El-Sayed vs. Rogers: Michigan’s Senate Race After the Final Debate

Reporting as of October 22, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3

Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring, and the race to replace him is the one Democratic-held Senate seat Cook Political Report rates a Toss-Up. Abdul El-Sayed (D), a physician and former Detroit public health director who upset Rep. Haley Stevens in the August 4 primary, faces former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the ex-House Intelligence Committee chairman who lost the 2024 Senate race by about 0.3 points.

The polls

Fox News’ August poll had Rogers ahead 51–47, so the race has moved slightly toward El-Sayed since the summer, but no public poll has shown either candidate with a lead outside the margin of error since September.

Ratings and forecasts

Kalshi traders priced El-Sayed’s chances at about 70% on October 22.

Two debates, both bitter

The first debate, October 8 in Grand Rapids, was the roughest of the cycle: Rogers called El-Sayed a “con man” and, without evidence, tied him to terrorist groups, and El-Sayed called Rogers “desperate” and “weak.” The final debate, October 21 on WXYZ in Detroit, covered tariffs, the Iran war and fuel prices, with Michigan gas at about $4.44 a gallon. Rogers suggested El-Sayed has Hamas-like supporters and questioned whether he could obtain a security clearance; El-Sayed called the line shameful.

In the days before that debate, El-Sayed acknowledged a relative’s 2016 lawsuit over a terrorism watchlist, and Rogers accused him of lying about family ties. On policy, Rogers has broken with Trump on the 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and has said the Iran war should end quickly, while El-Sayed supports abolishing ICE and ending aid to Israel.

Late Republican money

Trump endorsed Rogers in mid-October, and MAGA Inc., the main pro-Trump super PAC, announced a $25 million ad buy for him on October 21, one of the largest late single-race commitments of the cycle. AdImpact has counted about $168 million in combined spending by the two parties in Michigan. El-Sayed won his primary despite being outspent roughly eight to one.

What to watch

Michigan’s polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern (9 p.m. Eastern in four western Upper Peninsula counties on Central time). Watch turnout in Detroit and Wayne County, and the margin in Oakland County, the affluent suburban county Stevens represented. Rogers needs to run well ahead of Trump’s 2024 margins in Macomb County and the western suburbs of Grand Rapids.

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