Paxton vs. Talarico: Can Democrats Win a Texas Senate Seat?
The most expensive Senate primary in American history is over. Ken Paxton crushed John Cornyn 62.8% to 37.2% on May 26 — a 25.6-point rout that exceeded every public poll and ended the career of the longest-serving senator in Texas history.
Now comes the question nobody expected to ask this cycle: Can Democrat James Talarico actually win?
The answer, remarkably, is not an automatic no. Texas is rated Lean R, not Safe R. And the general election matchup — a polarizing attorney general carrying an extraordinary amount of personal and legal baggage versus a young, telegenic Democrat — could produce one of the most competitive Texas Senate races in a generation.
Paxton’s Baggage: An Inventory
No major-party Senate nominee in modern Texas history enters a general election with this much damage already baked in. The list is remarkable in its breadth:
Paxton’s Liabilities
Securities fraud indictment — Paxton was indicted in 2015 on two counts of securities fraud and one count of failing to register with the state securities board. The case dragged on for nearly a decade before being settled in 2024 with no admission of guilt. He paid a $300,000 fine.
Impeachment — The Texas House impeached Paxton in May 2023 on 20 articles, including bribery, abuse of office, and obstruction of justice. The Texas Senate acquitted him in September 2023, with all 12 Democrats and 2 Republicans voting to convict. The impeachment centered on allegations that Paxton used his office to benefit a political donor, Nate Paul.
Pending divorce — Paxton and his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, are in divorce proceedings. Angela Paxton notably recused herself from the impeachment trial. The divorce has fueled tabloid coverage and raised questions about whether testimony from the proceedings could surface during the campaign.
FBI investigation — Multiple former top aides reported Paxton to the FBI in 2020, alleging bribery and abuse of office related to his relationship with Nate Paul. The federal investigation has not resulted in charges but remains open.
Senate GOP leaders spent months lobbying Trump to endorse Cornyn, explicitly warning that Paxton’s baggage would make him a weaker general election candidate. Trump endorsed Paxton anyway on May 19, calling him a “true MAGA Warrior.” The endorsement supercharged what was already a commanding Paxton lead.
Who Is James Talarico?
Talarico, 35, is a former state representative and former middle school teacher from Round Rock. He won the Democratic nomination without a serious primary challenger and has positioned himself as a moderate populist — pro-public-education, anti-corporate, with a biography that connects to suburban voters.
His vulnerabilities are real: Republicans have already tagged him with comments about a “culture of violence” in policing, and his progressive record in the Texas House gives the GOP attack surface. But in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, Talarico’s youth and energy represent a generational contrast to a nominee under perpetual legal clouds.
Early general election polling, conducted before Trump’s Paxton endorsement, showed Talarico within single digits of both Republican candidates. No post-runoff general election polls have been released yet, but Silver Bulletin noted on May 27 that Trump’s own approval rating is underwater in Texas — a state he carried by 6 points in 2024.
The Math: Is Texas Actually Competitive?
Texas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1988. Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 points in 2018, and Colin Allred lost to Ted Cruz by 4.6 points in 2024. The trend line is real but has consistently fallen short.
What’s different this time:
The nominee is damaged. Cornyn and Cruz, whatever their flaws, entered their general elections with clean legal records. Paxton enters with a settled securities fraud case, an impeachment acquittal, a pending divorce, and an open FBI investigation. Democratic ad-makers are salivating.
The national environment is toxic for the GOP. Trump’s approval is at 31–39% depending on the pollster. Gas prices are above $4.50 nationally and even higher in Texas. The Iran war is deeply unpopular. The generic ballot shows Democrats +6 to +8. Every midterm headwind is blowing in Talarico’s direction.
The primary was a bloodbath. Over $125 million was spent in the Paxton-Cornyn primary — the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history. Cornyn’s supporters are demoralized. Whether the establishment wing of the Texas GOP rallies behind Paxton or sits on its hands could determine the margin.
Texas suburbs are shifting. The growth corridors around Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio have been trending Democratic for a decade. Harris County (Houston) went for Biden by 13 points in 2020 and Harris by 8 in 2024. Paxton’s brand of combative MAGA politics plays well in rural Texas but poorly in the suburbs that are growing fastest.
The Counterargument: It’s Still Texas
Trump won Texas by 6 points in 2024. The state’s electorate is structurally Republican — high turnout among rural white voters, suppressed turnout among young and Latino voters, and a massive geographic advantage. No amount of Paxton baggage changes the fact that a Democrat running statewide in Texas needs to win independents by double digits and turn out base voters at presidential-year levels in a midterm.
The Cook Political Report rates the seat Lean R, and that’s probably right. Democrats would need a near-perfect campaign, a continued deterioration in the national environment, and some combination of Paxton self-inflicted wounds to close the gap.
But “near-perfect campaign against a damaged opponent in a wave year” is not a fantasy. It’s exactly what happened in 2018 races across the country — including in Texas, where O’Rourke nearly pulled it off against a much stronger Republican nominee.
What to Watch
Post-runoff polling. The first Paxton-vs-Talarico polls will set the narrative. If Talarico is within 5 points, national Democratic money will flood in. If he’s down 10+, the DSCC will look elsewhere.
Cornyn world. Does the Texas Republican establishment — the donor class, the business community, the moderate suburban Republicans who backed Cornyn — rally behind Paxton or quietly sit this one out? In the 2023 impeachment, 60% of the Texas House voted to impeach Paxton. Those fractures haven’t healed.
Paxton’s divorce proceedings. Any revelations from the ongoing divorce could create October surprise dynamics at any point in the campaign.
Trump’s approval in Texas. If it stays underwater, Paxton’s margin of safety shrinks dramatically. If it recovers, Texas goes back to being a reach.
Either way, this is the most interesting Texas Senate general election in decades. And that, by itself, is a win for Democrats — because every dollar Republicans spend defending Texas is a dollar they can’t spend attacking in Maine, Michigan, or Ohio.
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