Susan Collins has won five consecutive Senate elections in Maine. She has survived the Kavanaugh backlash, the impeachment votes, and two previous cycles where Democrats declared her seat a top target. She has $10 million in cash on hand and a three-decade incumbency advantage.
And she may be about to lose to an oyster farmer.
The Platner Phenomenon
Graham Platner is a 40-year-old Marine combat veteran who served three tours in Iraq and one in Afghanistan before returning to Sullivan, Maine, to run an oyster company. He chairs the local planning board. He has never held elected office. He raised $1 million in his first nine days as a candidate, with an average donation of $33.
His polling lead is staggering. Platner leads Collins by roughly 7 points in aggregated general election polling. In the Democratic primary, a UNH survey showed him crushing Gov. Janet Mills 58% to 24%, with 14% undecided. Mills, who had the backing of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has struggled to generate enthusiasm against Platner’s populist energy.
Sanders endorsed him. Warren endorsed him. Heinrich and Whitehouse held a DC fundraiser for him on June 2. The grassroots left has adopted him as the archetype of the anti-establishment candidate they’ve been searching for.
The Controversies
Platner’s rapid rise has brought equally rapid scrutiny. In recent weeks, he has had to:
None of this has moved the polls. The UNH survey was conducted during the height of the Reddit and tattoo controversies, and Platner still led Mills by 34 points. His supporters appear to view the attacks as exactly what the establishment would do to an outsider — which, in the current political environment, may actually help him.
The Collins campaign is clearly betting that these issues will matter more in a general election than a primary. Mills ran a massive ad buy highlighting the Reddit posts; it didn’t work. But Collins, with her centrist brand and decades of constituent service, is a very different opponent than a sitting governor running from behind.
June 9: The Primary
The Maine Democratic primary is five days away. If the polling holds, Platner wins going away. Mills’ only hope is that undecided voters break heavily her way — possible, but there’s no historical pattern to support it when the trailing candidate is at 24%.
The general election will be conducted under Maine’s ranked-choice voting system, which adds genuine unpredictability. Collins could benefit if moderate voters rank her above Platner, or it could help Platner consolidate progressive and independent support. Maine voted for Harris by 7 points in 2024, and 71% of Mainers say Collins doesn’t deserve re-election.
The stakes are clear: Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections all rate this race as a Toss-Up. Democrats see it as perhaps their single best pickup opportunity. Republicans see it as the seat they can least afford to lose. And the primary is in five days.