Guides, research, and insights from Election Tracker Live — 2026 Midterm Elections Dashboard
64 articlesKen Paxton defeated John Cornyn 62.8% to 37.2% in the Texas GOP Senate runoff on May 26, 2026. Full results, House runoffs, AG race, and what it means for November.
Thomas Massie voted his conscience on everything. AIPAC and Trump spent $32.6M to end his career. What his defeat says about the modern GOP.
Georgia has both a GOP governor runoff and a GOP Senate runoff on June 16 while Democrats coast untouched.
Gas prices hit the highest of 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Summer driving season hasn't even started.
Democrats have a D+6 to D+8 generic ballot lead. But mid-decade gerrymandering has added 17 seats to the GOP advantage. Can a wave overcome a rigged map?
Trump has hit 31% approval — the lowest of either term. What the data says about November.
Follow the money in the most expensive Senate primary ever. Where $125M went and what it bought.
Christine Drazan lost by 3.5 points in 2022's three-way race. This time it's a direct rematch — no spoiler. Oregon hasn't elected an R governor since 1982, but Kotek is vulnerabl
Trump's net approval has hit -20.1, a new second-term low. Cost of living approval is at -41.8. Here's what the numbers mean for November.
Mid-decade gerrymandering has given the GOP a net 8-seat structural advantage. The Virginia ruling made it worse. But at -20 approval, maps may not be enough.
Mitch McConnell's retirement opens a seat that hasn't been contested without an incumbent since 1972. Here's who's running and whether Democrats have a shot.
Democrats are favored to retake the House, but redistricting means they need D+4 nationally. Current polls are close to that threshold. Here's the full picture.
Georgia was supposed to be Republicans' easiest Senate pickup. Instead, a fractured primary, no Trump endorsement, and a $31M Democratic war chest have turned it into a liability.
At $4.52 per gallon and rising, gas prices from the Iran war are transforming the 2026 midterms. The electoral fallout is hitting every battleground state.
Full results from May 19 primaries: Trump ousts Rep. Massie in KY-04, Georgia governor and Senate races head to June 16 runoffs, Alabama Senate runoff set, Drazan wins Oregon. Anal
Democrats need to flip 4 Senate seats to win the majority. North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and one long shot. Here's where each race stands.
Texas's May 26 GOP Senate runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton has devolved into scorched-earth warfare, with national implications for Senate control.
It's been a month since Tony Gonzales resigned. Gov. Abbott still hasn't called a special election. The delay is a feature, not a bug — and it's preserving the GOP's razor-thin H
Generic ballot D+10. Trump approval at record lows. Gas at $4.23. Redistricting +9 for the GOP. Dem special election overperformance at +12. Five metrics that tell you where Novemb
Thomas Massie faces $34 million in outside spending, Trump's wrath, and AIPAC's war chest in the most expensive House primary in American history. Here's why Kentucky's 4th Distric
Kentucky's May 19 primary features the most expensive House race in history, the battle to succeed Mitch McConnell, and a Democratic Senate primary that could determine November's
The second-most House retirements since 1992, with Republicans leaving at nearly 2-to-1 over Democrats. What the exodus tells us about the party's internal health and the midterm b
From Louisiana v. Callais to South Carolina's special session, the mid-decade redistricting wars have reshaped the House map. A comprehensive analysis of every state, every map, an
The Missouri Supreme Court heard oral arguments and issued three unanimous rulings the same afternoon, locking in a GOP map that targets Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City seat.
Governor, Senate, and 14 House seats on the ballot. Record early voting. Crowded primaries on both sides. Georgia's May 19 primary is the marquee event of the midterm season.
The SC Senate blocked redistricting 29-17. Two days later, Gov. McMaster called a special session anyway. Inside the fight to eliminate Jim Clyburn's seat — and the GOP senators
Denise Powell won NE-02's razor-thin Democratic primary with $5.6M in outside spending. She'll face Trump-endorsed Brinker Harding in a district that could decide the House majorit
Alabama's May 19 primary is the first election held after SCOTUS cleared a redrawn map under the Callais ruling. Rep. Shomari Figures' seat is in the crosshairs. Here's what the re
Virginia Democrats filed an emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to reinstate their redistricting referendum. The state court struck it down 4-3. Here's why the appeal faces
The Supreme Court cleared Alabama to revert to a single majority-Black congressional district, threatening Rep. Shomari Figures' seat just 8 days before the state's primary. Here's
Nebraska and West Virginia held primaries on May 13. Pete Ricketts won the GOP Senate nod but faces independent Dan Osborn in November. Don Bacon's open NE-02 seat drew a crowded D
Gas has hit $4.39 nationally, with three states above $5 a gallon. Trump's approval has cratered to 34%. The war he launched on February 28 was supposed to last six weeks. Here's h
In Louisiana v. Callais, the Supreme Court gutted Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in a 6-3 ruling that could reshape Congress for a generation. Here's what it means for 2026.
