Our final Senate calls: Democrats reach 54

Open seat with Joni Ernst retiring. The two major averages disagree on who leads (RealClearPolling: Hinson +0.6; Silver Bulletin: Turek +1.2), and the last three polls split two to one for Hinson by 2 points each. Markets lean Hinson at about 54%, and Sabato has said it will likely make Republicans favorites when it clears its toss-ups.

Editor's call. Our formula scores this race +0.30, a hair toward Ashley Hinson. That margin is smaller than the disagreement between the polling averages, so our editors made the call on the freshest data instead. Treat it as a coin flip.

Our formula leans Roger Marshall by the thinnest margin on the board. RealClearPolling's average (Marshall +0.3) stops at Oct. 14 and misses CNN's Oct. 29 poll (Hamilton 49, Marshall 45). Silver Bulletin's average has Hamilton ahead by 1.1. Markets still lean Marshall at about 57%.

Editor's call. Our formula scores this race +0.34, a hair toward Roger Marshall. That margin is smaller than the disagreement between the polling averages, so our editors made the call on the freshest data instead. Treat it as a coin flip.

Susan Collins faces Troy Jackson, who became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner withdrew in July. Jackson leads the average by 1.4, and all three raters call it a Toss Up. Sabato names Maine and Texas as the likeliest deciders of Senate control.

A ranked-choice race. Mary Peltola leads the average by 0.8. Sabato rates it Lean D; Cook and Inside Elections have it at Toss Up.

Ken Paxton won the GOP nomination by beating John Cornyn in the May runoff. James Talarico leads the average by 2.1, and all three raters call it a Toss Up. Early voting through Oct. 26 ran 74% ahead of the same point in 2022, and ad spending passed $490 million by Oct. 12.

A special election for the rest of JD Vance's term. Sherrod Brown leads the average by 3.3 and outraised Jon Husted $23.1 million to $4.8 million in the third quarter. All three raters still list it as a Toss Up.

Open seat with Gary Peters retiring. Abdul El-Sayed leads the RealClearPolling average by 1.9, but that average ends Oct. 22 and leaves out three later polls showing him ahead by 6 to 7. Raters split: Cook Toss Up, Sabato Lean D, Inside Elections Tilt D.

Open seat with Tina Smith retiring. This is the one Senate race that moved toward Republicans this month: all three raters shifted from Likely D to Lean D. Peggy Flanagan still leads the average by 5.1.

Open seat with Jeanne Shaheen retiring. All three raters moved toward Democrats in October, and Chris Pappas leads the average by 6.7.

Jon Ossoff leads the polling average by 8.2. Cook and Sabato rate the race Likely D and Inside Elections Lean D. Markets price a Republican win at roughly 4%.

Open seat after Thom Tillis retired. Roy Cooper leads the RealClearPolling average by 10.3 points, Cook and Sabato rate it Likely D, and Sabato notes a Democratic pickup here is assumed in most paths to a Democratic majority.