Pennsylvania gives Democrats three of their likeliest House pickups in one state. Each district is held by a Republican who won in 2024 by roughly a point: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in the Lehigh Valley’s PA-07, Rep. Rob Bresnahan in northeastern Pennsylvania’s PA-08, and Rep. Scott Perry in south-central Pennsylvania’s PA-10.
When Cook Political Report updated its House ratings on September 25, all three were Toss-Ups. As of Cook’s October 9 chart, PA-07 and PA-10 are rated Lean Democrat and PA-08 remains a Toss-Up. Here is each race.
- PA-07: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) vs. firefighters’ union president Bob Brooks (D). Cook: Lean D (Oct. 9).
- PA-08: Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R) vs. Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D). Cook: Toss-Up (Oct. 9).
- PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) vs. former WGAL anchor Janelle Stelson (D), a 2024 rematch. Cook: Lean D (Oct. 9).
- All three Republicans won in 2024 with between 50.5% and 50.8% of the vote.
- Pennsylvania has no early voting; mail ballots must arrive by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
The three races at a glance
| District | Republican | Democrat | 2024 result | Cook (Oct. 9) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-07 | Rep. Ryan Mackenzie | Bob Brooks | Mackenzie 50.5–49.5 | Lean D |
| PA-08 | Rep. Rob Bresnahan | Paige Cognetti | Bresnahan 50.8–49.2 | Toss-Up |
| PA-10 | Rep. Scott Perry | Janelle Stelson | Perry 50.6–49.4 | Lean D |
PA-07: Mackenzie vs. Brooks
Cook: Lean D
The 7th covers the Lehigh Valley: all of Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties and part of Monroe County. Mackenzie, a former state representative, flipped it in 2024 by beating Democratic Rep. Susan Wild with 50.5%. He was unopposed in the May 19 primary.
Bob Brooks, president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association, won a four-way Democratic primary with 41.0%. The only public general-election poll we have found is an internal one: GBAO, a Democratic firm, had Brooks ahead 47–43 among likely voters in late June and early July. Treat a partisan poll from months ago with caution.
PA-08: Bresnahan vs. Cognetti
Cook: Toss-Up
The 8th takes in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre: all of Lackawanna, Pike and Wayne counties, plus parts of Luzerne and Monroe. Bresnahan, a businessman, unseated six-term Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in 2024 with 50.8%, and was unopposed for renomination.
Paige Cognetti has been mayor of Scranton since January 2020. She first won as an independent in a 2019 special election and was re-elected as a Democrat in 2021 with 72.5%. A Scranton mayor running in a district anchored in Lackawanna County gives this race an unusually local feel. It is the only one of the three that Cook still rates a pure Toss-Up.
PA-10: Perry vs. Stelson, round two
Cook: Lean D
Perry has represented this district, centered on the Harrisburg area, since 2013. He chaired the House Freedom Caucus in 2022 and 2023 and is a retired Army National Guard brigadier general who commanded an aviation battalion in Iraq. In 2024 he held off Janelle Stelson 50.6% to 49.4%, while Trump carried the district 52–47.
Stelson spent 26 years as an anchor at WGAL-TV in Lancaster before entering politics. She won the 2026 Democratic primary with 67.5% over Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas. Rematches of near-misses are a familiar pattern in midterms that favor the challenging party, which is part of why forecasters have moved this race.
Lean ratings mean forecasters see an edge, not a certainty. All three districts were decided by about a point two years ago, and public polling in them has been sparse. Expect late nights: Pennsylvania cannot begin processing mail ballots until Election Day morning.
Why these seats matter
Democrats need a net gain of three seats for a House majority. Cook’s Toss-Up and Lean columns are dominated by Republican-held seats, and Pennsylvania supplies three of them. If Democrats are winning the House comfortably, they are likely winning at least two of these; if Republicans hold all three, the majority is probably much closer. We lay out the full board in Cook’s House Toss-Ups and the math of a majority and the bigger picture in our House control guide.
Voting in Pennsylvania
- Registration deadline: Monday, Oct. 19.
- No early voting. You can request, complete and return a mail ballot in a single visit to your county election office until 5 p.m. Oct. 27.
- Mail ballots must arrive by 8 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. See our guide to early and mail voting.
- Ballot problems: whether you can fix a mail-ballot error depends on your county, since Pennsylvania leaves curing to counties.
Frequently asked questions
Are PA-07, PA-08 and PA-10 toss-ups?
As of Cook Political Report’s Oct. 9, 2026, ratings, PA-08 is a Toss-Up and PA-07 and PA-10 are Lean Democrat. All three were Toss-Ups in Cook’s Sept. 25 update.
Who is running in PA-10 in 2026?
Rep. Scott Perry (R) faces former WGAL anchor Janelle Stelson (D) in a rematch of 2024, when Perry won 50.6% to 49.4%.
Who is running in PA-08 in 2026?
Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R) faces Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D).
Who is running in PA-07 in 2026?
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) faces Bob Brooks (D), president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association.
When must Pennsylvania mail ballots arrive?
By 8 p.m. on Election Day, Nov. 3, 2026. Pennsylvania does not count ballots that arrive later, even if postmarked on time.
Pennsylvania’s three Republican-held battlegrounds were all decided by about a point in 2024. Cook now leans two of them toward Democrats and keeps Scranton’s PA-08 a coin flip. If the House is close, these are among the first districts to watch.