Toss-Up | R incumbent |
| Ohio | Acton (D) vs. Ramaswamy (R) | Toss-Up | Open, R-held |
| Alaska | Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs. three Republicans | Toss-Up | Open, R-held |
| Michigan | Benson (D) vs. James (R) | Lean D | Open, D-held |
| Iowa | Sand (D) vs. Lahn (R) | Lean D | Open, R-held |
| Arizona | Gov. Hobbs (D) vs. Biggs (R) | Lean D | D incumbent |
| Oregon | Gov. Kotek (D) vs. Drazan (R) | Lean D | D incumbent |
The Toss-Ups
Wisconsin · David Crowley (D) vs. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R)
Gov. Tony Evers is not seeking a third term. Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, won one of the closest primaries of the cycle, by about 3,200 votes (0.4 points), over democratic socialist Francesca Hong. Tiffany, a Trump-endorsed congressman from the rural north, won the Republican nomination. Marquette Law School’s late-August poll had Crowley ahead 49–44; we have not found a more recent public poll. Trump carried Wisconsin by under a point in 2024. Crowley would be the state’s first Black governor.
Georgia · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) vs. Rick Jackson (R)
Gov. Brian Kemp is term-limited. Jackson, a billionaire health care executive, upset Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the June runoff. September polling has him narrowly ahead of the former Atlanta mayor, even as Democrat Jon Ossoff leads the Senate race on the same ballot by eight to ten points. That gap between the two races is Georgia’s ticket-splitting story.
Nevada · Aaron Ford (D) vs. Gov. Joe Lombardo (R)
Lombardo is one of the few Republican governors on the ballot in a battleground state. Attorney General Ford led him 44–42 in Emerson’s September 5–8 poll of 680 likely voters. Ford would be Nevada’s first Black governor.
Ohio · Amy Acton (D) vs. Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
Gov. Mike DeWine is term-limited. Two polls released September 29 both had Acton, the state’s former health director, ahead of Ramaswamy, who is endorsed by Trump and Vice President Vance. That is notable in a state Trump carried by 11 points. The race shares a ballot with the most expensive Senate race in the country.
Alaska · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs. Wilson, Bronson and Taylor (R)
The fastest-moving race on the board. Gov. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited. After Democrat Tom Begich withdrew to consolidate his party’s vote, the ranked-choice general pits one Democrat against three Republicans. AARP’s September poll had Kreiss-Tomkins at 40% in the first round and ahead 55–45 after ranked-choice tabulation. The full breakdown is in Alaska’s ranked-choice math.
Leaning Democratic
Michigan · Jocelyn Benson (D) vs. Rep. John James (R)
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited. Early in the year this looked like a three-way race. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan ended his independent campaign on May 21, and it is now a two-way contest. Secretary of State Benson led both September polls: Washington Post-Schar 53–41 (803 likely voters) and Siena 48–43 (605 likely voters).
Iowa · Rob Sand (D) vs. Zach Lahn (R)
Gov. Kim Reynolds is not running. Iowa last elected a Democratic governor in 2006, yet State Auditor Rob Sand leads both public polls: Marist had him ahead 54–42 among registered voters and Cygnal 48–44 among likely voters. Lahn edged Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra by under a point in the June primary.
Arizona · Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) vs. Rep. Andy Biggs (R)
Hobbs led Biggs 50–34 in HighGround’s August poll of 400 likely voters, a large margin from a small sample. We have not found a more recent public poll. Biggs won the July primary with about 74%. Arizona’s registration deadline is October 5, and early voting begins October 7.
Oregon · Gov. Tina Kotek (D) vs. Christine Drazan (R)
The one race on this list that moved toward Republicans in September. It is a rematch of 2022, when Kotek won by about 3.5 points in a three-way race. Cook shifted it toward the GOP on September 10. We have not found a recent public poll.
On the watch list
Florida (open): Rep. Byron Donalds (R) vs. David Jolly (D). Cook still says Likely R, but Sabato and Inside Elections both moved it to Lean R on September 22. Polls diverge: Stetson had Donalds up 51–39 and St. Pete Polls had him up 44–43.
Kansas (open): Ty Masterson (R) vs. Cindy Holscher (D), Lean R. Masterson led Emerson 51–44 and Wedgewood 52–48.
Texas: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) vs. state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D). Cook says Likely R, but Marist’s September poll of registered voters had Hinojosa ahead 49–46, and Sabato moved the race to Leans R on September 22.
Other races worth knowing: In Maine, Hannah Pingree (D) led Bobby Charles (R) 48–40 with independent Rick Bennett at 5 in UNH’s poll. In Minnesota, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) led House Speaker Lisa Demuth 47–40 (SurveyUSA). In New Hampshire, Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) is rated Likely R. In Rhode Island, Helena Foulkes, who just ousted Gov. Dan McKee, faces Republican Aaron Guckian and three independents.
Sources
- Cook Political Report: governor race ratings
- Cook Political Report: Alaska governor moves to Toss-Up (Sept. 17)
- Cook Political Report: Oregon governor shifts toward GOP (Sept. 10)
- Newsweek: Sabato shifts races toward Democrats (Sept. 4)
- Emerson College Polling: Nevada (Sept. 2026)
- Marist Poll: Texas, September 2026
- Michigan Public: Duggan ends campaign (May 21)