The Florida Governor's Race Is Weirder Than You Think
DeSantis is term-limited. Byron Donalds has Trump's endorsement and 46% of the primary. David Jolly — a former Republican congressman — switched parties to run as a Democrat. And a 31-year-old provocateur with Groyper ties and a Tucker Carlson endorsement is making noise on the fringe. Welcome to the Sunshine State.
Ron DeSantis reshaped Florida politics more than any governor since Jeb Bush. He stacked the state Supreme Court, redrew the congressional maps (twice), fought culture wars that made national headlines, and turned a swing state into one that voted for Trump by 13 points. Now he's leaving, and the race to succeed him reveals just how much of Florida's rightward shift was about DeSantis himself — and how much of it sticks.
The Republican Primary: Donalds and the Field
Rep. Byron Donalds is the prohibitive favorite. He has Trump's endorsement, 46% in the latest Emerson poll, and majority support among voters over 60 — the demographic that dominates Florida Republican primaries. If he wins the primary, he would become the first Black Republican governor in Florida history and only the second in the modern South.
His closest establishment competitors are Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former House Speaker Paul Renner, both polling at low single digits. DeSantis has pointedly declined to endorse anyone, even as speculation swirled about whether his wife Casey might enter the race. She hasn't.
Then there's James Fishback. The 31-year-old investment CEO is polling at 4% but generating disproportionate media attention through a strategy best described as online provocation. He received Tucker Carlson's endorsement in January. He's defended followers of far-right commentator Nick Fuentes, calling them "incredibly informed and insightful." He was banned from substitute teaching in Broward County after allegations he sexually groomed an underage girl. And during an April campaign stop, he told a Black man asking about those allegations that he "should be lynched."
Fishback's campaign exists in the post-Trump space where attention is currency and outrage is a viable growth strategy. Whether his support grows beyond 4% likely depends on whether the Donalds consolidation continues — or whether Florida's primary electorate has an appetite for something even more extreme than Trump-endorsed conservatism. Early evidence suggests no, but the August primary is still months away.
The Democratic Primary: Jolly's Gambit
David Jolly is running one of the more unusual campaigns in recent memory. A former Republican congressman from Pinellas County (2014-2017), he became a vocal Trump critic, left the GOP, and is now running for governor as a Democrat. He's the frontrunner on the Democratic side with 21% in Emerson polling — but 53% of Democratic primary voters are undecided.
His competitors include former Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings and a crowded field of lesser-known candidates. The Democratic primary is wide open, and Jolly's appeal rests on an untested theory: that a party-switcher can win over Florida Democrats who are desperate enough for a competitive candidate that they'll look past his Republican past.
The race is also shaped by redistricting. Jolly has been an outspoken critic of DeSantis's new congressional maps, and the governor's decision to ram through an aggressive gerrymander has energized Democratic base voters. But Florida's overall partisan lean — Trump +13 in 2024 — makes any Democratic path to the governor's mansion extremely narrow.
The DeSantis Shadow
The outgoing governor looms over every aspect of this race. His Supreme Court appointees (6 of 7) will likely decide the fate of the new congressional maps. His refusal to endorse keeps the GOP field fragmented. And his legacy — popular with the base, controversial nationally — is both the platform Donalds is running on and the record Jolly is running against. The winner of this race will inherit the most powerful governor's office in America.
November Outlook
Florida Lean R for governor is the consensus rating. Democrats haven't won a governor's race here since 1994 (Lawton Chiles). But DeSantis won his first term by only 32,000 votes in 2018, and the state's rapid population growth — especially among non-Cuban Hispanics and transplants from blue states — has made the electorate harder to model. If Democrats can nominate a candidate who unifies the party and the national environment stays as strong as current polls suggest, this race could be closer than the top-line numbers indicate.
The August 18 primary will clarify both fields. Until then, Florida remains what it always is: impossible to predict and impossible to ignore.
Key Dates
June 12: Candidate filing deadline (congressional and statewide). Aug. 18: Primary (both parties, all races). Nov. 3: General election. Cook Rating: Lean R. Sabato: Lean R.