Florida's legislature passed Gov. DeSantis's congressional map in 72 hours, targeting 4 Democratic seats. But analysts warn the aggressive gerrymander could backfire.
Cornyn and Paxton battle in a May 26 runoff while Democrat James Talarico leads both in polls and raised a record $27M in Q1. Could Texas flip blue for the first time since 1988?
An oyster farmer and a sitting governor are in a bruising Democratic primary to take on Susan Collins. Polling, fundraising, and what it all means for November.
Iowa's state auditor leads GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra by 12 points in a state Trump won by 13. The governor's race is officially a barnburner.
Early voting is underway. The governor's race is a free-for-all. The Senate GOP primary is a three-way split. Here's your guide to Georgia's May 19 primary.
Byron Donalds leads with Trump's endorsement. David Jolly switched parties to run as a Democrat. A Groyper-adjacent provocateur is making noise at 4%. Welcome to Florida.
Virginia voters approved a Democratic redistricting amendment by a 3-point margin on April 21, 2026. Less than 24 hours later, a Tazewell County judge declared the result void. Ins
President Trump floated canceling the 2026 midterm elections twice in January — at the Kennedy Center and in a Reuters interview. Election experts and state officials explain why
Tony Gonzales resigned amid a sexual misconduct scandal. Now a YouTuber and gun manufacturer faces a public school teacher in one of the most unexpected races of 2026.
From gas prices to Gen Z polling to special election swings, these are the 10 data points that tell you everything about where the 2026 midterms are headed.
The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. 2026 has none of the conditions that produced the two exceptions. Here's the history and what it means.
217 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 1 Independent, 3 vacancies. Speaker Johnson can lose exactly one vote. How the House became ungovernable.
The Iran war spiked gas to $4/gallon and oil past $100/barrel. 69% of Americans cite fuel prices as their top concern. How the conflict is reshaping the 2026 midterm elections.
8 in 10 Gen Z members say the country is on the wrong track — including half of young Republicans. Youth primary turnout is surging. Here's what it means for the midterms.
On April 14, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) both resigned from Congress amid sexual misconduct allegations. The fallout reshaped two races and the House ma
Democrats have flipped 30 state legislative seats since Trump took office. Republicans have flipped zero. An 11-point average overperformance in 2026 special elections is the bigge
Eric Swalwell was leading the polls. Then sexual assault allegations ended his campaign overnight. Now 61 candidates, Trump's endorsement, and a top-two primary threaten Democratic
Virginia voters decide today whether to approve a Democratic-drawn congressional map that could give Democrats a 10-1 advantage in the state's House delegation. Everything you need
Six states have new congressional maps. More are coming. Trump started it. Democrats retaliated. The courts are split. Here's the state-by-state guide to the redistricting wars of
The complete 2026 primary election calendar. Every state, every date, every key race — sortable, filterable, and updated in real time. Bookmark this page.
The complete guide to 2026 election night poll closing times. When every state's polls close, adjusted to Eastern time. Know exactly when to expect results for the races that matte
Abortion rights in Virginia and Nevada. A $15 minimum wage in Oklahoma. Marijuana battles in Idaho. Missouri trying to repeal its own abortion amendment. The complete 2026 ballot m
He lost by 3.5 points in 2024. Now Sherrod Brown is running again — in a state that's moved 11 points right — and the polls say he might actually win. Here's how.
Detroit's three-term mayor left the Democratic Party, raised $5 million from Michigan donors, and is polling in a three-way dead heat for governor. Michigan has never elected an in
Both Joni Ernst and Kim Reynolds are leaving. Iowa hasn't had open races for governor AND Senate on the same ballot since 1968. Here's the full field, the domino effects, and why D
Susan Collins is trailing in polls, underwater with independents by 30 points, and 71% of Mainers say she doesn't deserve re-election. Can the Senate's most famous centrist survive
A four-term senator vs. an impeached AG facing securities fraud charges. Trump hasn't endorsed either. The May 26 runoff could determine whether Texas — and the Senate — flip b
The Ohio Coalition to End Qualified Immunity is racing to collect 413,488 signatures by July 5, 2026 to put a constitutional amendment on the November ballot. Here's what the amend
Amy Acton has erased Vivek Ramaswamy's double-digit lead in Ohio's governor race. A deep dive into the polls, the money, and why Democrats think they can win their first statewide
James Talarico won the Texas Democratic Senate primary. Now the former middle school teacher faces either John Cornyn or Ken Paxton in November — and early polls show him leading
James Fishback is running for Florida governor on rage bait, anti-AI populism, and Waffle House bans. Inside the strangest — and most revealing — campaign of 2026.
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