Six years after he won a Senate seat in a January runoff, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is on the ballot again, this time against Rep. Mike Collins (R), who represents Georgia’s 10th Congressional District. Collins emerged from a crowded Republican field in two rounds: he led the May 19 primary without a majority, then beat former college football coach Derek Dooley 55.5% to 44.5% in the June 16 runoff.
Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Democrat, having moved it from Lean D on September 23. Here is the state of play three weeks out, and how Georgia’s unusual majority rule shapes it.
- Jon Ossoff (D) is seeking a second term; Mike Collins (R) is the U.S. representative for GA-10.
- Collins won the GOP nomination in a June 16 runoff over Derek Dooley, 55.5% to 44.5%. Gov. Brian Kemp endorsed him on Sept. 14.
- Cook rates the race Likely D (since Sept. 23); Sabato’s Crystal Ball also has it Likely D, and Inside Elections Tilt D.
- The candidates debated Oct. 8 and meet again Oct. 13 at the Atlanta Press Club, the day early voting opens.
- Georgia requires a majority to win. If no one tops 50%, a runoff would be held Dec. 1.
How we got here
Ossoff ran unopposed in the May 19 Democratic primary. The Republican side was a three-way contest among Collins, Dooley and Rep. Buddy Carter. Collins finished first with about 40%, short of the majority Georgia requires, and won the runoff after President Trump endorsed him following the first round. On September 14, Gov. Brian Kemp endorsed Collins as well.
Ossoff first won in the 2020–21 cycle, when both of Georgia’s Senate seats went to January runoffs. His is one of two Democratic-held Senate seats on the 2026 ballot in states Trump won in 2024; the other, Michigan, is open.
Ratings
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely D | Sept. 23, 2026 (from Lean D); unchanged Oct. 6 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Likely D | Sept. 22, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | Sept. 17, 2026 |
What the polls show
| Pollster | Dates | Ossoff | Collins |
|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (LV) | Sept. 22–23 | 50 | 42 |
| Quantus Insights (LV) | Sept. 14–16 | 48 | 44 |
| Trafalgar Group (LV) | Sept. 10–12 | 49 | 43 |
Note what those numbers say about the majority rule: Ossoff is at or near 50% in each poll, not comfortably above it. In a two-candidate race that is not a problem, but any votes for other candidates or write-ins make the 50% line harder to clear. More on that below.
The debates
The candidates met for the first time on October 8. The AJC described Ossoff treating the hour as a “trial of Mike Collins,” pressing him on an ethics investigation and his support for the president’s agenda. Collins attacked Ossoff as a career politician aligned with the party’s left and defended the tariffs and the Iran war. They clashed over Medicaid cuts and rural hospitals, voter ID and immigration, including the Laken Riley Act, which Collins helped write. Our debate tracker has the full recap. The second debate, in the Atlanta Press Club’s Loudermilk-Young series, is October 13.
The governor’s race on the same ballot
Georgia’s open governor’s race, between Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, is rated a Toss-Up by Cook. September polls had Jackson narrowly ahead even as Ossoff led the Senate race, which makes ticket-splitting the state’s big story. We cover that contest in the nine governor’s races that will define 2026.
If nobody reaches 50%
Georgia is one of the few states that requires a majority, not just the most votes, to win a general election. If no candidate tops 50%, the top two advance to a runoff four weeks later: Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2026. That is how the 2022 Senate race went to overtime, when Sen. Raphael Warnock took 49.4% on Election Day with a Libertarian on the ballot, then won the runoff.
We explain the rule and its timeline in detail in our upcoming guide to Georgia’s runoff system. Georgia also allows a losing candidate to request a recount if the margin is no more than 0.5% of the votes cast for the office, within two business days after certification.
Voting in Georgia
- Early in-person voting runs Oct. 13–30, with required Saturday voting on Oct. 17 and 24.
- Mail ballots must be received by the close of polls on Election Day.
- Ballot problems: voters can fix a missing signature or ID information on a mail ballot until three days after the election, per NCSL.
Frequently asked questions
Who is running against Jon Ossoff in 2026?
Rep. Mike Collins (R), who represents Georgia’s 10th Congressional District. He won the Republican nomination in a June 16 runoff against Derek Dooley.
What is the Cook rating for the Georgia Senate race?
Likely Democrat, a rating Cook assigned on Sept. 23, 2026, moving the race from Lean D.
When is the next Ossoff–Collins debate?
Oct. 13, 2026, at the Atlanta Press Club, the same day early voting opens in Georgia. They first debated on Oct. 8.
What happens if no one gets 50% in Georgia’s Senate race?
The top two finishers advance to a runoff. For the 2026 general election, it would be held Tuesday, Dec. 1.
When does early voting start in Georgia?
Oct. 13, 2026. It runs through Oct. 30, with required Saturday voting on Oct. 17 and 24.
Ossoff enters the final three weeks with a polling lead and a favorable rating from every major forecaster. In Georgia, though, leading is not the finish line; clearing 50% is, and that is the number to watch on election night.
Sources
- Cook Political Report: 2026 Senate race ratings
- Georgia Secretary of State: November 3, 2026 General Election
- Atlanta News First: Ossoff, Collins clash over Trump, economy and Iran war (Oct. 9, 2026)
- AJC: Jon Ossoff puts Mike Collins on trial in fiery Senate debate (Oct. 2026)
- Justia: Georgia Code § 21-2-495, Recounts