Final Call · Published October 30, 2026 · Data as of October 29, 2026

Our final House call: Democrats take control

Every signal we track points the same way on the House. The district races are closer, and the eight below are the toss-ups we'll watch first.

Generic ballot

D+8.2

RealClearPolling average; Silver Bulletin has D+8.7

Markets: D control

92%

Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 93%

DDHQ model

79%

Decision Desk HQ, about 238 Democratic seats (2026-10-26)

Our call: Democrats win the House. Republicans hold 218 seats to Democrats' 214, with one independent and two vacancies, and 218 is a majority. A generic-ballot lead above 8 points, market odds above 90% and every published model we checked all favor a Democratic majority.

The district picture is murkier. Mid-decade redistricting redrew maps in nine states (Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah), and several of the races below are on brand-new lines. We picked eight Cook Political Report toss-ups, four held by each party, favoring districts with public polling. In our picks Democrats flip 4 Republican seats and hold 4 of their own.

A caution on these eight. District polling is thin, and in all eight races the three forecasters rate the race close to even. The prediction markets are what push most of these calls toward one side. Two races, NC-01 and OH-09, have no nonpartisan polling at all.

How we make the call

Every race goes through the same formula, so no race gets special treatment. We put three independent signals on the same scale, from −3 (strongly Democratic) to +3 (strongly Republican), and average them:

Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections: Safe 3, Likely 2, Lean 1, Tilt 0.5, Toss Up 0.
Polling average: the leader's margin divided by 2, capped at 3. Where no average exists we use nonpartisan public polls only; party and campaign polls are excluded.
Prediction markets: the average of Kalshi and Polymarket, with the gap from 50% divided by 10, capped at 3.

The sign of the average is the call. Its size sets the confidence: 2 or more is Strong, 1 or more Likely, 0.4 or more Lean, anything closer Toss-up. When our editors override the formula, the race card says so and shows what the formula said.

The 8 toss-ups, closest first

TX-35

Open seat

Johnny Garcia D vs Carlos De La Cruz R

Our callJohnny Garcia (D) Lean

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Toss Up · Inside: Lean R

Polling

D +0.5 · avg. of nonpartisan district polls

Markets

D 69% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

A new seat under Texas's 2025 map (Cook PVI R+4). The two nonpartisan October polls split: Washington Post/Schar had Carlos De La Cruz up 1, Emerson had Johnny Garcia up 2. Markets give Garcia about 69%.

NY-17

Incumbent: Mike Lawler (R)

Cait Conley D vs Mike Lawler R

Our callCait Conley (D) Lean

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Toss Up · Inside: Toss Up

Polling

D +2 · avg. of nonpartisan district polls

Markets

D 61% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

No map change. The one nonpartisan poll, Emerson in late September, had Cait Conley up 48–46. Mike Lawler has outraised her $10 million to $4.3 million. Markets give Conley about 61%.

OH-09

Incumbent: Marcy Kaptur (D)

Marcy Kaptur D vs Derek Merrin R

Our callMarcy Kaptur (D) Likely

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Toss Up · Inside: Toss Up

Polling

No nonpartisan polling

Markets

D 76% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

Ohio's new map made this a Trump +10.6 seat. Marcy Kaptur beat Derek Merrin by fewer than 2,400 votes in 2024 on the old lines. There is no nonpartisan polling, and the partisan polls we excluded show Merrin slightly ahead. Markets give Kaptur about 76%.

FL-14

Incumbent: Kathy Castor (D)

Kathy Castor D vs Mike Beltran R

Our callKathy Castor (D) Likely

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Toss Up · Inside: Toss Up

Polling

D +5 · avg. of nonpartisan district polls

Markets

D 67% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

Florida's 2026 map moved this seat from Harris +8 to Trump +11. One Emerson poll (315 likely voters) had Kathy Castor ahead 48–43. Markets give her about 68%.

NC-01

Incumbent: Don Davis (D)

Don Davis D vs Laurie Buckhout R

Our callDon Davis (D) Likely

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Lean D · Inside: Toss Up

Polling

No nonpartisan polling

Markets

D 82% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

Redrawn by North Carolina's legislature in 2025 to lean more Republican; Cook called Don Davis the most vulnerable House Democrat after the redraw. There is no nonpartisan polling, so this call rests on ratings and markets (about 82% Davis).

MI-07

Incumbent: Tom Barrett (R)

William Lawrence D vs Tom Barrett R

Our callWilliam Lawrence (D) Likely

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Toss Up · Inside: Toss Up

Polling

D +8 · avg. of nonpartisan district polls

Markets

D 74% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

The only nonpartisan poll, Emerson (314 likely voters), had William Lawrence up 8. Tom Barrett has outraised him $7.9 million to $1.1 million. Markets give Lawrence about 73%.

PA-08

Incumbent: Rob Bresnahan (R)

Paige Cognetti D vs Rob Bresnahan R

Our callPaige Cognetti (D) Likely

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Lean D · Inside: Tilt D

Polling

D +4.5 · avg. of nonpartisan district polls

Markets

D 86% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

No map change. The NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll had Paige Cognetti ahead 51–46 and Emerson had her up 52–48. Markets give her about 87%.

TX-15

Incumbent: Monica De La Cruz (R)

Bobby Pulido D vs Monica De La Cruz R

Our callBobby Pulido (D) Strong

Ratings

Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Lean D · Inside: Toss Up

Polling

D +6 · avg. of nonpartisan district polls

Markets

D 84% · Kalshi/Polymarket avg.

Redrawn under Texas's 2025 map into a district Trump carried by 18. Texas Southern University's Oct. 13–16 poll had Bobby Pulido ahead 51–44, and markets put him near 85%.

Sources (checked October 29, 2026)

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The 8 toss-ups, closest first

TX-35

NY-17

OH-09

FL-14

NC-01

MI-07

PA-08

TX-15

Sources (checked October 29, 2026)

The Final Calls