Cook’s 22 House Toss-Ups and the Math of a Majority, Five Weeks Out
Cook Political Report moved 15 House races toward Democrats on September 25, and the other major raters moved the same way. Here are the 22 seats rated Toss-Up, the seats just beyond them, and the numbers behind the forecasts.
The House currently seats 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats and one independent, California Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the GOP in March and still caucuses with Republicans. Two seats are vacant: TX-23, previously Republican, and FL-20, previously Democratic. Democrats won 215 seats in 2024 and need 218 for a majority, a net gain of three. Five weeks out, most forecasters have them favored to get there, though by different margins.
The board
| Rating | Seats |
|---|---|
| Solid D | 185 |
| Likely D | 12 |
| Lean D | 11 |
| Toss-Up | 22 |
| Lean R | 10 |
| Likely R | 19 |
| Solid R | 176 |
Cook favors Democrats in 208 seats and Republicans in 205. Split the Toss-Ups evenly and Democrats reach 219, a majority with one seat to spare. Win them all and they reach 230. The September 25 update, which moved 15 races toward Democrats, carried the headline that the GOP is “on track to lose” its majority.
The 22 Toss-Ups
| State | Districts |
|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | PA-07, PA-08, PA-10 |
| Florida | FL-14, FL-22, FL-25 (new map) |
| Iowa | IA-01, IA-03 |
| Michigan | MI-07, MI-10 |
| Ohio | OH-07, OH-09 |
| Texas | TX-15, TX-34 |
| Arizona | AZ-06 |
| California | CA-22 |
| Colorado | CO-08 |
| New York | NY-17 |
| North Carolina | NC-11 |
| Virginia | VA-02 |
| Washington | WA-03 |
| Wisconsin | WI-03 |
Most of the Toss-Ups are Republican-held. Cook’s chart and its written analysis give slightly different splits: 16 or 17 Republican seats against 5 or 6 Democratic ones. Three stories stand out.
OH-07 · Rep. Max Miller (R) vs. Brian Poindexter (D)
A Cleveland-area Republican seat that became competitive this summer. The House Ethics Committee opened an investigation on August 4, at Miller’s own request, into allegations by his former wife of domestic violence, abuse and drug use. The allegations are contested and unadjudicated, and Miller denies them. He did not withdraw before Ohio’s August 10 deadline, so Republicans cannot replace him. The committee let a September 4 deadline pass and has put off findings until after the election. Speaker Mike Johnson backs Miller. An early-August co/efficient poll had Poindexter, a union ironworker, ahead 47–33. More on how the GOP lost its window.
NC-11 · an open seat after a censure recommendation
Rep. Chuck Edwards ended his re-election bid on August 5, after the House Ethics Committee recommended his censure. Republicans named Jennifer Balkcom as their replacement nominee on August 11. Cook rates the seat a Toss-Up.
WA-03 · Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) vs. John Braun (R)
One of the Democrats’ most exposed seats. The two advanced from Washington’s top-two primary separated by just 263 votes.
Just beyond the Toss-Ups
Cook rates NE-02, AZ-01 and NJ-07 Lean D, along with California’s CA-48. All four are Republican-held (NE-02 and AZ-01 are open seats), which makes them the likeliest Democratic pickups beyond the Toss-Up column. NC-01 is Lean R. AL-02, redrawn about 22 points to the right under the map the Supreme Court allowed in June, is Likely R at Cook, but Sabato’s Crystal Ball narrowed it to Leans R on September 11. Freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D) faces Trump-endorsed state Rep. Rhett Marques.
Everyone is moving the same way
This is not one forecaster’s read. Inside Elections’ August and September House updates moved races toward Democrats:
Its August 26 update had moved seven more House races in the same direction. Inside Elections’ own projection is a Democratic gain of two to ten seats. Sabato’s Crystal Ball followed with its own rounds of changes toward Democrats, including 11 more on September 29.
What the forecasts say
The fundamentals point the same way. The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms, and Trump’s approval is at the low point of his term (more on the national environment).
Three things that changed the board
Missouri reversed. The state’s courts sent the 2025 map to a referendum, so November runs on the 2022 lines. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s MO-05, drawn to flip under the new map, is Solid D again. The full explainer.
Record turnover. NPR counts 60 House members retiring or running for another office and 11 who lost primaries. Including resignations and deaths, it counts at least 83 guaranteed open seats outside Louisiana.
The specials kept coming. Aisha Wahab (D) won CA-14 53.1%–46.9% and was sworn in September 2, and Everton Blair Jr. (D) won GA-13 and was sworn in September 1. At the state level, Democrat Brandon Dukes flipped a Pennsylvania House seat in a district Trump carried by 18 points. Ballotpedia counts 13 Republican-held state legislative seats flipped by Democrats in special elections since January 2025.
Sources
- Cook Political Report: House race ratings
- Cook Political Report: 15 ratings shift toward Democrats (Sept. 25)
- Roll Call: Inside Elections rating changes (Sept. 22)
- Roll Call: Inside Elections rating changes (Aug. 26)
- Alabama Political Reporter: Sabato narrows GOP edge in AL-02 (Sept. 11)
- NPR via HPPR: record departures and defeats (Sept. 16)
- House Press Gallery: party breakdown
- Decision Desk HQ: House forecast