Reporting as of October 22, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running to finish the last two years of JD Vance’s term. His opponent, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), lost his own seat by about 3.6 points in 2024 and is trying to become one of the few senators to return after a defeat. It is the most expensive Senate race of the cycle by most measures.
- Polls: Fox News has Brown ahead 52–47; Marist has him up 48–44 among likely voters.
- Ratings: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all rate it a Toss-Up. Decision Desk HQ also calls it a Toss-Up.
- Money: AdImpact puts total ad spending at about $423 million, $350 million of it from outside groups.
- No debate: None is planned, according to Axios.
- Spillover: Brown has pressed Husted to condemn the Ramaswamy ad featuring Amy Acton’s mother. Husted said he would not have run it.
The polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Brown (D) | Husted (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News (released Oct. 21) | Oct. 15–19 | 1,592 voters | 52 | 47 |
| Marist (released Oct. 20) | Oct. 15–18 | LV | 48 | 44 |
| CNN/SSRS (released Oct. 8) | Early Oct. | — | 49 | 43 |
| Quantus | Sept. | 695 LV | 47 | 47 |
Brown has led every major public poll released in October. Not every pollster agrees: Quantus found a tie in September, and an ActiVote survey fielded September 26 to October 18 had Husted narrowly ahead, 50.2% to 49.8%. The race remains close enough that a normal polling error in Republicans’ favor, of the kind Ohio saw in 2016, 2020 and 2024, would flip it.
Ratings and forecasts
| Forecaster | Rating | Last change |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | 2026 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 14 list |
| Inside Elections | Toss-Up | Sept. 10 (from Tilt R) |
| Decision Desk HQ forecast | Toss-Up | Oct. 22 |
Kalshi traders priced Brown’s chances at about 70% on October 22.
The money
Brown outraised Husted nearly five to one in the third quarter, but outside groups, which have spent far more than either campaign, have kept Husted competitive on the air.
The governor’s race is spilling over
On October 20, Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign confirmed a $4 million ad in which Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged mother calls her a liar. Brown called the ad “disgusting” and urged Husted to condemn it. Husted told the Associated Press, “I would not have run that ad.” Gov. Mike DeWine went further and asked for it to come down. Ticket-splitting is rarer than it used to be, so a backlash at the top of the Republican ticket could matter for Husted too. Read our full story on the ad.
Early voting and what to watch
Ohio’s in-person early voting opened October 6 and runs through November 1. The AP reported that more than 676,000 Ohioans had voted by October 21. Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on November 3. Brown’s past wins depended on holding down Republican margins in industrial northeast Ohio, around Youngstown and the Mahoning Valley, while running up big margins in Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati. Watch those counties first.
Frequently asked questions
Why is there an Ohio Senate election in 2026?
It is a special election for the rest of JD Vance’s term, which runs through January 2029. Husted was appointed to the seat after Vance became vice president.
Who is leading the Ohio Senate race?
Sherrod Brown leads the two newest polls, 52–47 (Fox News) and 48–44 (Marist, likely voters). All three major raters still call it a Toss-Up.
Will Brown and Husted debate?
No debate is planned, according to Axios.
Brown has the polling lead and the fundraising edge; Husted has the state’s partisan lean and an outside-money advantage. That is the profile of a genuine toss-up in a state that has repeatedly been more Republican on Election Day than its polls.
Sources
- Fox News: Ohio poll results (Oct. 21, 2026)
- Marist Poll: Ohio, October 2026
- Spectrum News: Ohio Senate third-quarter money (Oct. 15, 2026)
- Axios Columbus: No Ohio Senate debates planned (Oct. 21, 2026)
- AP via PBS: Ramaswamy campaign produced ad with Acton’s mother (Oct. 21, 2026)
- Political Wire: Five Senate races are now Toss-Ups, per Sabato (Oct. 14, 2026)
- Decision Desk HQ: 2026 Senate forecast (Oct. 22, 2026)
- DeFiRate: 2026 midterm odds snapshot (Oct. 22, 2026)