Reporting as of October 22, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. With days to go, Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and state Rep. James Talarico (D) are tied in the newest poll, and Talarico holds narrow leads in the two others released since mid-October.
- Polls: Fox News has it tied 49–49; Emerson has Talarico up 48–46; Marist had him up 47–45 among likely voters.
- Ratings: Inside Elections moved the race to Toss-Up on October 20, so Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections now agree.
- No debate: Talarico held a CNN town hall on October 14; Paxton, who was invited, did not take part.
- Money: AdImpact counts about $500 million in spending and reservations, on top of a primary that cost more than $125 million.
- Turnout: Early voting opened October 19 with first-day records in Dallas and Harris counties.
The polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Talarico (D) | Paxton (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson (released Oct. 22) | Oct. 17–19 | 1,000 LV | 48 | 46 |
| Fox News (released Oct. 21) | Oct. 15–19 | 1,398 LV | 49 | 49 |
| Marist (released Oct. 14) | Oct. 8–11 | LV | 47 | 45 |
| Fox News (released Oct. 1) | Late Sept. | LV | 51 | 49 |
With undecided voters who lean toward a candidate included, Emerson’s margin narrows to 49–48. Every one of these results is inside the poll’s margin of error. The trend since September has been toward a closer race: Marist’s September survey of registered voters had Talarico ahead by six.
Ratings and forecasts
| Forecaster | Rating | Last change |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Aug. 20 (from Lean R) |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Before Oct. 14 |
| Inside Elections | Toss-Up | Oct. 20 (from Tilt R) |
| Decision Desk HQ forecast | Toss-Up | Oct. 22 |
Kalshi traders priced Talarico’s chances at about 68% on October 22, a sign that markets read the polling trend and the national environment more favorably for him than the polls alone suggest. Prediction markets are snapshots, not forecasts.
The debate that never happened
Talarico accepted three proposed debate dates (September 22, October 6 and October 13); Paxton never confirmed any of them. On October 8, Trump posted that Talarico should “immediately report to a debate stage” against Paxton, but no debate followed. Instead, Talarico held a roughly 90-minute CNN/Jubilee town hall in Fort Worth on October 14. He said he does not back abolishing ICE and supports oil and gas production alongside renewables. Paxton was invited and did not take part.
The money
AdImpact counts about $500 million in ad spending and reservations in the race, making it one of the most expensive Senate contests ever. That comes on top of the Republican primary, in which Paxton ousted Sen. John Cornyn 63.8% to 36.2% in the May 26 runoff after more than $125 million in spending, the most for any Senate primary in U.S. history.
Early voting
Texas early voting opened October 19 and runs through October 30. Dallas County set a first-day record of 76,079 votes, and Harris County set a first-day midterm record. Turnout records do not say who is winning, but they do say the electorate will be larger than in a typical Texas midterm, which is the scenario Democrats have been counting on.
What to watch on election night
Most Texas polls close at 7 p.m. Central (8 p.m. Eastern); El Paso and Hudspeth counties close at 7 p.m. Mountain (9 p.m. Eastern). Watch the margins in the Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio metros against Paxton’s margins in suburban collar counties and the Rio Grande Valley, where Republicans made big gains in 2024. A Talarico win almost certainly requires holding down those Latino-majority border counties as well as running up the score in the cities.
On October 20, Wedgewood Polls admitted that its polling data was not real. We do not cite its surveys. More from WCMU.
Frequently asked questions
Who is ahead in the Texas Senate race?
Nobody clearly. Fox News has it tied 49–49, Emerson has Talarico up 48–46, and Marist had him up 47–45. All are within the margin of error.
Will Paxton and Talarico debate?
No. Paxton never agreed to a debate. Talarico held a CNN town hall on October 14 that Paxton was invited to and skipped.
When does early voting end in Texas?
Friday, October 30. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
Texas is a true toss-up: the three newest polls are within two points, all three major raters agree, and turnout is running high. If Democrats win the Senate, it will very likely be because they won here or in Ohio, and in Texas the margin may come down to the Rio Grande Valley.
Sources
- Emerson College Polling: Texas 2026 (Oct. 22, 2026)
- USA Today via Yahoo: Fox News poll shows deadlocked Texas Senate race (Oct. 22, 2026)
- Marist Poll: Texas, October 2026
- Roll Call: Inside Elections rating changes (Oct. 20, 2026)
- Axios Houston: Talarico’s CNN/Jubilee town hall (Oct. 15, 2026)
- KSAT: Trump calls for debate Paxton has avoided (Oct. 8, 2026)
- Political.org: AdImpact cycle totals (Oct. 16, 2026)
- Texas Tribune: Early voting records (Oct. 20, 2026)
- Axios: Early voting data by state (Oct. 20, 2026)
- DeFiRate: 2026 midterm odds snapshot (Oct. 22, 2026)