Final Call · Published October 30, 2026 · Data as of October 29, 2026

Our final governor calls: seven races, five flips

Thirty-six governorships are on the ballot. These seven are the closest by the forecasters' own ratings. Here is our call in each.

Governors today

26–24

Republicans vs. Democrats; each party defends 18 of the 36 seats up

Our 7 calls

5–2

Democrats vs. Republicans in the closest races

Pickups we call

4 / 1

Democratic / Republican pickups among these seven

Most of these are open seats, which is part of why they're close: Georgia, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas and Wisconsin all lose a term-limited or retiring governor. Nevada's Joe Lombardo and Texas's Greg Abbott are the two incumbents on the list.

Six other races drew a Lean or Tilt rating from at least one forecaster and narrowly missed this list: Oregon, Iowa, Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Nebraska. Our dashboard tracks all of them.

How we make the call

Every race goes through the same formula, so no race gets special treatment. We put three independent signals on the same scale, from −3 (strongly Democratic) to +3 (strongly Republican), and average them:

Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections: Safe 3, Likely 2, Lean 1, Tilt 0.5, Toss Up 0.
Polling average: the leader's margin divided by 2, capped at 3. Where no average exists we use nonpartisan public polls only; party and campaign polls are excluded.
Prediction markets: the average of Kalshi and Polymarket, with the gap from 50% divided by 10, capped at 3.

The sign of the average is the call. Its size sets the confidence: 2 or more is Strong, 1 or more Likely, 0.4 or more Lean, anything closer Toss-up. When our editors override the formula, the race card says so and shows what the formula said.

The 7 races, closest first

Georgia

Open seat (Brian Kemp, R, term-limited)

Rick Jackson R vs Keisha Lance Bottoms D

Our callKeisha Lance Bottoms (D) Toss-up

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Toss Up · Inside: Toss Up

Polling

Jackson +1.2 · RealClearPolling average

Markets

D 62% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

Open seat with Brian Kemp term-limited. Rick Jackson leads the polling average by 1.2, but markets favor Keisha Lance Bottoms at about 62%, which tips the formula. Georgia requires a majority, so a Dec. 1 runoff is likely if neither tops 50%.

Nevada

Joe Lombardo (R)

Joe Lombardo R vs Aaron Ford D

Our callAaron Ford (D) Lean

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Toss Up · Inside: Tilt R

Polling

Tied · RealClearPolling average

Markets

D 78% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

Joe Lombardo is the incumbent. The polling average is just two September polls, tied at 42; most newer polls come from Democratic-aligned sponsors. Markets favor Aaron Ford at roughly 78%, which is the main reason for this call.

Texas

Greg Abbott (R)

Greg Abbott R vs Gina Hinojosa D

Our callGreg Abbott (R) Likely

Ratings

Cook: Lean R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside: Lean R

Polling

Abbott +3.2 · RealClearPolling average

Markets

R 63% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

Greg Abbott leads every one of the nine polls in the RealClearPolling average, by 1 to 5 points. All three raters moved the race to Lean R this fall.

Wisconsin

Open seat (Tony Evers, D, not seeking re-election)

David Crowley D vs Tom Tiffany R

Our callDavid Crowley (D) Likely

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Lean D · Inside: Toss Up

Polling

Crowley +3.5 · RealClearPolling average

Markets

D 84% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

Open seat with Tony Evers not running. David Crowley leads the average by 3.5, an average that doesn't yet include Marquette's final poll. Republicans hold the edge in ad reservations, more than $50 million of the $82.5 million booked.

Kansas

Open seat (Laura Kelly, D, term-limited)

Ty Masterson R vs Cindy Holscher D

Our callTy Masterson (R) Likely

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Lean R · Inside: Tilt R

Polling

Masterson +5.7 · RealClearPolling average

Markets

R 71% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

Open seat with Laura Kelly term-limited, so this call is a Republican pickup. Ty Masterson leads the average by 5.7, though that average ends Oct. 4, and Cook moved the race to Toss Up on Oct. 27.

Ohio

Open seat (Mike DeWine, R, term-limited)

Vivek Ramaswamy R vs Amy Acton D

Our callAmy Acton (D) Likely

Ratings

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside: Toss Up

Polling

Acton +4.3 · RealClearPolling average

Markets

D 81% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

Open seat with Mike DeWine term-limited. Amy Acton leads the average by 4.3, and Sabato and Cook both moved the race to Lean D. The main caution: Sabato notes Ohio polls understated Republicans by about 6 points in 2018.

Alaska

Open seat (Mike Dunleavy, R, term-limited)

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins D vs Bernadette Wilson R vs Dave Bronson R

Our callJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) Strong

Ratings

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside: Toss Up

Polling

Kreiss-Tomkins +6.5 · RealClearPolling average, final RCV round

Markets

D 87% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

Open seat with Mike Dunleavy term-limited. In the final ranked-choice round of the RealClearPolling average, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads Bernadette Wilson 53.3 to 46.8. President Trump endorsed Wilson on Oct. 13; Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor stayed on the ballot.

Georgia requires a majority to win. With both candidates polling below 50%, a December 1 runoff is a real possibility, which would push this call past Election Night.

Sources (checked October 29, 2026)

← Back to Election Tracker

The 7 races, closest first

Georgia

Nevada

Texas

Wisconsin

Kansas

Ohio

Alaska

Sources (checked October 29, 2026)

The Final Calls