Reporting as of October 22, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
Sen. Susan Collins (R) is the only Republican senator on the ballot this year in a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024. Her opponent, Troy Jackson (D), a logger from Allagash and former president of the Maine Senate, was nominated by the state party on July 25 after the primary winner, Graham Platner, withdrew.
- Polls: Jackson led the last two public polls we could confirm, 50–46 (Washington Post-Schar) and 51–47 (Marist). We found no new poll released October 13–22.
- Debates: Four held, the last on October 15 in Bangor, where Jackson told Collins to “shut up.”
- Money: More than $200 million in spending and reservations, per AdImpact.
- History: Collins trailed in most public polls in 2020 and won by nearly 9 points.
The polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jackson (D) | Collins (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Post-Schar (released Oct. 9) | Early Oct. | — | 50 | 46 |
| Marist (released Oct. 6) | Late Sept.–early Oct. | LV | 51 | 47 |
| UNH | Sept. 17–21 | — | 51 | 47 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | Sept. | 650 LV | 48 | 43 |
| NYT/Siena/Portland Press Herald | Sept. 15–22 | — | 46 | 49 |
Marist found only 1% of likely voters undecided, an unusually small number that suggests opinions about Collins, a fixture of Maine politics since 1997, are largely set. A Suffolk poll fielded October 8–11 reportedly had Jackson ahead 49–47, but we could not confirm its release date.
In 2020, nearly every public poll showed Collins trailing Sara Gideon. She won by 8.6 points. Maine also uses ranked-choice voting in Senate general elections, so if no candidate wins a majority of first choices, minor-candidate ballots are redistributed.
Ratings and forecasts
| Forecaster | Rating | Last change |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | 2026 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 14 list |
| Decision Desk HQ forecast | Toss-Up | Oct. 22 |
Kalshi traders priced Jackson’s chances at about 66% on October 22.
Four debates, getting sharper each time
- Oct. 6Collins distanced herself from Trump (“not exactly his favorite senator”); Jackson tied her to his agenda, the Kavanaugh confirmation and ICE funding.
- Oct. 8Jackson accused Collins and her husband of profiting from the Iran war through stock holdings. Collins called it “absolutely outrageous” and demanded an apology; she did not get one.
- Oct. 13Collins attacked Jackson for not having filed an FEC report. Jackson called ICE a “rogue agency” and repeated his call to abolish it.
- Oct. 15 · BangorAfter Collins tied a heckler, a 19-year-old Bowdoin student, to his campaign, Jackson told her to “shut up.” He later said on CNN that he had no regrets.
The two also fought over Collins’s record with the president: Jackson says she votes with Trump 96% of the time; Collins puts it at 72%. A CQ Roll Call analysis found about 95% for the first seven months of 2025.
The money and the closing argument
AdImpact counts more than $200 million in spending and reservations in the race, extraordinary for a state of 1.4 million people. Collins’s closing argument is seniority: as Appropriations Committee chair, she says she delivers for Maine. Former Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat-turned-independent, campaigned with her on October 21. Jackson’s is that a vote for Collins is a vote to keep Republicans in control of the Senate.
What to watch
Maine’s polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Collins has historically run far ahead of other Republicans in the rural 2nd Congressional District, which includes Jackson’s hometown of Allagash. If Jackson can hold her margin there down to roughly Trump’s level, Collins is in trouble. In-person absentee voting at town and city halls ends October 29.
Frequently asked questions
Who is leading the Maine Senate race?
Troy Jackson led the last public polls we could confirm (Washington Post-Schar 50–46, Marist 51–47), but Collins trailed in most 2020 polls and won comfortably.
Why isn’t Graham Platner the nominee?
Platner won the June primary but withdrew on July 8. The Maine Democratic Party nominated Troy Jackson on July 25.
Does Maine use ranked-choice voting for Senate?
Yes, in general elections for federal office, including the Senate.
On paper, Collins is in the worst position of her career: trailing in the polls, in a Democratic-leaning year, in a state Harris won. But no Republican has a better record of beating her polls. Maine is a Toss-Up for a reason.
Sources
- WBUR: Collins–Jackson final debate recap (Oct. 16, 2026)
- Newsweek: Troy Jackson has no regrets (Oct. 19, 2026)
- News From The States: 3 takeaways from the third debate (Oct. 13, 2026)
- Forbes: Jackson leads in Maine (Oct. 9, 2026)
- Fox News: Manchin campaigns with Collins (Oct. 21, 2026)
- Political.org: AdImpact cycle totals (Oct. 16, 2026)
- Political Wire: Five Senate races are now Toss-Ups, per Sabato (Oct. 14, 2026)
- Decision Desk HQ: 2026 Senate forecast (Oct. 22, 2026)
- DeFiRate: 2026 midterm odds snapshot (Oct. 22, 2026)